April 28, 2020 Night

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Good evening! Partly clear and 52 degrees in Delmar, NY. There is a north breeze at 5 mph. ๐Ÿƒ. Nice evening, sat out back for a while. Evening ๐ŸŒƒ walk was full of moonlight and stars.

A few random things going on at work today ๐Ÿ’ผ but relatively quiet for most of the day. I went out to Five Rivers Environmental Education Center for a walk ๐Ÿธ and the internet. I was super annoyed that I couldn’t upload my Coronavirus map the normal way to the blog – an issue I’m going to research and figure out tomorrow.

I continued to work on my comments and analysis for Save the Pine Bush regarding the development of the apartment complex in the Pine Bush. ๐ŸŒฒLots of rendering maps and studying data. I may also do some interviews for additional background.

Pulled another fully engorged tick ๐Ÿœoff my arm this evening ๐Ÿ™‹, after I noticed my arm was stinging. I am guessing that I have Lyme disease again but I’ll wait for a bulls eye rash to appear. I did feel a bit achy today so I’m sure that’s what I got. ๐ŸŽฏI should have checked more carefully after hiking back through the brush on Saturday at Partridge Run. ๐ŸŒฒ I’ll have to figure out the telemedicine thing which sucks as I don’t have internet at home but I can probably take pictures and go to the library to get Wi-Fi if necessary. I guess the first step is to call ๐Ÿ“ž the nurse line if I am sure I have Lyme. Doxycline is $5 and approved telemedicine is free ๐Ÿ†“ during Coronavirus but I just hope that I don’t get super sick from Lyme. ๐Ÿ˜ท

Tonight will be partly cloudy ๐ŸŒค, with a low of 38 degrees at 5am. Four degrees below normal, which is similar to a typical night around April 18th. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. In 2019, we had clear skies in the evening, which became partly cloudy by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 31 degrees. The record low of 27 occurred back in 1947.

Tonight will have a Waxing Crescent ๐ŸŒ’ Moon with 32% illuminated. At 10 PM, the moon was in the west (271ยฐ) at an altitude of 36ยฐ from the horizon, some 236,130 miles away from where you are looking up from the earth. ๐Ÿš€ At the state speed limit of 55 mph, you’ll make it there by October 24th. Buckle up for safety! ๐Ÿ’บYou don’t want to go to the hospital ๐Ÿฅ during a pandemic due to an aborted mission to space. Click it or ticket ๐ŸŽซ from the space cops. ๐Ÿ‘ฎ I bet social distancing is hard in zero gravity. The Flower ๐ŸŒท Moon is on Thursday, May 7. The darkest hour is at 12:54 am, followed by dawn at 5:24 am, and sun starting to rise at 5:54 am in the east-northeast (70ยฐ) and last for 3 minutes and 6 seconds. Sunrise is one minute and 25 seconds earlier than yesterday. ๐ŸŒ„ The golden hour ends at 6:33 am with sun in the east-northeast (76ยฐ). Tonight will have 9 hours and 59 minutes of darkness, a decrease of 2 minutes and 32 seconds over last night.

Tomorrow will have a slight chance of showers after 1pm. Increasing clouds โ›… with a high of 56 degrees at 1pm. Eight degrees below normal, which is similar to a typical day around April 11th. Light southeast wind becoming south 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. A year ago, we had light rain in the morning, remaining cloudy in the afternoon. The high last year was 58 degrees. The record high of 88 was set in 1888. 1 inch of snow fell back in 1885.โ„

Not a real wash out tomorrow ๐Ÿ’ฆbut the heavy rain comes Thursday into Friday – probably multiple inches of good soaking rain. โ˜” Rain is a good thing. While we’ve had a lot of dreary days in April with some showers things are still quite dry as we go into May and a good soaker would be a good thing. I am a bit concerned about how though it will infringe on my weekend plans – right now the rain looks to continue into Friday night into Saturday. Maybe it won’t be a good weekend to get away? A lot depends on this tick bite and if it develops into full blown Lyme. I should have checked more carefully last weekend.

In four weeks on May 26 the sun will be setting in the west-northwest (300ยฐ) at 8:21 pm,๐ŸŒ„ which is 29 minutes and 17 seconds later then tonight. In 2019 on that day, we had partly sunny and temperatures between 86 and 57 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 72 and 50 degrees. The record high of 94 degrees was set back in 2010.

Looking ahead, Cinco de Mayo ๐Ÿค  is in 1 week, Primary Day ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ is in 8 weeks, Election Day 2020 ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ is in 27 weeks and Election Day 2020 ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ is in 27 weeks.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿฆ…Only 24 days remain until the start of Memorial Day Weekend!๐Ÿฆ…๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

Hunter Mountain Fire Tower

Continuing to delve into the Coronavirus statistics. ๐Ÿ‘พ

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Continuing to delve into the Coronavirus statistics. ๐Ÿ‘พ

As you can probably tell from the blog I’m an extraordinary consumer of news ๐Ÿ“ฐ and statistics about Coronavirus. While it is a tragedy for many in the country I’m fascinated by the numbers ๐Ÿ”ข and math that make up the virus growth, predictions and modeling.

Most of the math behind the virus is relatively simple. ๐Ÿ“Š With powerful computers being the norm it’s easy for a layman like myself to look at the numbers and make my own predictions based on the same data policy makers and scientists are using. While mine are more general it does give me insight and a way to pass the time.

Often my numbers are wrong. ใ€ฝNot because my theory is wrong but my simple mathematical models can’t possibly understand the complex scenarios as social distancing starves the virus and the virus starts to run up against heard immunity. ๐Ÿฎ People aren’t perfect spreaders of viruses, thank God. But that’s the problem with models – they’re only accurate if all things remain consistent, which never happens in the real world. Asked me, and simple models show all of the world would have Coronavirus by mid April. Raw math suggested that. ๐ŸŒ

What’s next, how bad is it going to be and what our future ๐Ÿ”ฎ holds is on everybody’s mind these days. Most of the news ๐Ÿ“ฐ lately is just vamping for time as there is as many unknowns as definates in our future. While ultimately at the ordinary citizens level I lack the data of policy makers studying the data myself can be helpful at gleaning my own conclusions. ๐Ÿ’ญ

Where things stand in my off grid dream. ๐Ÿก

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Where things stand in my off grid dream. ๐Ÿก

I’ve not been posting a lot lately about my dream of eventually owning land and living off-grid. ๐Ÿฎ Not because the dream has gotten further away – maybe in deflated asset dollars but they’ll come back. ๐Ÿ’ต But it’s because I have little new to report these days. I’m still saving money each pay period, still investing, still getting a little closer each day. I work hard at work, continuing output quality work and have been doing my best to keep it together in these difficult times. ๐Ÿ’ผ There is only so many hours โณ of off griders Youtube video ๐Ÿ“ผ to watch before it all gets repetitive.

I still live modestly in my run down apartment without internet. ๐Ÿ’ป I have done a bit more driving ๐Ÿš˜ nowadays to the public library ๐Ÿ“š and Five Rivers Environmental Education Center to get internet access for personal use ๐Ÿ“ถand have kept my work laptop strictly for business. ๐Ÿš With no bus fare to pay, I save money there. I do really hate working from home but I do the best I can. ๐Ÿ’บ I am trying to save power as much as I can being home all the time by leaving lights off ๐Ÿ’ก and using my solar panel on my truck to charge the battery on my laptop as much as possible. Heat has been off for more than a month at home โ™จ and I lack air conditioning.

The retirement plan at my current job is not as good as my old one ๐Ÿ‘ด but I do the best I can and I switched my Roth to a regular IRA. Not making much money there for sure these days but I’m getting more index fund for less money and the future ๐Ÿ”ฎ only looks brighter ๐Ÿ”†.

I do look up at the stars โœจ and give thanks that I’m much better off than many. My health is good – well except for not walking ๐Ÿšถ as much as I would if I were taking the bus back and forth from work and I’m still putting food ๐Ÿฒ on my table. I also know the almost certain stagflation of the coming next few years will probably be beneficial as I’ve been saving.

That said, there is a lot of unknowns in the world. ๐ŸŒ I am doing my best to maintain social distancing and hand โœ‹ washing but Coronavirus is so contagious and it’s quite possible I could get it and get very sick. ๐Ÿ‘พ Plus my employer doesn’t have unlimited funds or something else could go terribly wrong. But my plan is to push through, do my best, conserve, save and invest for a better tomorrow. ๐Ÿ‘