essays

New Power Plants Economics Compared

A local environmentalist put together a spreadsheet with the data from the November 2010 Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Electricity Generation Plants. It shows why most new power plants constructed in recent years use either natural gas or wind, as by far they are the most cost-effective fuels. Evens with even a modest carbon regulations, new coal plants will become the exception and not a rule. It seems with the current economics, coal plants already seem like a waste of money and non-economic.

Note: Power Plants come in all different sizes. This analysis normalizes plant costs down to lifespan cost per kW during the plant’s lifespan, typically around 75 years. Therefore, a 500 MW Natural Gas: Advanced Combustion Turbine (CT) Plant based on the table, operating at full capacity would cost = $671.70 x 500,000 = $335 million over it’s lifespan.

Turbine

Less Expensive Types of New Plants.

Fuel – Plant Type Capital Cost
(per kW/lifespan)
Fixed Operating &
Maintenance Cost
(per kW/lifespan)
Total Costs
(per kW/lifespan)
Versus Average
New Plant Types
Natural Gas: Advanced CT $665 $6.70 $671.70 -84.13%
Natural Gas: Conventional CT $974 $6.98 $980.98 -76.82%
Natural Gas: Conventional NGCC $978 $14.39 $992.39 -76.55%
Natural Gas: Advanced NGCC $1,003 $14.62 $1,017.62 -75.96%
Natural Gas: Advanced NGCC with CCS $2,060 $30.25 $2,090.25 -50.62%
Onshore Wind $2,438 $28.07 $2,466.07 -41.74%
Coal: Dual Unit Advanced PC $2,844 $29.67 $2,873.67 -32.11%
Hydro-electric $3,076 $13.44 $3,089.44 -27.01%
Coal: Single Unit Advanced PC $3,167 $35.97 $3,202.97 -24.33%
Coal: Dual Unit IGCC $3,221 $48.90 $3,269.90 -22.75%
Coal: Single Unit IGCC $3,565 $59.23 $3,624.23 -14.38%
Biomass BFB $3,860 $100.50 $3,960.50 -6.43%
Geothermal: Binary $4,141 $84.27 $4,225.27 -0.18%

Rensselaer Besicorp Power Plant

More Expensive Types of New Plants.

Fuel – Plant Type Capital Cost
(per kW/lifespan)
Fixed Operating &
Maintenance Cost
(per kW/lifespan)
Total Costs
(per kW/lifespan)
Versus Average
New Plant Types
Coal: Dual Unit Advanced PC with CCS $4,579 $63.21 $4,642.21 9.68%
Solar: Thermal $4,692 $64.00 $4,756.00 12.36%
Solar: Large Photovoltaic $4,755 $16.70 $4,771.70 12.73%
Coal: Single Unit Advanced PC with CCS $5,099 $76.62 $5,175.62 22.28%
Nuclear: Dual Unit $5,335 $88.75 $5,423.75 28.14%
Coal: Single Unit IGCC with CCS $5,348 $69.30 $5,417.30 27.99%
Geothermal: Dual Flash $5,578 $84.27 $5,662.27 33.77%
Hydro-electric: Pumped Storage $5,595 $13.03 $5,608.03 32.49%
Offshore Wind $5,975 $53.33 $6,028.33 42.42%
Solar: Small Photovoltaic $6,050 $26.04 $6,076.04 43.55%
Natural Gas: Fuel Cells $6,835 $350 $7,185.00 69.75%
Biomass CC $7,894 $338.79 $8,232.79 94.51%
MSW Incineration $8,232 $373.76 $8,605.76 103.32%

Wind on Mountain

Merchants of Doubt

A local Climate Activist suggested I take a look at a new book that came out last year, known as Merchants of Doubt by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway. As somebody who has had a longtime interest in Climate Change and Energy Policy more generally, I was excited to find it at the Albany Public Library. I brought it home on a Friday night, and spent half the night reading it from cover to cover. Merchants of Doubt is the story of “How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming”. It details and follows the lives of some of the most well known scientific contrarians specifically, the late S. Fred Singer, Jim Tozzi, and Steven Milroy. These people spent most of their later career criticizing scientific reports, emphasizing uncertainty and cost of implementing reform.

Delaware Ave

The book is very critical of these contrarians, arguing that they have both mislead the public, the media, and policymakers. The book says due to the abuse of science, many Americans and policy makers make bad decisions. The book also argues that artificial delay and debate over policy response has had a negative effect both on environmental and human health, and increased the costs of resolving problems. Yet, are all these concerns expressed in the book with the scientific contrarians really legitimate? I find that conclusion hard to accept. In a pluralistic democracy, having more voices is a good thing. It is good to have debate and allow “popularizers” on both sides of political debates to take scientific research and make it easily accessible to the public. Science is much too technical for the layman to understand it unless an effort is made to make it accessible.

LaFarge

One can make a legitimate complaint when a “popularizer” distorts scientific reality in a way that is completely contrary to what widely accepted research says. It for example is not right for a “popularizer” to claim that Man-Made Climate Change is not happening at all whatsoever, when the evidence is clear to the contrary. It is however the moral obligation for the popularizer to put that scientific research in context, emphasizing what he or she believes is the proper political context for it to be considered in. Smoking causes cancer. Excessive sulfur dioxide emissions from large power plants causes acid rain. Climate Change and the associated disruptions is caused by excessive carbon dioxide by the mass burning of fossil fuels. These are all well established facts. It’s not a fact that we should use control greenhouse gases or sulfur dioxide emissions – that is a political choice.

Lillies at Jessup River

There are many policy choices that ought to be debated. Just because science can predict a result does not mean we should necessarily adopt any one policy. Some may try to dodge reality because it’s easier then facing the facts, or admitting the true costs of one policy choice. That is a bad thing. However, nobody should act just because the science says one should do one thing. It’s unfortunate that Oreskes and Conway did not make it clear that while facts should not be debated, policy choices should. We should look at the science, weight costs, and decide on action or inaction. Regardless, it’s a interesting read, well worth your couple of hours time.

Eminence State Forest History

From the Eminence State Forest Unit Management Plan

Early settlers were subsistent farmers, relying on the land for the majority of their needs. Evidence of the difficulties associated with clearing the fields can still be seen. The ubiquitous stone walls were built from stones laboriously cleared from fields to make them tillable. Dairy farming was an important activity for the early farmers, with excess milk being shipped to cities in the form of butter. Early crops no longer grown in this area included wheat, tobacco and hops.In 1875, Schoharie County was the fourth largest producer of hops in the State. Hops were said to exhaust soil rapidly and by the late 1800’s, hop production was in rapid decline.

 Butterfly

Forests not cleared for farmland were used for many purposes. Potash and charcoal production were two early farm industries that made use of hardwood forests. Potash was used locally and also shipped to Europe. Charcoal was used in blacksmith shops, tin shops and iron foundries located in every town.

Hemlock was cut for its bark. Tannin extracted from the bark was used in the leather tanning industry. In 1840, there were l4 tanneries in the county. Large tanneries in Gilboa were obtaining bark from the area of the Eminence Management Unit. In addition to its use in the local tanneries, large quantities of tannin were shipped to Europe.

Rossman Fly Road

Other wood based industries included sawmills, shingle mills, cooper shops, wood tool factories and a paper mill. There were mills of various types on Betty Brook, West Kill, Panther Creek, Doney Hollow Creek, Mill Creek, and their tributaries. Portions of these streams are located on the Eminence Management Unit. Early settlers, up to the late l800’s, could not own the land they worked.

This “Patroon” system probably resulted in heavy cutting of the forests because the renters had little interest in the future of their lands. With the widespread cutting taking place, probably every acre of the present day Eminence Management Unit had been cut by the late 1800’s.

The Campsite

Fish and wildlife populations were also decimated during this period. The wild turkey, beaver,black bear, wolf, eagle, and white-tail deer were all extirpated from Schoharie County in the 19th and early 20th century. Stream habitat for native trout and other fish was also damaged by pollution from industry and agriculture. Fish and game laws which established seasons and size limits were non-existent for most of the 19th century.

From the very beginning, these were only marginal farms. By the mid 1800’s, the poor soils of some of these hill top farms had been exhausted, and farms were being abandoned. By l930, large tracts of farmland had been abandoned.In 1931, under the State Reforestation Law, the State began acquisition of some of these abandoned farmlands. Most of these early purchases were for about $4.00 per acre and by l940, land acquisition in the Eminence Management Unit essentially ended.

Rough Lower Section of Burnt Hill Road

In the Spring of l93l, State crews began planting tree seedlings on the open land. A Civilian Conservation Corps camp was established in 1934 at Boucks Falls and the CCC’s joined State Forest crews planting trees. To date, over 6 million trees have been planted on the Eminence Management Unit. Other early projects included timber stand improvement, stream improvement and protection,construction of truck roads, seed collection for the State tree nursery, forest insect and disease control projects and construction of fencing between State and private lands.

Fire Hazard Reduction (FHR) was another project. FHR included construction of water holes, clearing roadsides of slash, building fire breaks around newly established plantations and slash reduction in heavily cut over natural stands.When the State acquired these lands, the previous owners usually reserved cutting rights. They had up to two years to cut any trees down to a six inch stump diameter. As a result of this logging, and other cutting that took place in the decade before the State acquired the land, there was little timber of any value present. Broken and deformed trees were all that was left in the majority of the forested areas.

Marshy Edge of Duck Pond

There were few sales of forest products until the mid 1950’s because of the poor condition of natural forests and the small size of the planted trees. Significant sales did not begin until the 1970’s. To date, about 2 1/2 million board feet of saw timber, 22,000 cords of firewood and 67,000 cords of pulpwood have been sold for a total revenue to the State of over one million dollars. About two-thirds of this revenue came from the plantations which comprise about one-third of the Eminence Management Unit. In the mid 1980’s, harvesting and replanting of mature red pine stands was begun.

The Department of Correction Youth Camp was constructed around 1960 on State lands in the Town of Fulton near Summit. This recently became the Summit Shock Incarceration Camp. Projects accomplished by inmates on State Forests include forest road maintenance, wildlife habitat improvement, stream improvement, recreational trail construction and maintenance, timber stand improvement, tree planting and cone collection for the State tree nursery.Land acquisitions in the 1960’s through the 1980’s improved access to the Eminence Management Unit, enhanced recreational opportunities, provided additional protection for the streams on the unit and consolidated the unit with the acquisition of interior parcels. Six of the State Forests on this unit now contain over 12,000 acres of contiguous public ownership. This large block of public land will become even more valuable in the future, considering recent trends toward subdividing adjacent private lands.

Mallet Pond

Many of the wildlife species that were once extirpated have returned to the area. Their recovery can be attributed to the restoration of natural habitat and the enforcement of hunting and fishing regulations. Now that fish and game are once again abundant, the state lands have become very popular areas for fishing and hunting pursuits.

What God Sees When He Looks Down at New York

Note on the Re-run on May 14th: This continues to be one of my favorites Fodder essays to take a look at. New York State is a beautiful place! — Andy

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Adirondack Mountains.

Binghamton and
Confluence of Chenango and Susquehanna Rivers.

Catskill Mountains.

Cortland.

Finger Lakes.

Hudson Highlands.

New York City.

Orange County’s Black Dirt Country.

Western Catskills and
Country Near Delhi.

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The First Campfire

Flicker

One of the things I look forward to is the first campfire of the year. I have not been camping since December, and with temperatures starting to warm up, it seems like the it won’t be long until I’m camping again.

 Enjoying the Fire

It all starts by gathering up some tinder and some small kindling wood. Crumbling up some paper, stack some kindling. Get out a match, crack open a beer and maybe some honey roasted peanuts. Sit back on the tailgate or a lawn chair, slowly adding fuel to a good fire gets going.

Warm Campfire

Make some dinner up. Maybe clean up a fish I caught, or something else I brought on in. Fry it up in a cast iron frying pan over the fire, or cook something in a dutch oven. Sit back and listen to the evening news on the radio and maybe some music, as I enjoy dinner.

Cookies Box Go Up in Smoke

Toss some more wood on the fire. Clean up the pots and pans, burn up the dinner’s trash. Turn on the lights, sit back and read a book. Look up at the stars and the moon. Watch the fire roar along as the hour gets late. Sit back, and get ready to call it a night.

Reading in the Rain

… I am so looking forward to warmer weather.

Land Use Classifications in Adirondack Forest Preserve

These definations are from the Adirondack Park State Land Master Plan.

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Wild Forest.

A wild forest area is an area where the resources permit a somewhat higher degree of human use than in wilderness, primitive or canoe areas, while retaining an essentially wild character. A wild forest area is further defined as an area that frequently lacks the sense of remoteness of wilderness, primitive or canoe areas and that permits a wide variety of outdoor recreation.

Towards Indian Lake

To the extent that state lands classified as wild forest were given or devised to the state for silvicultural or wildlife management purposes pursuant to statutory provisions specifying that these lands will not form part of the forest preserve (if such provisions are constitutional), the following guidelines are not to be interpreted to prevent silvicultural or wildlife management practices on these lands, provided that other guidelines for wild forest land are respected.

Those areas classified as wild forest are generally less fragile, ecologically, than the wilderness and primitive areas. Because the resources of these areas can withstand more human impact, these areas should accommodate much of the future use of the Adirondack forest preserve. The scenic attributes and the variety of uses to which these areas lend themselves provide a challenge to the recreation planner. Within constitutional constraints, those types of outdoor recreation that afford enjoyment without destroying the wild forest character or natural resource quality should be encouraged.

Many of these areas are under-utilized. For example the crescent of wild forest areas from Lewis County south and east through Old Forge, southern Hamilton and northern Fulton Counties and north and east to the Lake George vicinity can and should afford extensive outdoor recreation readily accessible from the primary east-west transportation and population axis of New York State.

Snowy Mountain

Wilderness.

A wilderness area, in contrast with those areas where man and his own works dominate the landscape, is an area where the earth and its community of life are untrammeled by man–where man himself is a visitor who does not remain.

A wilderness area is further defined to mean an area of state land or water having a primeval character, without significant improvement or permanent human habitation, which is protected and managed so as to preserve, enhance and restore, where necessary, its natural conditions, and which:

(1) generally appears to have been affected primarily by the forces of nature, with the imprint of man’s work substantially unnoticeable;

(2) has outstanding opportunities for solitude or a primitive and unconfined type of recreation;

(3) has at least ten thousand acres of contiguous land and water or is of sufficient size and character as to make practicable its preservation and use in an unimpaired condition; and (4) may also contain ecological, geological or other features of scientific, educational, scenic or historical value.

Crane Pond from Pharaoh Mountain

Significant portions of the state lands within the Park are in a wilderness or near-wilderness condition today. These areas constitute nearly 20% of all designated federal and state wilderness east of the Rocky Mountains and 85% of the designated wilderness in the eleven northeastern states. At the time of the original enactment of this master plan, a majority of these areas contained some structures and improvements or were subjected to uses by the public or by official personnel that were incompatible with wilderness. However, the extent of these non-conforming uses was very modest from the standpoint of the total acreage involved. Since 1972 all but a few of those non-conforming uses have been removed by the Department of Environmental Conservation.

Gothics

Primative Area.

A primitive area is an area of land or water that is either:

1. Essentially wilderness in character but, (a) contains structures, improvements, or uses that are inconsistent with wilderness, as defined, and whose removal, though a long term objective, cannot be provided for by a fixed deadline, and/or, (b) contains, or is contiguous to, private lands that are of a size and influence to prevent wilderness designation; or,

2. Of a size and character not meeting wilderness standards, but where the fragility of the resource or other factors require wilderness management.

Northeast Tip

The definition recognizes two basic types of primitive areas: (i) where the ultimate goal is clearly to upgrade the area to wilderness at some future time, however distant, when the non-conforming uses can be removed and/or acquisition of private tracts is accomplished, and, (ii) where eventual wilderness classification is impossible or extremely unlikely.

An example of the first type would be the existence of a fire tower and associated structures and improvements (observer cabins, telephone lines, etc.) whose precise date of removal cannot be ascertained until the new aerial surveillance program of the Department of Environmental Conservation is fully implemented and communication systems modernized. Another example would be a private or minor public road traversing a tract otherwise suitable for wilderness designation or separating such an area from a designated wilderness. Finally, an extensive private inholding or a series of smaller private inholdings whose eventual acquisition is desirable but cannot now be provided for, might so affect a potential wilderness area as to require primitive designation.

Lows Ledge

The second type includes smaller tracts that are most unlikely to attain wilderness standards, such as a small island in close proximity to a highly developed shoreline, or larger tracts with non-conforming uses, such as a railroad or major public highway, that are essentially permanent, but where in each case the high quality or fragility of the resource requires wilderness management.

The definition recognizes two basic types of primitive areas: (i) where the ultimate goal is clearly to upgrade the area to wilderness at some future time, however distant, when the non-conforming uses can be removed and/or acquisition of private tracts is accomplished, and, (ii) where eventual wilderness classification is impossible or extremely unlikely.

Wakley Fire Tower

An example of the first type would be the existence of a fire tower and associated structures and improvements (observer cabins, telephone lines, etc.) whose precise date of removal cannot be ascertained until the new aerial surveillance program of the Department of Environmental Conservation is fully implemented and communication systems modernized. Another example would be a private or minor public road traversing a tract otherwise suitable for wilderness designation or separating such an area from a designated wilderness. Finally, an extensive private inholding or a series of smaller private inholdings whose eventual acquisition is desirable but cannot now be provided for, might so affect a potential wilderness area as to require primitive designation.

The second type includes smaller tracts that are most unlikely to attain wilderness standards, such as a small island in close proximity to a highly developed shoreline, or larger tracts with non-conforming uses, such as a railroad or major public highway, that are essentially permanent, but where in each case the high quality or fragility of the resource requires wilderness management.

Lows Ledge

Canoe Area.

A canoe area is an area where the watercourses or the number and proximity of lakes and ponds make possible a remote and unconfined type of water-oriented recreation in an essentially wilderness setting.

The terrain associated with parcels meeting the above definition is generally ideally suited to ski touring and snowshoeing in the winter months.

Long Pond Entrance

Cap Adirondack Wilderness at One Million Acres

The State of New York has too much legislatively-designated wilderness, or lands designated as wilderness by the act of a bureaucrat, but not necessarily true wilderness. Legislatively defined wilderness typically has:

  • Remains of former logging and farm roads with graded embankments cutting into hillsides.
  • Former ruins of houses and barns, long burned down, but visible on the landscape.
  • Non-native trees and plants planted by earlier settlers.
  • Lands that lack old-growth timber and the diversity expected in lands not previously timbered or mined.

Many if not most wilderness parcels in New York State have old woods roads, the remains of farm fields and logging operations. While it’s certain that old growth forests and areas with unique or endangered species deserve special protections, wilderness status need not be granted so haphazardly in the park.

All of these traditional land uses is contrary to the Adirondack Park State Land Master Plan which requires Wilderness Areas to…

…generally appear to have been affected primarily by the forces of nature, with the imprint of man’s work substantially unnoticeable.

This would suggest that lands subject to timbering, agriculture, hunting camps, or other types of development in previous years should not be subject to wilderness rules.

Giants Washbowl from Above

Currently there are 1,016,979 acres of wilderness. I propose:

  • Capping forest preserve lands in the Adirondack Park to no more then 1 million acres.
  • Prohibit wilderness designation from any lands within a 1/4 mile of any public highway or intensive use area.
  • Requiring wilderness designation to show that any lands receiving such designation are truly untrameled by man and are authentic wilderness — such as old growth or close to at least hundred year or older forests.
  • Reclassify all lands above the 1 million mark as Wild Forest.

It’s pratically impossible to repeal existing lands with wilderness overlays, and convert them back to wild forest. Wilderness forever locks up land and limits what the public can use the land for. Therefore, there should be no material increase in wilderness ever again in our state.

Capping wilderness would have both strengthen the concept of wilderness in our state and improve the wilderness quality and scenic beauty. Capping wilderness at a certain level would have the following benefits:

  • Limit wilderness area would concentrate the wilderness designation to the most environmentally significant areas — such as old growth forests and the High Peaks.
  • Ensure that wilderness designation not be applied to places where it’s not appropriate.
  • Concentrate enforcement of wilderness designation to this limited 1 million acres within the Adirondack Park.

We already cap snowmobile trails and roads at their 1972 limits in the Adirondack Park’s State Land Master Plan. Even if the state obtains new parcels of lands, there can be no net increase in road milege, even if the lands increase. For the sake of fairness, we should also cap wilderness growth, or at least repeal the existing arbitrary caps on roads and snowmobile trails.

… excessive wilderness protections makes NO sense in public lands that where traditonal timber lands once stood.