The New County Legislature Districts.
I recently took the County Legislative District Census Block list and imported it into QGIS using the Census Tiger Lines, then re-exported it into a Google Maps, to create this great interactive map.
- View on Google Maps
- Download Albany County Legislature KML for Google Earth
At One Level Looks Great for Democrats…
No current legislative district in Albany County recieved less then 50% a 2010 Average Democrats Performance. That said, with swing and other factors (e.g. candidate quality, local issues), certain Democrats are expected to lose races that a Generic Democrat could have won in the same location.
…However, In Many of Those Districts, Swing Is Very High.
In the suburban districts, while many may have gone strongly for Governor Cuomo, many chose to vote for Republicans for State Assembly or State Senate. This suggests things may not be as rosy from Democrats in the County as the Average Democratic Performance makes it seem.
Here is a list of safe districts, marginals, along with the swing and average ADP for Voting Tabulation Districts in each Legislative District.
| District | 2010 ADP | 2010 Swing | Safe District | Non-Marginal District |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 50.54% | 13.92% | No. | No. |
| 27 | 51.67% | 19.92% | No. | No. |
| 35 | 53.33% | 23.33% | No. | No. |
| 31 | 53.80% | 20.00% | No. | No. |
| 22 | 54.50% | 22.00% | No. | No. |
| 19 | 55.00% | 18.00% | No. | Yes. |
| 38 | 55.14% | 20.57% | No. | Yes. |
| 21 | 55.47% | 19.00% | No. | Yes. |
| 23 | 56.33% | 20.67% | No. | Yes. |
| 33 | 57.00% | 18.00% | No. | Yes. |
| 12 | 57.43% | 13.29% | No. | Yes. |
| 26 | 57.78% | 20.56% | No. | Yes. |
| 20 | 58.11% | 28.00% | No. | Yes. |
| 29 | 58.50% | 18.50% | No. | Yes. |
| 24 | 59.00% | 22.00% | No. | Yes. |
| 30 | 59.00% | 17.67% | No. | Yes. |
| 37 | 60.20% | 18.60% | No. | Yes. |
| 34 | 63.81% | 21.63% | No. | Yes. |
| 11 | 64.07% | 15.13% | No. | Yes. |
| 18 | 67.33% | 37.17% | No. | Yes. |
| 17 | 70.50% | 40.75% | No. | Yes. |
| 10 | 73.00% | 17.70% | Yes. | Yes. |
| 16 | 73.22% | 35.33% | No. | Yes. |
| 5 | 73.76% | 13.81% | Yes. | Yes. |
| 14 | 76.00% | 26.78% | No. | Yes. |
| 9 | 77.00% | 18.00% | Yes. | Yes. |
| 8 | 77.36% | 14.07% | Yes. | Yes. |
| 13 | 78.15% | 14.31% | Yes. | Yes. |
| 15 | 78.20% | 31.60% | No. | Yes. |
| 3 | 82.81% | 11.00% | Yes. | Yes. |
| 7 | 85.40% | 14.80% | Yes. | Yes. |
| 6 | 86.50% | 12.00% | Yes. | Yes. |
| 2 | 87.00% | 24.00% | Yes. | Yes. |
| 1 | 91.24% | 15.71% | Yes. | Yes. |
| 4 | 92.25% | 11.25% | Yes. | Yes. |
Data Sources.
Methodology.
The 2010 Average Democratic Performance (ADP) is based on US Senate, US Congress, Governor’s Race, State Senate, State Assembly, State Comptroller and State Attorney General Races, broken down by voting tabulation district, then all Democrats added together and divided by the total number of Democratic and Republican votes. Swing is a caculation of Maximum Statewide Democratic Candidate Preformance, subtracted by Minimum Statewide Republican Candidate Preformance.
Election Districts have changed in Albany County since the redistricting by the County Legislature. The data used to compute Average Democratic Preformance is based on Census Standard Voting Tabulation Districts, which have in many cases changed with redistricting. The largest geographic portion of the Census Standard Voting District was counted in the legislative district it exists in.
I computed safe seats as those with a 2010 ADP – 2010 Swing greater then 50%. Marginal districts, are those where Democrats recieved a less then 55% ADP. Normally one would use less then 50% to define marginal, however Andrew Cuomo polled so highly in many districts that he distored the statistics used. The lowest 2010 ADP Standard Voting Tabulation district in all of Albany County was only 43% ADP, which is remarkably high for anywheres in Upstate NY that is not highly urbanized.