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The Case for Quiet Climate Change Adaption

Often when people talk about “Climate Change Adaption”, they open discuss mega-projects that prevent theorical stresses that face our cities and urbanized areas. They often discuss large flood walls and other reduncency that would not exist if not for climate modeling.

Yet, there is a more sensible alternative. It’s the minor project and tweaks that can help societies adapt to climate change, that cost far less. Rather then looking at the worst case scenario, planners and engineers can consider likely threats using climate models, and when building new infrastrucuture make tweaks to make them more resilant to weather and flooding that might not have existed even a generation before.

More Hints of Fall

A lot of climate change adaption will happen quietly without much public notice. Simply said, engineers are already that taking notice of recent events, and have to consider future models. Many of the changes, such as bridges designed for greater stream flow, are occuring quietly, without much public consideration.

As get we farther down the path of the changing climate, more infrastructure will fail. Settlement patterns will quietly change, as will land use. But there will be no press release or global stragety. People will adapt to what is right for them, just as infrastructure quietly adapts to a changing climate.

We Need to Balance Climate Change Against Our Needs for Energy Services

Like most Americans, I believe strongly we should do something about Climate Change, to limit it’s most severe impacts. Yet at the same time, I am fully aware of our needs for energy services – the stuff that energy provides for us like lighting, transportation, powering electronics and motors, heating, and cooling. We need a lot of energy too – as I noted when the BP Oil Spill occurred – all the oil that spoiled the ocean could only fuel America for about 45 seconds. Turns out the oil spill severity was much worst then originally predicted, but still it was only one and half minutes worth of petroleum consumption for the United States.

So how do we get there from here? I do not advocate a “crash” diet on petroleum and other fossil fuels. People really like the energy services that fossil fuels provide, and most people aren’t give up their vacations using their petroleum fueled automobiles, or heat and air conditioning in their houses – especially for a “projected” future problem. Electric lighting and computers are essentials of modern life that most people aren’t going to want to give up either. Cities – particularly large cities – have such intense energy needs, that fully substituting with renewables isn’t going to be practical, much less cost effective.

Sure Looks Like Rain

What needs to happen is a big compromise. We need reasonable but strong energy standards that promote and preferable renewables and energy efficiency. Those standards can’t compromise the core things that make up the necessities modern life – including reliable and affordable energy and products. We have to continue to develop fossil energy sources responsibility. At the same time, we need to choose a realistic climate goal that matches our need for energy.

There are those out there that say we can’t afford that much Climate Change destruction. Essentially slaughtering millions of people and destroying billions in property to ensure our society has the energy it needs, really isn’t a pretty choice. But it’s a realistic choice. There is no free lunch on climate change – and protecting all the energy services provides for our society is important. America needs services that energy provides, and it has to be balanced against the painful consequences of consuming that energy.

Today’s debate needs not be whether we will need fossil energy to provide for energy services we all depend on and deeply enjoy. We will need fossil energy for the foreseeable future – and probably more of it in coming years. The question is can we burn it cleanly, and efficiently so it provides the most energy services for the least amount of actual fossil energy consumed. We got to take the oldest and dirtiest power plants and replace them with modern technology. We also got to boost renewable energy to be the preferred source of energy whenever it’s reasonably cost effective.

The Impact of Gas Prices on My Summer Plans

I have been thinking a lot lately about the High Gas Prices and what they mean for summer plans. I typically enjoy traveling by doing roadside camping in the Adirondack Park and other public lands, so one of the biggest costs in my experiences is gasoline.

I knew gas prices might be high when I bought my truck by spring time. They often are highest around election time, only to fall back down to lower levels after election season. This summer is no exception.

Great Blue Heron Wing Span

So I was thinking about what this all means…

1) Planning longer trips and fewer shorter trips. A lot of the gas is consumed driving back and forth to destination. Far less gasoline is consumed when one is at their destination.

Moose River Plains Road

2) Chose to spend longer time in one destination. Usually when I am on vacation I tend to rush to one place to another, consuming a lot of gasoline.driving from one place to another in the Adirondacks or wherever I may be. Why not pick a campsite, and spend more time enjoying the immediate landscape?

 Spruce Along East Canada Creek

3) Avoid idling as much as possible. Hopefully with the deep cycle battery on my pickup, I will be able to keep idling to generate electricity for camping to a minimum.

4) Consider campsites that have as much nearby as possible to do. Possibly choosing campsites near a lake for paddling — like the Wakley Dam Campsites at Cedar River Flow or any of the campsites along North Lake in Adirondacks.

Making Coffee

5) Realize that gas costs really haven’t gone up that much from last year. While gas may cost an additional buck an gallon, that still only means an additional $20-$30 per trip, if the plan is drive between 400-600 miles for vacation. If your already spending $60-90 for your trip on gas, what difference is between that and $80-$120. More money, but if your having fun, so be it.

Cooking Breakfast

6) Not Skipping Things on Trips Because of Gas Costs. In my view it’s pretty stupid to not spend an additional $10 in gas, if have already burned through $40 in gas to get to your destination. If there is something worth seeing, you got to do it.

Still a Pretty Nice Afternoon

7) Finally, just not worry about it. If I am on vacation, just put the gas on the credit card. I will worry about paying it down when I get back home. Things are going to cost what they cost, and I don’t really care much one way or another.

Climate Change, DEC, and Cedar River Road

Like thousands of New Yorkers this past year I have been seriously bummed out on how Cedar River-Limekiln Lake Road from Wakely Dam to Lost Ponds was washed out for the first three months of summer season. It probably was the first time Cedar River-Limekiln Lake Road was closed off for such a long period in summer time — due to springtime flooding and severe erosion and bridge scour — combined with a very tight budget for the Environmental Conservation Department.

Washed Out Road to Wakely Mountain

It seems the list of damaged or still closed roads throughout the Adirondack Park is long this year. Haskell Road is closed. Lester Flow Road and Woodhull Lake Road are rough and badly eroded. Maybe it’s just a bad year, and DEC Division of Lands and Forests is unfunded, and they lack the staff and fuel budget to fix things promptly. Or maybe it’s a more ominous sign — that DEC needs to rethink it’s road construction practices to reflect a changing climate, with heavier rains and more erosion.

Washed Out Section of Cheney Pond Road

As the average temperatures increase in the summer, there is going to be more demand then ever before for recreational access to the Adirondack Park. Yet, the danger is not from increased vehicle traffic, but instead erosion and bridge scour from flooding and increased heavy rains. Simply said, it may come to the point where Adirondack Park back country roads need to be built to a higher standard, with more reinforcement from wash outs.

Wash Out Along Otter Brook Road

That does not mean the end to the dirt or gravel truck trail. It does mean, around streams there is going to have to be more riprap and other course rubble rock to prevent erosion and bridge scour. Courser gravel is going to have to be used on steeper slopes, or maybe a mixture of tar and gravel to keep things in place. While blacktop may seem like the anti-thesis to the back country, it might be necessary in limited stretches to keep things in place, on road surfaces most pounded by the forces of erosion.

Sandy Plains

All of this will escalate the cost of maintenance of back country roads. Yet, the cost of improving back country roads before future cases of erosion, will ultimately save money and improve the public’s experience. Repairing roads to a higher engineering standard makes a lot of sense as the Adirondacks experience increased flooding and erosion from climate change.

Cap and Trade or Performance Standards

After reading “Saving Energy, Growing Jobs” by David Goldstein, I am convienced that Preformance Standards, rather then Cap and Trade is a better way to reduce our greenhouse emissions.

Descending Acra Point

Here is Why…

  1. Cost does not always induce conservation or efficency
  2. People and corporations are willing to pay a lot more for energy without changing behavior or investigating alternatives
  3. Individuals have little choice in buying efficent appliances — most appliances of a certain size consume a certain amount of energy
  4. Information on energy efficency is complex, little understood by the public
  5. Energy taxes will hurt the poor disproptionately

Horse Tiedown

What Cap and Trade is…

  1. A hard national limit on emissions is set.
  2. A tax on emissions is set by a market based on the demand to emit carbon dioxide emissions. The more demand for carbon dioxide emissions, the higher the tax.
  3. Every consumer of energy pays a “tax” related to it’s carbon emissions as a disinsentive to consume energy that produces carbon dioxide emissions.

Open Window

What Preformance and Efficency Standards Are…

  1. Every electric utility, every oil or gas supplier is required to meet a standard on how much carbon dioxide may be released per average unit of enery produced and distributed.
  2. If they are above that standard, they must buy alternative forms of energy as part of their mix to reduce their average carbon intensity. Failure to comply will lead to substantial fines. This is how Corporate Average Fuel Economy or CAFE works.
  3. Utilities along with oil and gas suppliers will be required buy more renewables and put them into their mix, to reduce the carbon intensity of the energy source they provide to consumers.
  4. Every new appliance, every new car or truck is required to meet a specified level of energy efficency. A televison for example, would be prohibited from consuming more then X watts per square inch.

 Brook

Why Preformance Standards are Better…

  1. Preformance standards are not a tax or fee. They do not neccessarly raise the price of energy or of a consumer product.
  2. Consumers save money by ensuring the new appliances they buy are energy efficent. Consumers don’t pay an energy tax as with cap and trade.
  3. Preformance standards, per US Energy Law, do not prohibit features, but instead require high standards of efficency for all models. If you want to buy a gas guzzling SUV or big television, that’s your right, but manufacturers will be required to make sure the average of all cars and television sets are efficent.

Boreal Forest

There Are No Hard Targets for
Greenhouse Gases with Preformance Standards…

  1. Preformance standards are set based on national goals to reduce greenhouse emissions to levels that are demanded by science.
  2. The objection raised by Cap and Trade proponets is that preformance standards do not guarantee a set level of reduction of greenhouse gases by any one year.
  3. If people use a lot of electricity one year, or drive a lot of miles in their cars, then the preformance standards would be canceled out temporarly.
  4. The EPA can compensate by toughening preformance standards for energy generators and new appliances. People (at different times) are constantly replacing cars, television sets, and appliances. This leads to a constant chance at improval in energy efficency and a constant decline in carbon intensity.
  5. It’s better to have a system that has flexibility, so that carbon emissions can rise temporarily in relationship to a hot summer or sudden economic boom.

Why Preformance Standards Will Ultimately Win
in the Climate Change Debate….

  1. Preformance standards are generally allowed under existing law.
  2. The EPA can regulate emissions from smoke stacks, including carbon dioxide at the tonnage level or the per MW/hr level. The EPA would however need Congressional approval for a system that would set carbon dioxide standards public utility-wide level.
  3. Preformance standards for appliances are well established. While tightening of some standards would require Congressional approval, most legislators are far more comfortable with tougher energy efficency standards then an economy wide tax.
  4. Preformance standards are not a tax and do not raise energy prices.
  5. Energy efficency does mean a ban on any appliance or any feature people are used to. It’s the internal redesign of existing appliances, to make them consume less energy for each unit of work done.

What Does Natural Gas Drilling Look Like in NYS?

Here is an overview map of active (“producing”) gas wells in Chautuauqua County. I would have made a map up of the whole state, however Google Maps is currently limited in the number of points it can have plotted, so I did a join against the county lines of Chautuauqua County, by far the largest oil and gas producer in NY State.

Google Maps, zoomed into the Town of Ellery, showing producing gas wells, allows one to see how they are all over. Play around, zoom into individual well pads to see what a working one looks like up close.

Here is a Google Map Zoomed in further onto “Ulrich 2” Natural Gas Well, showing the access road, condensate tank, and well pad for a newer well.

Oil and Gas Wells on State Forests.

Last month, I did an fodder essay with List and Google Map of Gas Wells on NY State Forests.

Gas Well Overview and Printable Maps.

I have done many more printable maps of gas wells in NY State.

Here is an overview of all producing natural gas wells in the state, with each tiny dot on this state-wide map representing a producing gas well. There are over 6,600 dots plotted on this map.

 Breeze

A map from the Finger Lakes Region.

Why is NYSERDA in the Pine Bush?

One of the things that bothers me is that NYSERDA, the New Yor State Energy Research and Development Corporation is located in the Albany Pine Bush in Corporate Circle, in a location primarily serviced by automobiles with minimal if any bus service through the CDTA ShuttleBee. Based on NYSERDA’s location, it is highly unlikely that any employees or visitors ever come to it using mass-transit. Most employees use gas guzzling private automobiles.

NYSERDA in the Pine Bush

Plenty of Real Estate Downtown,
Much Free to Use…

At the same time, there is a large amount of vacant office space downtown, that should be put into use. It’s quite possible that there would be sufficient room to move all of NYSERDA’s operations to a portion of 625 Broadway, home to the Department of Environmental Conservation and Environmental Facilities Corporation. With recent layoffs and the hiring freeze, there probably is ample space in there.

If not, as New York Times recently documented, the 12 floors of the Corning Tower that are currently sitting vacant would be an ideal place for NYSERDA. Quite a bit of scientific research and bureaucratic work gets done in the Corning Tower by the Health Department and Health Services Corporation, and it seems only natural for a public corporation like NYSERDA to consider locating to this location.

Alternatively, NYSERDA could consider renting a private building downtown like the Arcade Building. Many of these buildings have been vacant for a long time, and it’s possible that the rent they could get is far below what they paid for the sprawl rent in the Albany Pine Bush. While they wouldn’t get the parking spaces next to their offices downtown, what they would trade that in for would be less air pollution and lower energy consumption.

NYSERDA's Green Building

NYSERDA Should Be Setting an Example …

Rather then focusing on super-cars that only wealthy state bureaucracies can afford, they should be focusing on promoting compact communities serviced by mass-transit. While NYSERDA can’t force it’s employees to live in Albany, nor should it necessarily do as such, it can promote the benefit of having a workforce that works downtown in a highly energy efficient fashion.

The agency can promote the ease and convenience of working downtown, along with the energy and time savings. By not including significant parking in their relocation, they encourage employees and visitors to come using mass transit. NYSERDA could go farther and educate all existing and new employees about the many Park and Ride sites and bus service in the Capital Region, along with providing discount or free bus passes to all employees and visitors.

We need to think seriously about investing more into mass-transit . Transit is the future for our urban-areas, and all large employers of the future need to be located near transit lines that are regularly serviced, and reduce employee’s commuting distances.

… NYSERDA: It’s About Making Smart Energy Choices.

Gazing at Beautiful Columbia Circle

Open Pine Bush

Home Savings Bank Buildings