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Both Conventional Wisdom and A.I. Can Be Wrong 😵‍💫

I often think of myself as extremely mentally ill for contradicting the conventional wisdom that is not necessarily applicable for my situation. Conventional wisdom, while widespread, is often wrong. Just like the A.I. is often wrong.

When I explain my perspective to the A.I. I am told that my observation for my particular view is “spot-on”. And I mean, can A.I. be wrong, except when I point out to the A.I. that is wrong, and then it reconsiders it’s answer and spits out one I’m more agreeable to.

What is summer blend gasoline?

The primary difference between summer and winter blend gasoline is their Reid Vapor Pressure(RVP), which measures how easily the fuel evaporates at a given temperature. 

Summer-Blend Gasoline

  • Lower RVP: Designed to be less volatile so it does not evaporate as easily in hot weather.
  • Environmental Impact: Slower evaporation reduces the formation of ground-level ozone and smog.
  • Energy Content: Contains approximately 1.7% to 2% more energy per gallon than winter blend.
  • Performance: Results in slightly better gas mileage for drivers.
  • Cost: More expensive to produce due to complex refining processes and the removal of cheap components like butane.
  • Availability: Mandated by the EPA for sale to consumers from June 1 to September 15

Winter-Blend Gasoline

  • Higher RVP: Designed to evaporate more easily to ensure engines start reliably in cold temperatures.
  • Key Ingredient: Contains a higher percentage of butane (up to 10%), which is highly volatile and inexpensive.
  • Performance: Provides slightly lower fuel efficiency because butane has less energy content than other gasoline components.
  • Cost: Cheaper to produce because butane is more affordable than the additives used in summer blends.
  • Availability: Typically enters the market around September 15 as regulations relax for the cooler months. 
Feature Summer BlendWinter Blend
Volatility (RVP)Low (Slower evaporation)High (Easier evaporation)
Butane ContentLow (approx. 2%)High (up to 10%)
Production CostHigher (+$0.05 to $0.15/gal)Lower
Fuel EconomySlightly Better (~1.7% more energy)Slightly Lower
Primary PurposeReduce smog/emissionsEnsure cold engine starts

Retail gas prices typically begin their seasonal climb in late February or early March.  Historically, prices reach their lowest point during the first week of February before rising through the spring. This upward trend often continues until prices peak around Memorial Day or in the early summer months. 

Key Drivers of the Spring Increase

  • Refinery Maintenance: In February, refineries often shut down for “turnarounds” to perform maintenance and retool for summer production.
  • Summer-Blend Transition: Refineries switch to producing summer-blend gasoline in March and April. This blend is more expensive to produce because it uses costlier additives to reduce evaporation in warm weather.
  • Regulatory Deadlines: Terminals must purge winter-blend fuel by May 1, and retailers generally must switch to summer-grade gas by June 1.
  • Rising Demand: Gasoline demand starts to increase in February and continues to grow as warmer weather and longer days encourage more driving, particularly during spring break and the start of the summer travel season.

What do I think about the Iran War? 🇮🇷

Mostly that it’s foolish.

Iran has been a problem country for the whole world for a very long time. It was part of George W. Bush’s Axis of Evil – Iraq, Iran and North Korea. A country run by religious zealots, who believe they are serving the will of God, they have very deep convictions on their beliefs, with many willing to fight to death if necessary to defend what they believe is right.

I don’t see how we win by stirring up a fight in the Middle East. Iran’s government, while obnoxious and a global nuclear threat, mostly was self-contained beyond stirring up trouble in Israel. Leaving them alone mostly kept the oil flowing, kept peace and order in the Middle East. And now that over, we are at war, hitting people in the pocket books in multiple inflationary ways from the gas pump to groceries and everything else that moves by truck and is produced by burning oil.