January 23, 2023 Morning
Good morning! Snow and 32 degrees in Delmar, NY. โ There is a north breeze at 9 mph. ๐. There are 3 inches of snow on the ground. โ ๏ธThings will start to thaw out at around 9 am. ๐ก๏ธ
Out for the morning walk ๐ถ, the snow is quite wet and sloppy. Sticking to my boots it’s would seem. Sidewalks are plowed which helps. But it’s still pretty wet and slushy. There was a either a telephone or cable line that came down on Elm Avenue this morning, there was already a police officer directing traffic around it, ๐จ but I stayed well away from it, just because you never know how much voltage it could have. If it’s a telephone wire, it could be as much as 90 volts when ringing, and I don’t know how much voltage is used for cable lines, or if they are all fiber optic at this point. I don’t own a TV or have internet at home, so I don’t know what’s up and down. Kind of sucks for people though who plan to work from home.
Today will snow before 2pm, then rain and snow likely. ๐ง High of 35 degrees at 2pm. Four degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical day around February 14th. Northwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. A year ago, we had partly cloudy skies in the morning with some clearing in the afternoon. The high last year was 24 degrees. The record high of 64 was set in 1906. 10.6 inches of snow fell back in 1963.โ
Maybe it was mistake to leave my umbrella home. โ I did plan on bringing it but I was already on my way down to the bus stop ๐ when I realized I didn’t pack it with my lunch. Not a big deal, but I am hoping the snow doesn’t turn to rain and it’s wet by evening. That said, it seems like it will be clearing as the day progresses. Another mild night ahead, which is good, because you know how much I love to pay for heat.
Solar noon ๐ is at 12:08 pm with sun having an altitude of 27.9° from the due south horizon (-42.9° vs. 6/21). A six foot person will cast a 11.3 foot shadow today compared to 2.2 feet on the first day of summer. The golden hour ๐ starts at 4:14 pm with the sun in the west-southwest (237°). ๐ธ The sunset is in the west-southwest (244°) with the sun dropping below the horizon at 4:57 pm after setting for 3 minutes and 14 seconds with dusk around 5:27 pm, which is one minute and 16 seconds later than yesterday. ๐ At dusk you’ll see the Waxing Crescent ๐ Moon in the southwest (230°) at an altitude of 16° from the horizon, 227,713 miles away. ๐ The best time to look at the stars is after 6:02 pm. At sunset, look for a chance of rain, ๐ง and temperatures around 35 degrees. There will be a northwest breeze at 11 mph. Tomorrow will have 9 hours and 44 minutes of daytime, an increase of 2 minutes and 3 seconds over today.
I’ve decided to continue on my journey through more-mindful eating, ๐ฝ which means eating only when I’m hungry and not stuffing my face when I’m already full. Walking is great, but it doesn’t necessary translate to lost weight, nor does it save money. If I try to be more careful on how much I eat, then I can stretch food further, ๐ put more away in the freezer to eat a later date. Might not add up to a lot ๐ฐ but with inflation, you really have to stretch every dollar as far as it can go. Plus less food consumed means less food packaging to burn or take to the transfer station, which is better for the environment. ๐ Kind of a win-win for a better tomorrow. Little things, done over a decade, can really add up. Worse thing is that it seems like the veggies and fruit get eaten up before I’m ready to shop, but I can buy more.
Tonight will be mostly cloudy ๐ฅ, with a low of 27 degrees at 11pm. 12 degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical night around March 18th. Maximum wind chill around 20 at 10pm; Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph. In 2022, we had mostly clear skies in the evening, which became clear by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 6 degrees. The record low of -17 occurred back in 1948.
Maybe my fears of having to walk home in the rain with an umbrella are overblown. ๐ง That’s good, as it should be good for walking tonight, assuming the sidewalks aren’t too icy. I don’t know how late I’ll get home tonight, but I don’t think it will be super late.
Another mild and cloudy weekend ahead. โ๏ธ Saturday, mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Sunday, mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Typical average high for the weekend is 33 degrees. I would like to get out of town this weekend for Friday into the weekend, but I want to give it one more day to decide what my plans are for sure, as if looks cloudy I might hold off. ๐ฒ๐ฒ But it would be fun for my 40th birthday.
Looking ahead, there are 2 weeks until Save the Pine Bush Turns 43 ๐ฆ when the sun will be setting at 5:16 pm with dusk at 5:44 pm. On that day in 2022, we had mostly sunny and temperatures between 36 and 12 degrees. Typically, the high temperature is 34 degrees. We hit a record high of 55 back in 1991.
January 20, 2023 Morning
Good morning on this rather sloppy Friday here in Delmar! ๐ง๏ธ Not a lot of snow or ice locally but a ton of slush. 33 degrees and rain.
Out for the morning walk and it’s pretty wet. โ But it’s not pouring out and my boots ๐ข are waterproof. Not at all icy locally. Sloppy though.
Looking at a high of 40 degrees around 2 pm with the rain tapering off as the day progresses. Some sleet and snow ๐จ could mix in throughout the day but if anything it will just make more slop rather than freeze up with well a salted areas just wet.
I tell you, I am sure glad I’ve been wearing my muzzle. ๐ฉโ๏ธEverybody lately has been getting sick around this place, but so far I’ve been good. I also try to be better at hand washing ๐ and avoiding too many crowded places. Getting sick certainly doesn’t seem fun, especially how healthy I’ve been since the start of the pandemic. I don’t get why people don’t want to get vaccinated or stay healthy.
Solar noon ๐ is at 12:07 pm with sun having an altitude of 27.2° from the due south horizon (-43.6° vs. 6/21). A six foot person will cast a 11.7 foot shadow today compared to 2.2 feet on the first day of summer. The golden hour ๐ starts at 4:10 pm with the sun in the southwest (236°). ๐ธ The sunset is in the west-southwest (243°) with the sun dropping below the horizon at 4:53 pm after setting for 3 minutes and 16 seconds with dusk around 5:23 pm, which is one minute and 14 seconds later than yesterday. ๐ The best time to look at the stars is after 5:59 pm. At sunset, look for skies and temperatures around degrees. There will be a calm wind. Today will have 9 hours and 36 minutes of daytime, an increase of one minute and 52 seconds over yesterday.
I wanted to take the express bus in this morning, ๐ but that was not to be due to me leaving my laptop at home. So I had to turn around and get my laptop and there wasn’t time to catch anything but the local to work. ๐ It got me there regardless. Not an electric bus this week. ๐ Probably for the best, it wouldn’t have been a pleasant walk down to the express bus today. Haven’t used the express bus much this week, because of the weather and session days.
Things will clear out ๐ as the night progresses, and freeze will occur around six pm, which could really ice up the sidewalks and untreated surfaces. Looking at a low of 28 degrees by 5 AM, prior to daybreak then warming up to the mid-30s by Saturday with clearing skies.
Tomorrow I’m thinking of walking out to Five Rivers ๐ธ probably in the afternoon but it depends on the weather. The trails might be sloppy after all of the rain and slush, though I could just walk out there to watch the birds ๐ฆ and get my steps in via Mead’s Lane. ๐ฃ Always a nice winter walk out that way.
Looking ahead, there are 3 weeks until Clean Your Computer Day ๐งน when the sun will be setting at 5:21 pm with dusk at 5:49 pm. On that day in 2022, we had partly cloudy, snow showers and temperatures between 25 and 12 degrees. Typically, the high temperature is 35 degrees. We hit a record high of 53 back in 1955.
January 19, 2023 Night
Good evening! Rain showers and 33 degrees in Delmar, NY. ๐ง๏ธ There is a southeast breeze at 6 mph. ๐. Going to warm up as the night progresses.
The best way to describe the weather this evening is sloppy ๐ง๏ธ with a lot of slush around. Just wet not icy locally and it’s only going to warm up as the night progresses. Wasn’t raining hard, so I went for my evening walk ๐ถ in my waterproof boots. ๐ข
It was a pretty ordinary day, ๐ข fairly busy as expected and sloppy in the evening but I did my walk. I don’t have much to complain about. Tomorrow is Friday. ๐ฒ
Tonight will rain and snow before 4am, then a slight chance of snow between 4am and 5am, then a chance of rain and snow after 5am. ๐ง Low of 33 degrees at 8pm. 18 degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical night around April 5th. Saves on the heat. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. In 2022, we had cloudy skies in the evening, which became snow by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 14 degrees. The record low of -22 occurred back in 1970.
I think tomorrow will be wet and sloppy โ though things could freeze up but I have my doubts. I’ll try to do my morning walk ๐ถ in the morning. I’m not convinced that there will be a lot of snow come the weekend locally. I’m more concerned about Sunday and visiting the folks but maybe it will be okay earlier in the day.
Tonight will have a Waining Crescent ๐ Moon with 4% illuminated. The Snow โ Moon is on Saturday, February 4. The darkest hour is at 12:07 am, followed by dawn at 6:50 am, and sun starting to rise at 7:21 am in the east-southeast (118ยฐ) and last for 3 minutes and 16 seconds. Sunrise is 36 seconds earlier than yesterday. ๐ The golden hour ends at 8:05 am with sun in the southeast (125ยฐ). Tonight will have 14 hours and 24 minutes of darkness, a decrease of one minute and 51 seconds over last night.
Tomorrow will rain and snow showers before 2pm, then a slight chance of rain showers between 2pm and 3pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers after 3pm. ๐ง High of 39 degrees at 2pm. Seven degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical day around February 25th. South wind 5 to 11 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. A year ago, we had light snow in the morning with a few breaks of sun the afternoon. The high last year was 30 degrees. The record high of 53 was set in 2006. 10.4 inches of snow fell back in 2019.โ
In four weeks on February 16 the sun will be setting in the west-southwest (254ยฐ) at 5:29 pm,๐ which is 36 minutes and 15 seconds later then tonight. In 2021 on that day, we had freezing rain and temperatures between 34 and 21 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 36 and 18 degrees. The record high of 61 degrees was set back in 2006.
Looking ahead, Ground Hog Day ๐ป is in two weeks, Average High is 35 โ๏ธ is in 3 weeks, Read Across America Day ๐ is in 6 weeks, Last Day of Winter ๐ is in 2 months, Arbor Day ๐ณ is in 14 weeks, 8:30 PM Dusk ๐ is in 15 weeks, 8 PM Sunset ๐ is in 15 weeks, 9 PM Dusk ๐ is in 19 weeks, June ๐น is in 19 weeks, 8:30 PM Sunset ๐ is in 20 weeks, Average High is 80 ๐ is in 5 months, Ugly Truck Day ๐ is in 26 weeks, Campfire Day ๐ฅ is in 28 weeks, Columbus Day โต is in 38 weeks, Average High is 60 ๐ is in 9 months, Thanksgiving ๐ฆ is in 44 weeks, First Day of Winter โ๏ธ is in 48 weeks and 4:30 PM Sunset ๐ is in 49 weeks.
January 19, 2023 Morning
Good morning! Happy Thursday. Fiery red skies to the east and 32 degrees in Delmar, NY. ๐ Calm wind. The skies will clear Monday around 4 pm.
One more morning to the weekend. โบ Just out doing my morning walk ๐ถ watching the sun rise and getting ready for what is likely to be another busy day at work, especially come the afternoon and the Wednesday memos start hitting my desk. ๐ Fortunately, with some code I’ve at least partially automated the process.
Today will rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet before 3pm, then rain, snow, and freezing rain between 3pm and 5pm, then rain and snow after 5pm. ๐จ High of 34 degrees at 10am. Three degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical day around February 9th. Light and variable wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. A year ago, we had light snow in the morning with a few breaks of sun the afternoon. The high last year was 35 degrees. The record high of 62 was set in 1929. 8.5 inches of snow fell back in 1886.โ
Going to need the lamp on my desk on this morning. ๐ It’s another dark and dreary day. I will try to get in 8,000 steps this morning so I can easily hit 10,000 by lunch time walk. That way if the weather is bad this evening, I will have my steps in. I don’t mind walking in the snow — that can be nice but I think it might be rain or it could be ice. ๐จ I am glad I’m still wearing my muzzle ๐ท as so many people are out sick lately, but I’ve been healthy. Muzzles really do make a difference.
The guy who is very proud of his red socks ๐งฆ is on the express bus again. I haven’t seen him in years, he is an occasional eccentric who from time to time rides the express bus. Always well dressed, looks like a state worker but it’s weird, he always introduces himself and shows you his socks. Seems like a jolly old fellow, reminds me a bit of Warren Buffet, maybe I should spend some more time listening beyond saying Good morning, those are nice socks, and dipping my head into my phone, trying my best to ignore the non-sensible things he says to himself. ๐ฑ
Solar noon ๐ is at 12:07 pm with sun having an altitude of 27° from the due south horizon (-43.8° vs. 6/21). A six foot person will cast a 11.8 foot shadow today compared to 2.2 feet on the first day of summer. The golden hour ๐ starts at 4:08 pm with the sun in the southwest (235°). ๐ธ The sunset is in the west-southwest (243°) with the sun dropping below the horizon at 4:52 pm after setting for 3 minutes and 16 seconds with dusk around 5:22 pm, which is one minute and 13 seconds later than yesterday. ๐ The best time to look at the stars is after 5:57 pm. At sunset, look for rain ๐ง and snow ๐จ and freezing rain ๐ง and temperatures around 32 degrees. There will be a east-southeast breeze at 5 mph. Tomorrow will have 9 hours and 36 minutes of daytime, an increase of one minute and 52 seconds over today.
Tonight will rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 2am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow showers. ๐ง Low of 32 degrees at 6pm. 17 degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical night around April 2nd. East wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. In 2022, we had cloudy skies in the evening, which became snow by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 14 degrees. The record low of -22 occurred back in 1970.
Not a particularly nice weekend on tap. ๐ Saturday, mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind around 7 mph. Sunday, a chance of rain and snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Typical average high for the weekend is 32 degrees.
I think this will be a weekend to stay home. ๐ก I am thinking Saturday I will walk out to Five Rivers for a few hours. Maybe do a morning hike there and then go down to the library. Or maybe I’ll go to the library Friday night and then out to Five Rivers on Saturday afternoon. A lot depends on how much snow we ultimately get, or how icy things are. I still think it’s going to be more rain and wet slop locally but only time will tell.
As previously noted, there are 2 weeks until Ground Hog Day ๐ป when the sun will be setting at 5:11 pm with dusk at 5:39 pm. On that day in 2022, we had snow, mostly cloudy and temperatures between 27 and 20 degrees. Typically, the high temperature is 33 degrees. We hit a record high of 53 back in 1981.
January 16, 2023 Night
Good evening! Mostly clear and 29 degrees in Delmar, NY. There is a northwest breeze at 9 mph. ๐. Things will start to thaw out at tomorrow around 11 am. ๐ก๏ธ
Don’t be sad ๐ that it’s over, remember the good times. I really enjoyed the rural landscape of Madison County and getting away. ๐ There is something so charming about the deep rural. I wish I could live there. Maybe someday but not in New York State. I guess money isn’t a big deal as I think but I’m not sure how I would make ends meet in a place like Madison County. ๐งโ๐พ I’m sure there are many other places like it only without the silliness of our wonderful state. I just love all the browns and earthy colors this time of year, the smells of the earth, silage, manure and wood smoke. ๐ฎ
It really turned out to be a wonderful trip. ๐ป Today finally had bright blue skies and the snow ๐จ and ice on the trees was amazing. Too bad my camera ๐ธ battery was dead and I had to use my cellphone ๐ฑ as they’ve cleared the top of Tassell Hill and there are great views of the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks now. Such an amazing weekend. Cold โ at times but not unexpected for December. Maybe I should have hot tented but I was fine under the covers in my truck.
Tonight will be mostly clear ๐, with a low of 19 degrees at 6am. Four degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical night around February 19th. Maximum wind chill around 17 at 2am; Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. In 2022, we had mostly clear skies in the evening, which became light snow by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 28 degrees. The record low of -23 occurred back in 1971.
Tonight will have a Waining Crescent ๐ Moon with 27% illuminated. The Snow โ Moon is on Wednesday, February 1. The darkest hour is at 12:06 am, followed by dawn at 6:52 am, and sun starting to rise at 7:23 am in the east-southeast (118ยฐ) and last for 3 minutes and 18 seconds. Sunrise is 29 seconds earlier than yesterday. ๐ The golden hour ends at 8:07 am with sun in the southeast (126ยฐ). Tonight will have 14 hours and 30 minutes of darkness, a decrease of one minute and 43 seconds over last night.
Tomorrow will have a slight chance of freezing rain between 11am and noon, then a chance of rain. Increasing clouds ๐ง, with a high of 36 degrees at 2pm. Four degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical day around February 14th. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. A year ago, we had light freezing rain in the morning with a few breaks of sun the afternoon. The high last year was 36 degrees. The record high of 62 was set in 1889. 10.9 inches of snow fell back in 1994.โ
In four weeks on February 13 the sun will be setting in the west-southwest (253ยฐ) at 5:25 pm,๐ which is 35 minutes and 58 seconds later then tonight. In 2021 on that day, we had cold, mostly cloudy and temperatures between 21 and 5 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 35 and 17 degrees. The record high of 58 degrees was set back in 1900.
Looking ahead, tommorow is , National Cheese Lovers Day ๐ง is Next Monday, Save the Pine Bush Turns 43 ๐ฆ is in 3 weeks, Presidents Day ๐ด is in 5 weeks, 8 PM Dusk ๐ is in 12 weeks, Average High is 60 ๐ท is in 3 months, May ๐ is in 15 weeks, 8:30 PM Sunset ๏ธโฑ๏ธ is in 20 weeks, Average High is 80 ๐ is in 22 weeks, Last Sunset After 8:30 PM ๐ is in 6 months, World Mosquito Day ๐ is in 31 weeks, Labor Day ๐จโ๐ญ is in 33 weeks, September 11th ๐บ๐ธ is in 34 weeks, 7 PM Sunset ๐ is in 35 weeks, Average Night Below Freezing ๐ is in 43 weeks, Cyber Monday ๐๏ธ is in 45 weeks, First Sunday of Advent โ๏ธ is in 46 weeks, Tea Party Day ๐ is in 11 months, Bake Cookies Day ๐ช is in 48 weeks and Christmas ๐ is in 49 weeks.
Bayisian Probability ๐ฒ
Bayisian Probability ๐ฒ
The past few weeks I’ve been reading a lot about statistics and probability. I read a book called Statistics for Dummies whose audience was clearly High Schoolers and I struggled through parts of it like I did many parts of Pre Calculus in High School and Elementary Statistics in College. I get the math but the symbols always throw me off. I can do quadratic equations but they aren’t my favorite.
Then I started to read Nate Silvers’ The Signal and the Noise. Much easier read for me, and more fascinating as it looked at real life statistics. It’s easy to be mislead by incomplete data and bias, and either underweighting or overweightingaaaa priors. But using Bayisian Probability can help one overcome some of the current bias by looking back over time. Things usually continue in their current fashion and extremes ultimately revert to the means.
It really is good to keep the past in mind when thinking the future. Past success can be built on. Risk exists but can be minimized and smoothed out over time. If yesterday was good, today is better than chances are good that tomorrow will be even better than today.
I’ve long been interested in risk management and seeing the world not through the fearful panicking nature of the news media, afraid of today and not considering long term structural risk and rewards. I’m a libertarian so I tend to prefer more risk to human life and well being in exchange for more human freedom. Caution can be warranted but it shouldn’t come at the cost of human freedom and dignity.
But my real interest in statistics today is more practical – I have powerful analytical tools like R Studio and access to a remarkable amount of open data that can better explain the world around me, if only I know and apply proper statistical analysis to it. I’m no Quant or statistician and have little interest in returning to formal education but I know there is much I can learn myself.













