theory

Peak Resource Theories

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Notes on the Re-Run for Saturday, May 5th.

— Andy

The problem with “peak” theories is they ignore the law of supply and demand. As one learns in Economics 101, everything has a demand curve, which shows that as price rises, demand for a product declines. People look for alternatives when prices increase.

Clouds on Water

This curve is known as the price-elasticity coefficient, and is calculated by the “percentage change in quanity demanded of product x” divided by “percentage change in price of product x”. Some products are considered fairly elastic and other more inelastic, depending on how subsitutable one product is with another one.

Higher prices change both consumer choice and behavior. People will for and foremost look for alternatives. If no alternatives are avaliable, people will alter their use of a product, such as adopting more efficent techniques of use of a product, and then ultimately reducing consumption by choosing alternative methods of living that use less of a product.

Pickup with Ice

For example, gasoline.

If gasoline prices go up, and people believe that gasoline prices will remain high, they will look at alternatives to gasoline, like E85 ethanol or gasoline made from sythentic petroleum. If that doesn’t work, they will over time purchase more fuel efficent cars, canceling car trips, taking public transit, and moving closer to where they work.

What Spurs Change?

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What causes humans to change their course? Below are listed several possibilities, roughly in the order they most often occur in. It is important to note that none of these items always happen, but when they do it is usually in this order.

  1. Environmental Change
  2. Scientific Discovery
  3. Technological Innovation
  4. Public Awareness of a Problem
  5. Political Change
  6. Corporate/Institutional Change

Usually the first three are largely accidental or beyond the control of humans. Public awareness is often spawned by scientific discovery, and occasionally technological innovation is spawned by public awareness (switching the order of the list around slightly). Public awareness is probably the most interesting, as it has the greatest instigator of change in the public.

The last two are less likely to happen right away, or be the root cause of change. Politics and corporations typically change in reaction to one of the first four, particularly the fourth one, as awareness is necessary to institute any change.

Red, Blue, and Blue Sky

What causes individuals to change their course? This implies the micro-level of investigation and causes specific to each person changing and not humans as a larger group.

  1. Social Pressures
  2. Personal/Moral Pressure
  3. New Laws or Regulation (Governmental)
  4. Corporate/Institutional Regulation Changes

The first two are done by the autonomous individual to maximize his personal comfort or fully engage in social situations. They involve questions of conscience, and nobody is forced to change under these conditions.

The second two are generally required, unless you move or otherwise act outside of the justification of control. Outside includes at home where nobody is watching, physically moving out of the jurisdiction, or quitting the employment or moving away from the social conditions that force one to act in a certain way.