Really folks, really!

2024 will be an election year. So will 2026 and 2028. Either Joe Biden or Donald Trump will win in 2024 most likely, and either the Democrats or Republicans will control the US House and Senate. An election will determine that this year, and another election will determine that in 2026 and 2028. Both Biden and Trump are term limited in 2028, and even if they somehow could get away with ignoring the constitution, their advance age will send them packing not long beyond that.

Do I have faith in the politicians to not try to tweak the rules so their favored party wins extraordinarily close election? Of course, not. I’ve been around Albany along enough to not be that stupid. But extraordinarily close elections are as much a coin toss as anything else. Storm clouds, a car with a dead battery, a phone call to one’s niece can often determine close elections. Or a clever intrepration of election law, or how the existing law puts a finger on the scale on who wins the election. Really when the election is that close, it doesn’t matter who ends up winning, because essentially the winning candidate reflects either majority sentiment or close to majority sentiment. The next go-around, things might be different.

While in a pure discussion of fairness, you can say a candidate who has 48% popular support winning over the candidate 52% popular support is anti-Democratic. But regardless of who is chosen, virtually the same the number of people will have backed the winner and loser. It’s a rounding error. If the 52% view can’t win under the enacted rules, then they’ll just have to win over a few more supporters, so they get 54% or maybe 56% so they win the election. And then they can play around with the rules, to tilt the election rules more in their favor.