IRC 12/1 ADP vs 2022 Enacted Districts

I was playing around with RStudio and my ADP calculation code, and looking at competitive races (at least one Democrat and Republican on each line), I calculated the Average Democratic Performance for the enacted districts and those proposed by the Independent Redistricting Commission. The proposed lines would make some districts more competitive, but certainly would make the state somewhat redder.

Assembly District
Democratic Performance (2020)
  Enacted 2022 Lean 2022 IRC 12/1 Proposed Lean IRC Shift
1 52.6% Lean Dem 51.9% Lean Dem βˆ’0.7%
2 40.4% Republican 42.0% Republican 1.6%
3 46.2% Lean Rep 45.9% Lean Rep βˆ’0.3%
4 52.9% Lean Dem 52.3% Lean Dem βˆ’0.5%
5 42.2% Republican 42.3% Republican 0.1%
6 72.6% Democratic 74.9% Democratic 2.3%
7 42.4% Republican 42.8% Republican 0.4%
8 39.8% Republican 40.0% Republican 0.2%
9 39.4% Republican 45.6% Lean Rep 6.1%
10 55.7% Democratic 56.0% Democratic 0.3%
11 60.4% Democratic 58.2% Democratic βˆ’2.2%
12 48.3% Lean Rep 49.7% Lean Rep 1.5%
13 60.2% Democratic 45.3% Lean Rep βˆ’14.9%
14 44.5% Republican 47.4% Lean Rep 2.8%
15 49.5% Lean Rep 55.7% Democratic 6.2%
16 57.6% Democratic 58.1% Democratic 0.5%
17 42.1% Republican 37.9% Republican βˆ’4.2%
18 87.5% Democratic 87.7% Democratic 0.2%
19 44.2% Republican 46.7% Lean Rep 2.6%
20 51.1% Lean Dem 51.5% Lean Dem 0.4%
21 55.8% Democratic 56.9% Democratic 1.1%
22 65.5% Democratic 65.6% Democratic 0.1%
23 56.5% Democratic 57.2% Democratic 0.7%
24 70.3% Democratic 73.9% Democratic 3.6%
25 62.9% Democratic 62.2% Democratic βˆ’0.7%
26 56.8% Democratic 60.6% Democratic 3.8%
27 60.9% Democratic 57.6% Democratic βˆ’3.3%
28 61.9% Democratic 68.6% Democratic 6.6%
29 88.5% Democratic 85.5% Democratic βˆ’3.0%
30 65.7% Democratic 68.2% Democratic 2.5%
31 84.8% Democratic 81.1% Democratic βˆ’3.7%
32 87.8% Democratic 87.8% Democratic βˆ’0.0%
33 82.3% Democratic 87.9% Democratic 5.6%
34 72.6% Democratic 72.8% Democratic 0.3%
35 76.0% Democratic 76.0% Democratic βˆ’0.1%
36 76.4% Democratic 77.5% Democratic 1.0%
37 70.4% Democratic 65.7% Democratic βˆ’4.7%
38 70.5% Democratic 64.4% Democratic βˆ’6.1%
39 70.4% Democratic 76.4% Democratic 6.0%
40 63.8% Democratic 62.8% Democratic βˆ’1.0%
41 70.4% Democratic 51.5% Lean Dem βˆ’18.9%
42 86.5% Democratic 87.0% Democratic 0.5%
43 88.0% Democratic 88.1% Democratic 0.0%
44 76.3% Democratic 77.2% Democratic 0.8%
45 52.7% Lean Dem 61.0% Democratic 8.4%
46 60.1% Democratic 58.3% Democratic βˆ’1.8%
47 61.8% Democratic 57.8% Democratic βˆ’4.0%
48 47.8% Lean Rep 48.1% Lean Rep 0.4%
49 64.1% Democratic 68.2% Democratic 4.1%
50 81.1% Democratic 82.4% Democratic 1.3%
51 80.0% Democratic 77.7% Democratic βˆ’2.3%
52 82.2% Democratic 83.6% Democratic 1.5%
53 88.0% Democratic 84.6% Democratic βˆ’3.4%
54 91.4% Democratic 90.2% Democratic βˆ’1.3%
55 94.4% Democratic 94.5% Democratic 0.1%
56 90.8% Democratic 90.3% Democratic βˆ’0.5%
57 87.4% Democratic 87.3% Democratic βˆ’0.1%
58 95.8% Democratic 95.7% Democratic βˆ’0.1%
59 79.5% Democratic 87.6% Democratic 8.1%
60 94.8% Democratic 94.9% Democratic 0.1%
61 69.8% Democratic 71.6% Democratic 1.8%
62 39.3% Republican 38.5% Republican βˆ’0.7%
63 53.4% Lean Dem 46.6% Lean Rep βˆ’6.8%
64 44.7% Republican 48.8% Lean Rep 4.2%
65 82.9% Democratic 81.4% Democratic βˆ’1.4%
66 82.8% Democratic 82.4% Democratic βˆ’0.5%
67 84.2% Democratic 84.2% Democratic βˆ’0.0%
68 89.0% Democratic 89.3% Democratic 0.4%
69 86.0% Democratic 85.8% Democratic βˆ’0.3%
70 91.3% Democratic 91.2% Democratic βˆ’0.1%
71 88.9% Democratic 89.3% Democratic 0.3%
72 88.4% Democratic 88.1% Democratic βˆ’0.3%
73 74.3% Democratic 75.6% Democratic 1.3%
74 81.6% Democratic 82.6% Democratic 1.0%
75 83.7% Democratic 84.6% Democratic 0.9%
76 79.4% Democratic 79.1% Democratic βˆ’0.3%
77 93.9% Democratic 94.1% Democratic 0.2%
78 90.9% Democratic 90.8% Democratic βˆ’0.1%
79 94.1% Democratic 94.1% Democratic 0.1%
80 84.0% Democratic 85.4% Democratic 1.4%
81 81.8% Democratic 82.2% Democratic 0.3%
82 77.0% Democratic 76.2% Democratic βˆ’0.8%
83 95.5% Democratic 95.5% Democratic 0.0%
84 92.9% Democratic 92.6% Democratic βˆ’0.3%
85 92.9% Democratic 93.0% Democratic 0.0%
86 93.7% Democratic 93.9% Democratic 0.3%
87 91.4% Democratic 91.2% Democratic βˆ’0.1%
88 63.9% Democratic 61.2% Democratic βˆ’2.7%
89 84.0% Democratic 83.5% Democratic βˆ’0.5%
90 62.2% Democratic 63.8% Democratic 1.6%
91 66.2% Democratic 66.1% Democratic βˆ’0.1%
92 65.2% Democratic 66.7% Democratic 1.5%
93 62.9% Democratic 62.8% Democratic βˆ’0.1%
94 42.2% Republican 47.1% Lean Rep 5.0%
95 61.8% Democratic 64.7% Democratic 2.9%
96 60.5% Democratic 65.9% Democratic 5.4%
97 58.8% Democratic 51.2% Lean Dem βˆ’7.6%
98 43.2% Republican 45.8% Lean Rep 2.6%
99 43.5% Republican 45.0% Lean Rep 1.5%
100 52.2% Lean Dem 43.6% Republican βˆ’8.6%
101 41.6% Republican 48.4% Lean Rep 6.8%
102 37.8% Republican 42.6% Republican 4.8%
103 56.6% Democratic 55.3% Democratic βˆ’1.3%
104 56.6% Democratic 55.9% Democratic βˆ’0.8%
105 38.3% Republican 40.0% Republican 1.7%
106 48.9% Lean Rep 44.0% Republican βˆ’4.9%
107 44.6% Republican 42.1% Republican βˆ’2.5%
108 54.1% Lean Dem 51.6% Lean Dem βˆ’2.5%
109 65.8% Democratic 68.4% Democratic 2.6%
110 50.9% Lean Dem 48.4% Lean Rep βˆ’2.5%
111 48.4% Lean Rep 49.1% Lean Rep 0.7%
112 42.1% Republican 43.2% Republican 1.2%
113 47.0% Lean Rep 45.5% Lean Rep βˆ’1.6%
114 36.2% Republican 38.6% Republican 2.4%
115 46.3% Lean Rep 45.0% Lean Rep βˆ’1.2%
116 41.6% Republican 42.2% Republican 0.6%
117 32.4% Republican 35.5% Republican 3.1%
118 31.5% Republican 31.5% Republican 0.0%
119 45.1% Lean Rep 44.6% Republican βˆ’0.5%
120 33.5% Republican 36.0% Republican 2.5%
121 36.7% Republican 38.6% Republican 2.0%
122 40.0% Republican 38.2% Republican βˆ’1.7%
123 49.7% Lean Rep 49.7% Lean Rep 0.0%
124 37.3% Republican 37.2% Republican βˆ’0.1%
125 61.1% Democratic 62.0% Democratic 0.9%
126 42.7% Republican 39.0% Republican βˆ’3.7%
127 47.9% Lean Rep 48.3% Lean Rep 0.4%
128 58.4% Democratic 49.4% Lean Rep βˆ’9.0%
129 59.2% Democratic 71.6% Democratic 12.4%
130 37.5% Republican 33.5% Republican βˆ’3.9%
131 38.8% Republican 41.9% Republican 3.1%
132 33.8% Republican 33.3% Republican βˆ’0.5%
133 35.8% Republican 42.4% Republican 6.6%
134 35.4% Republican 38.8% Republican 3.3%
135 49.0% Lean Rep 46.7% Lean Rep βˆ’2.4%
136 61.4% Democratic 64.0% Democratic 2.6%
137 69.1% Democratic 82.3% Democratic 13.2%
138 56.1% Democratic 43.4% Republican βˆ’12.6%
139 31.1% Republican 30.2% Republican βˆ’0.9%
140 54.6% Lean Dem 55.1% Democratic 0.5%
141 86.2% Democratic 85.1% Democratic βˆ’1.1%
142 53.6% Lean Dem 50.8% Lean Dem βˆ’2.8%
143 54.2% Lean Dem 51.7% Lean Dem βˆ’2.5%
144 36.7% Republican 35.6% Republican βˆ’1.1%
145 45.0% Lean Rep 47.7% Lean Rep 2.7%
146 53.4% Lean Dem 43.6% Republican βˆ’9.8%
147 35.4% Republican 37.7% Republican 2.3%
148 30.1% Republican 30.8% Republican 0.7%
149 57.6% Democratic 72.9% Democratic 15.3%
150 37.8% Republican 37.5% Republican βˆ’0.3%
Andy Arthur, 12/3/22. Created in RStudio using gt/dplyr/sf.

ADP calculated based on all competitive races in 2020 LATFOR data,
by VTD intersected against each set of districts.

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