Politics

Why nearly everybody wants a indicted felon to be the Republican Nominee for President

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Often I make adage that the reason why bad things happen is because nearly everybody wins in some way when those bad things happen. That’s certainly the case with the ever so profitable mass shootings and probably true with Donald Trump being the Republican Nominee.

Let me explain…

  • Donald Trump if he gets the Republican nomination for President has a very powerful chip to plea bargin away for his federal and arguably state felony charges. Few Americans facing felonies can say they are one election away from the White House and voluntarily give it up for a significant fine and ten years probation and potential house arrest. It is literally the biggest single thing one could literally give up outside of one’s life and liberty for a long period of time.
  • The federal prosecutor wins by being able to stop a dangerous felon from once again being in the White House where he could cause so many problems for the nation.
  • At the same time, the Republican Party could benefit significantly from Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination by the primary system. Should Trump become the Republican nomination then step down, the National Republican Committee would be empowered to name his successor. They could pick a sensible, competitive nominee such as Mike Pence or some other dark horse who depending on the economy and state of world affairs could very competitive against the aging and rather bland incumbent of Joe Biden. Trump is a bad candidate but a plea could get rid of him while keeping the base happy.
  • Don’t underestimate the ability of Donald Trump to excite Republican voters and help boost grass roots efforts, especially through his sense of grievance to the system. While ultimately I see Trump pleaing out the felony charges, I don’t think he’ll stop bashing the big government, rigged system until the day he enters his plea. This excitement will help the GOP turn out voters come election day, without the divisive sib-prime candidate that Trump ultimately is. Indicted felon just writes campaign ads, not that voters needed to be reminded of the obvious.
  • It’s a dream come true for Democrats to be running against a once lost candidate, indicted felon for President. Democrats and the Joe Biden campaign know Trump’s weakness and they know a winning strategy at least in the political environment of 2020. Prior results often do predict future performance although things are changing in the political environment.
  • An indicted felon who says crazy things and loves to sling mud and manure is perfect for the news media and selling lots of advertising for Korean cars and laundry soap. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for television and radio with his short crazy clips and gives the press so much to analyze especially as he faces multiple felony criminal cases that could put him in prison for what would effectively be the rest of his life.

Trump’s Final Pardon

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I think the concept of the self pardon by Donald Trump should he be elected in 2024 is exaggerated. While it’s true that the president may have the power of self pardon, it’s likely to be deeply unpopular and will most likely be the political death of his presidency – as nobody likes it when a politician is primarily self interested and tampers with the administration of justice.

The reason why Donald Trump is still a popular candidate at this point is he was an effective leader at addressing conservative concerns – delivering tax relief, returning regulation of abortion to the states, making limited progress on gun rights and appointing a decidedly conservative Supreme Court. But if the president elects first actions are solely to benefit himself then I find it hard to fathom that he’ll have the popular support to accomplish the rest of his agenda.

A felon for President

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I am pretty sure either Donald Trump will be convicted of a felony unless there is a hung jury with his New York criminal case. Whether or not the case is reversed on appeal, it seems likely that one of the leading presidential candidates will be a convicted felon. This means at least in the State of Florida, he won’t be allowed to vote for himself for President unless of course the legislature decides to change law, just for him.

Not that I’m convinced that this is a bad thing. For too long government has been held in too high of regard, the decisions of millions of government bureaucrats viewed as virtuous by default. There has been a reverence for the American government and those who work for it, even though government workers are just humans with as many flaws and bad decisions that are common not only in private business but in the administration of government.

Government, and our country needs to be knocked down a peg. Government workers, the courts, the police should be viewed with a degree of contempt. They should be looked down as a necessary evil, but something that is not virtuous but as servants of people. A leading presidential candidate who is a felon may forever change how we view our country, start a true discussion of the size and scope of government.

I’m inclined to think Biden won’t be on the ballot in Alabama or Ohio

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That is if the Secretary of State or the legislature in those states doesn’t decide to issue an order or amend election law extending the date for Presidential nominees to be selected and appear on the ballot. In these increasingly partisan times, I have my doubts that the Republican elected officials in these states will lift a finger to help Joe Biden get ballot access when he’s not ordinary legally entitled to have ballot access.

I have my doubts the courts will be much help here for Democrats either. The law is the law, and it’s not like the state laws have changed or it was a secret. Instead, it was the Democratic National Committee’s fault for not moving forward the nominating convention before the required state deadlines. Nobody right to choose their presidential candidate of choice was denied, except by the party itself, who chose to ignore the law. Courts don’t like it when organizations know the law and choose to ignore it, and then beg for mercy.

Ultimately, I’m not sure it matters much. Alabama is solidly red and is almost certain to go for Trump. Ohio has drifted so far to the right in recent years, the same could be said about this former swing-state. Democrats just don’t play well in a manufacturing, blue collar state like Ohio anymore. But I’m sure that the state party will launch a vigorous write-in campaign for Joe Biden, and if the election is close come November, it could be a pretty big clusterfuck, should it come down to Ohio and counting potentially millions of write-ins for Joe Biden. That said, I doubt he’ll win Ohio at this point.

Democrats will inevitably blame Alabama and Ohio election laws and the unmoved Republican majorities in those states for not giving them ballot access for Joe Biden. But ultimately it’s not state’s fault that the Democratic National Committee has been emboldened to bully states around, with them not counting New Hampshire’s primary or holding their convention too late to get ballot access in Alabama and Ohio.

A popular idea in liberal circles lately is that Trump and his allies are rigging the system to allow him and other Republicans to pull off a win in a close election 💡

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I mean, they’re not wrong. The Republicans in red states are being terribly naughty, exploiting conspiracy theories and raw power to make it possible to turn the tables in their favor during extraordinarily close elections.

But to call that anti-democratic, a threat to democracy or down right facist is a step too far in my book. Maybe Republicans will use some sneaky and unfair means to turn the tables in an extraordinarily close election but it’s not the end of the world – there is always another election for whatever office their exploiting power in two to six years, and many other offices will be up for election in the mean time.

The fact is you can sometimes out maneuver an opponent to win a close election. But in that case whoever wins still represents close to a majority of voters. And the candidate who wins on dubious means is unlikely to be that popular, having bathed in stench of dubious means of winning. You’ll have the reins of power for a few years but your opponents party will have all the excitement and likely will deliver majorities to Congress and state houses in the mid terms.

Elections are an approximation of public sentiment. By definition, elections are rigged by all kinds of laws and policies designed to favor incumbents, the status quo and the party in power. But power tends to be destructive in a democracy, often the highest flying stars in politics are those that are the fastest to crash and burn.

I’m not worried about democracy. It will mumble along, even if Trump manages to play the system and get a second term in 2024 with a minority of voters and makes a bigger fool of himself. He’ll have his term, he’ll probably bumble through it like his first term and be gone.

And then there will be another election and life goes on.