April 10, 2020 10 PM Update

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Good evening! Cloudy, still somewhat blustery. and 39 degrees in Delmar, NY. ❄ Breezy, ️20 mph breeze from the west-northwest 🌬 with gusts up to 32 mph 💨💨💨. It was a bit cold on the evening walk 🚶 although it seems like the wind is dying down. Temperatures will drop below freezing at around 1 am. ☃️

Tonight will have a slight chance of rain and snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy 🌧, with a low of 34 degrees at 3am. Two degrees below normal, which is similar to a typical night around April 7th. Breezy, with a west wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. In 2019, we had mostly clear skies in the evening, which became partly cloudy by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 29 degrees. The record low of 20 occurred back in 1874.

Not a real productive day, 📝fixed some issues on the blog and rode the exercise bike 🚲 for a while. Been having some issues with one of the pedals, I might have to figure a creative way to fix it going forward. While the mercury wasn’t super low – it was in the forties most of the day – that wind was intense. Roared most of the day and it made it raw outside.

Finally made that cherry 🍒 pie I’ve been literally telling myself to make for a decade. Came out fairly good. The main thing parishible was the refrigerated crust I bought a few weeks back so the canned cherries were fine from a decade ago. Had cornbread waffles for breakfast and pasta for a late lunch. Skipped dinner.

While we had some sun ☀ for a while I’m glad I stayed home and in town. It would have been pretty darn cold up north and gear would be flapping around with the trees swaying and branches falling down. 🌲🌲 A big branch came down and hit the window and the apartment with a large crack midday but fortunately the window wasn’t damaged. Probably would be hard to maintain a safe fire 🔥 with the wind. I’m sure there will be better weather to come.

Tonight will have a Waining Gibbous 🌖 Moon with 87% illuminated. The moon will rise at 10:51 pm. The Pink 🌸 Moon is on Sunday, April 26. The darkest hour is at 12:57 am, followed by dawn at 5:53 am, and sun starting to rise at 6:22 am in the east-northeast (78°) and last for 2 minutes and 57 seconds. Sunrise is one minute and 40 seconds earlier than yesterday. 🌄 The golden hour ends at 7:00 am with sun in the east (85°). Tonight will have 10 hours and 47 minutes of darkness, a decrease of 2 minutes and 47 seconds over last night.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny 🌞, with a high of 51 degrees at 3pm. Five degrees below normal, which is similar to a typical day around March 31st. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. A year ago, we had cloudy skies in the morning with a few breaks of sun the afternoon. The high last year was 50 degrees. The record high of 87 was set in 2017. 1.7 inches of snow fell back in 1942.❄

I was planning on going down to Schodack Island tomorrow 🚶 🐦 but something came up and plans changed. I might instead stop by the library in the morning and get the blog update uploaded.

In four weeks on May 8 the sun will be setting in the west-northwest (295°) at 8:03 pm,🌄 which is 31 minutes and 37 seconds later then tonight. In 2019 on that day, we had mostly sunny and temperatures between 67 and 44 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 67 and 45 degrees. The record high of 91 degrees was set back in 1936.

Looking ahead, May 🕊 is in 3 weeks, Mothers Day 👩‍ is a month away and 8:30 PM Sunset ️⛱️ is in 8 weeks.

🇺🇸🦅Only 41 days remain until the start of Memorial Day Weekend!🦅🇺🇸

US 7 and Manchester Center Interchange

Stagflation

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Stagflation! 📈

One of my big concerns going forward is how much permanent damage the Coronavirus PAUSE will have to the economy. People say a choice between jobs and saving lives, which to an extent it is but it’s also much bigger than the with the possibility to effect future generations with high inflation and significant debt service costs.

Closing society down and putting everything on a credit card to save lives sounds nice, because nobody wants to lose their best friends, their mom and dad, their grand parents. But credit cards aren’t free, even if the teaser rate – forced by the federal reserve handing out cash to banks – we’re all going to have to pay for it eventually with higher prices through inflation.

Inflation on its own isn’t problematic but wage growth is relatively low these days and any inflation is likely to out strip growth in wages. In other words, it will impoverish the poor. Wealthier people with stocks and bonds – will do okay, as stocks and bonds are likely to beat inflation. Slowing inflation will require higher federal reserve rates which will reduce economic growth by making loans and houses more expensive and more difficult for governments to borrow. These effects could last years or even decades, long after the virus has burned through the population.

As tragic as the loss of life may be, I think we need to consider getting the economy up and going again so people can get back to work and the government can get revenue without printing money and further depreciating the currency – a policy that will only make the richer more rich and the poor more impoverished.

I like the idea of allowing everybody to absentee vote. ☑

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I like the idea of allowing everybody to absentee vote. ☑

It’s so much more convenient to have a ballot mailed to your home than have to get to your polling place. Voting at home means you can spend as much time as you want to fill out your ballot and even Google a candidates name when you vote.

Its also a lot more secure. All absentee ballots come in a double envelope with your name on the outside – and the folded ballot privately folded inside. If there is an allegation of fraud by a voter or his or her ballot, the ballot can be laid aside prior to counting and the voter brought in front of a judge to question and ensure that the voter did actually vote and the voter is qualified to vote in the district the voted in.

I do think even we go to voting by mail we should have secure physical locations to vote for those uncomfortable with voting at home or those without a stamp. But we could have far fewer polling locations if we went primarily to mail voting.

Republican pressure on Trump to reopen the economy grows

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Republican pressure on Trump to reopen the economy grows

I think it makes a lot of sense to the economy going as soon as possible, just because the longer we wait the more damage will occur to the job market, debt accumulated, businesses failed and the higher the risk of high inflation combined with a shitty economy in the coming years. The risk of stagflation is grave, it could harm the poor enormously while the rich get richer. 

North

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Taken on Wednesday April 15, 2015 at I-787.

Hammock Camping

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I’ve been thinking this summer of doing more hammock camping. The idea would be to pack a small day pack with some food, the hammock, matches, flashlight, and maybe a backup battery pack for smartphone (for music/entertainment). I would hike back along a trail somewhere, find a place to spend the night along the trail, build a fire, cook on a small lightweight frying pan.

I did something similar for Memorial Day Weekend 2023, when I camped up on Cole Hill State Forest. It was a lot of fun, not too much work to set up and take down. Some nice sunsets and evenings in the woods, with a very simple camping set up and good meals cooked over a small open fire. I should consider other state forests and land around where I can do something similar.

I’ve stayed away from doing a lot of backpacking in the past, because i have memories of camping in Boy Scouts, where a night in the woods meant a heavy pack, loaded down with gear, and a tired back after hours of walking int he wilderness. But I don’t think I need to bring big pack frame with me for most trips, I could go much lighter, and camp much more minimally especially during warm summer nights.

Hammock Camping on Cole Hill