districts

Does the US Senate or US House Represent Rural Folks More?

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That’s an interesting thought. The United States Senate has two senators for each state, while the US House is propotionally represented. While an urban state like New York State recieves 29 representives, we only get two senators, a rural state like Vermont recieves only 1 representive and 2 senators.

Another View of Timbered Lands

In theory, that would mean a rural state like Vermont, Wyoming, North Dakota, or even Iowa would have have a disproptionate impact on the legislation through the US Senate. While it’s true that such states have more of a voice in the US Senate, it’s not clear rural residents get more representation in the US Senate.

Why not? For one thing, US Senate districts are larger. Much larger, typically covering whole states. The problem is that by representing complete states, every senator represents both urban and rural areas, and in most states, urban populations outnumber rural portions of states.

South End Housing Projects and 787

If any thing, urban consituencies have more power in the US Senate then the US House. There are representives in US House Districts that are predominately rural, in contrast to even rural states, where population is dominated by urban centers — such as Burlington, Vermont.

How Albany County Legislative Races Are Shaping Up

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The New County Legislature Districts.

I recently took the County Legislative District Census Block list and imported it into QGIS using the Census Tiger Lines, then re-exported it into a Google Maps, to create this great interactive map.


View Larger Map

At One Level Looks Great for Democrats…

No current legislative district in Albany County recieved less then 50% a 2010 Average Democrats Performance. That said, with swing and other factors (e.g. candidate quality, local issues), certain Democrats are expected to lose races that a Generic Democrat could have won in the same location.

Voltage high, excite relay!

Tearing down the black snow maker

…However, In Many of Those Districts, Swing Is Very High.

In the suburban districts, while many may have gone strongly for Governor Cuomo, many chose to vote for Republicans for State Assembly or State Senate. This suggests things may not be as rosy from Democrats in the County as the Average Democratic Performance makes it seem.

Here is a list of safe districts, marginals, along with the swing and average ADP for Voting Tabulation Districts in each Legislative District.

District 2010 ADP 2010 Swing Safe District Non-Marginal District
39 50.54% 13.92% No. No.
27 51.67% 19.92% No. No.
35 53.33% 23.33% No. No.
31 53.80% 20.00% No. No.
22 54.50% 22.00% No. No.
19 55.00% 18.00% No. Yes.
38 55.14% 20.57% No. Yes.
21 55.47% 19.00% No. Yes.
23 56.33% 20.67% No. Yes.
33 57.00% 18.00% No. Yes.
12 57.43% 13.29% No. Yes.
26 57.78% 20.56% No. Yes.
20 58.11% 28.00% No. Yes.
29 58.50% 18.50% No. Yes.
24 59.00% 22.00% No. Yes.
30 59.00% 17.67% No. Yes.
37 60.20% 18.60% No. Yes.
34 63.81% 21.63% No. Yes.
11 64.07% 15.13% No. Yes.
18 67.33% 37.17% No. Yes.
17 70.50% 40.75% No. Yes.
10 73.00% 17.70% Yes. Yes.
16 73.22% 35.33% No. Yes.
5 73.76% 13.81% Yes. Yes.
14 76.00% 26.78% No. Yes.
9 77.00% 18.00% Yes. Yes.
8 77.36% 14.07% Yes. Yes.
13 78.15% 14.31% Yes. Yes.
15 78.20% 31.60% No. Yes.
3 82.81% 11.00% Yes. Yes.
7 85.40% 14.80% Yes. Yes.
6 86.50% 12.00% Yes. Yes.
2 87.00% 24.00% Yes. Yes.
1 91.24% 15.71% Yes. Yes.
4 92.25% 11.25% Yes. Yes.

Data Sources.

Methodology.

The 2010 Average Democratic Performance (ADP) is based on US Senate, US Congress, Governor’s Race, State Senate, State Assembly, State Comptroller and State Attorney General Races, broken down by voting tabulation district, then all Democrats added together and divided by the total number of Democratic and Republican votes. Swing is a caculation of Maximum Statewide Democratic Candidate Preformance, subtracted by Minimum Statewide Republican Candidate Preformance.

Election Districts have changed in Albany County since the redistricting by the County Legislature. The data used to compute Average Democratic Preformance is based on Census Standard Voting Tabulation Districts, which have in many cases changed with redistricting. The largest geographic portion of the Census Standard Voting District was counted in the legislative district it exists in.

I computed safe seats as those with a 2010 ADP – 2010 Swing greater then 50%. Marginal districts, are those where Democrats recieved a less then 55% ADP. Normally one would use less then 50% to define marginal, however Andrew Cuomo polled so highly in many districts that he distored the statistics used. The lowest 2010 ADP Standard Voting Tabulation district in all of Albany County was only 43% ADP, which is remarkably high for anywheres in Upstate NY that is not highly urbanized.

Do State Political Districts Group Together Rural, Suburban, Urban Communities?

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I have always disliked political districts that leave constituencies with elected officials that do not represent their views. In many cases, political views can not be categorized as being partisan, but more representative of where a person lives, and the lifestyle choices of living in a certain area. A rural Democrat or suburban Democrat will have distinctively different views then a urban Democrat, especially if he or she wants to be reelected.

I remember writing to my State Senator years ago, and he expressed a viewpoint totally contrary to my own, and most of my neighbors,primarily because he represented an urban area, plus a fringe of other lands cut up in rural hinder lands. Ironically, the way his district was cut up, he had almost no suburban areas, so the only people with a voice or a vote, where the urban folk, with rural folks in his district having no vote.

The needs and wants of a rural resident are distinctively different then that of a suburban or rural resident. So I wondered how many other people in NY State are stuck either living in a city,but with a politician primarily representing rural areas, in a suburb with politician representing mostly city folk, or a city folk with a rural politician.

I the current 2010 Census town-wide population density data, and combined it with 2002 State Legislative districts…

Campsite 2

Riding the exercise bike, watching Western Champlain and his new Peterbuilt or half of one

Campsite the Next Morning

Some districts are pretty consistent, and others are pretty wild,and gerrymandered to pick up Democratic or Republican seats, with no attempt to try to group similar constituencies, or keep rural,suburban, and urban areas together. Even worst are districts that merge slices Then again, when the game is maximize as many seats for your particular political party, it’s not surprising to see such games played, at the cost of representative government.