2010 Statewide Elections in Maps A look back at the last election cycle and how things played out.
Here is a map of the Average Democratic Preformance for all Statewide Candidates in 2010.
Here is the Gubernatorial Race. Notice how Andrew Cuomo won most rural and urban communities, with the exception of the most conservative towns in the Southern Adirondacks, Catskill Mountains, and also Western NY, where hometown favorite Carl Paladino snapped up many votes.
In Competitive State Senate Elections (which there many in 2010), Democrats won over many small towns in Upstate New York. That said, the votes that Democrats won, often where not enough to offset the more populated areas where Republicans won. Votes on third party lines (not included) also helped win Republicans over in certain districts.
The same can be said with the State Assembly. Despite winning far fewer towns, they kept a strong majority, in part thanks to their strong New York City base, and fushion candidates, running on multiple lines not shown on this map.
I was studying these maps I made up the other day of the top of the ticket candidates in New York State from 2006-2010, e.g. Spitzer-Faso, Obama-McCain, and Cuomo-Paladino. One could easily to come to conclusion that Democratic Gubernatorial candidates of recent are more popular in Upstate NY then Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama who ran in 2008.
In the 2006 Spitzer-Faso race, Spitzer did very well except in Western NY, especially in the Southern Tier of NY. Most of the eastern half of state he won, often with 60% plus of vote, except for the most Republican areas of Adirondacks and places were John Faso once represented as Assemblyman — parts of Columbia County, Greene County, and Schoharie County.
Andrew Cuomo did comparatively poorly in much of Rural New York, while winning many rural communities, losing far more then his predecesor Eliot Spitzer won in 2006. Many of the anti-rural community policies persued by Eliot Spitzer probably did not win the Democratic Party friends in those areas. Andrew Cuomo did increase his strength in the North Country, most notably winning by strong margins in parts of Franklin County and South-Western Clinton County, not known for electing Democrats in the past.
Western NY outside of urban centers, is solidly Republican, and if anything is becoming more solidly Republican. It seems likely that Democrats will have a hard time making inroads in this area, if state and national trends continue.
No current legislative district in Albany County recieved less then 50% a 2010 Average Democrats Performance. That said, with swing and other factors (e.g. candidate quality, local issues), certain Democrats are expected to lose races that a Generic Democrat could have won in the same location.
…However, In Many of Those Districts, Swing Is Very High.
In the suburban districts, while many may have gone strongly for Governor Cuomo, many chose to vote for Republicans for State Assembly or State Senate. This suggests things may not be as rosy from Democrats in the County as the Average Democratic Performance makes it seem.
Here is a list of safe districts, marginals, along with the swing and average ADP for Voting Tabulation Districts in each Legislative District.
The 2010 Average Democratic Performance (ADP) is based on US Senate, US Congress, Governor’s Race, State Senate, State Assembly, State Comptroller and State Attorney General Races, broken down by voting tabulation district, then all Democrats added together and divided by the total number of Democratic and Republican votes. Swing is a caculation of Maximum Statewide Democratic Candidate Preformance, subtracted by Minimum Statewide Republican Candidate Preformance.
Election Districts have changed in Albany County since the redistricting by the County Legislature. The data used to compute Average Democratic Preformance is based on Census Standard Voting Tabulation Districts, which have in many cases changed with redistricting. The largest geographic portion of the Census Standard Voting District was counted in the legislative district it exists in.
I computed safe seats as those with a 2010 ADP – 2010 Swing greater then 50%. Marginal districts, are those where Democrats recieved a less then 55% ADP. Normally one would use less then 50% to define marginal, however Andrew Cuomo polled so highly in many districts that he distored the statistics used. The lowest 2010 ADP Standard Voting Tabulation district in all of Albany County was only 43% ADP, which is remarkably high for anywheres in Upstate NY that is not highly urbanized.
It’s obvious that the summer is too short. Despite the fact that Democrats have controlled both houses of Congress, the White House, and the state legislature, they have failed to extend the summer months into the fall.
It’s not like it’s impossible to extend summer. All they would have to do is pass a law stating the summer extended past the fall eqiunox, and maybe change the days that school starts along with changing the date of elections.
To counter the shorter colder days, the Democrats could have created a second daylight savings time, that would kick in for the first three weeks of fall, along with offering tax breaks for the purchase of warmer clothing, such as insulated swim suits.
This could be of great economic benefit. It could create jobs and extend summer fun. But of course, the Democrats despite being in power chose not to extended summer another month or two.
Not afraid to question, criticize the establishment; their independent
Anti-tax sentiment, especially when it comes to fees and hurting the average Middle Class American
Anti-regulatory sentiment, and highlighting some of the abuses of our bureaucrats and their power grab
Pushing for change and reform, a new breed of politician
Tea Party Dislikes.
Too closely tied to Republican Party and Republican Candidates
Too caught up in conservative rhetoric
Takes libertarianism to it’s logical extreme — it takes questions of personal liberty to the extreme of corporate domination
Too anti-union, anti-fair labor practices
Unwilling to see when government can do the right thing
Indeed, if the Tea Party Movement could get away from all it’s conservative and libertarian extremist rhetoric, it would be something I could support.
If the Tea Party Movement could get behind moderate Democrats — those who progressive economically, but also libertarian or even somewhat conservative when it comes to social issues, it would be something I could support.
I don’t want to see our country ruined by a lack of a good government, nor do I want to see our country become a totalitarian state run by liberal activists.
James Howard Kunstler also discussed how he thinks our future will be one with much tighter credit that will make many of the big things we purchased in the past much more inaccessible to most people.
