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Andy Arthur

After getting COVID at the end of 2024 and sleeping through much of the holiday season, 🛌 it's good to be up and back at my game again. It's cold and dark this time of year, 🥶 but I figure focus on learning and working, while counting down the days until Punxsy sees or does not see his shadow. 🐻

Good morning! Happy First Sunday of the New Year. ⛪️

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Kind of a cloudy, dark and gray start to the day but not so cold out as the wind died down. Yesterday, with that wind howling around made for some pretty cold hiking in the Albany Pine Bush Preserve, but they’ve done some nice work restoring the Kings Road Barrens and 40 New Karner.

Working on some code this morning but I want to get to store fairly soon before the crowds arrive. 🛒 Seems weird but I need to stock up on groceries for coming the week, which will be upon us before you know it. Back to work on Monday, though I expect it to be only a four day week with the state closed for Jimmy Carter’s funeral on Thursday. Going to be cold this week, though this morning isn’t so bad as there is no wind blowing. But first I got to shower and get dressed. 🚿

Went to laundromat last night, so that’s one thing off my list. 👕 Got lots of nice dressy but not too formal shirts for work, at thrift stores yesterday. Also got this nice big heavy brass lamp for my desk. Going to get another 200 watt bulb to stick in (well 26 watt equivalent bulb) and move my other desk lamp to the back of my office that gets pretty dark. 🛋 I really hate the overhead florescent lighting. I need to figure out if I can bring the big lamp on the bus or if I should just drive in one day. I really don’t like driving in, especially not the evening rush hour traffic. 🚗 🚒 🚗 🚓🚗 🚚 🚗 🚌 🚗

I want to work on the bike, 🔧 at least get the brake fluid topped off so I have good stops even if I don’t get around to replacing the pads today. Almost tempted to go for a ride into work on Monday, as it’s not going to be as cold as later in the week. 🥶 That said, it still will be cold. 🚴‍♂️ But I’m antsy to get out riding again. Maybe today for a while, though I expect the wind to pick up and I want to work down at the library for a while. I’ll work inside the library, but I’ll wear my muzzle 😷 at least while around others at the library, but at this point I believe I’m 14 days out from the COVID exposure (I think I got COVID at the Nutcracker — you know people don’t necessarily stay home when they’re seeing their kid at a live performance and they’ve paid a lot of money to do it). 🎭 I’m just glad I’m over that, but am thinking of wearing the mask a lot more this winter, at least on bus and when I’m around others.

I hope Trump’s tariff ideas work.

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It could be a powerful demonstration that taxes on businesses do not necessarily lead to greater unemployment and higher prices for consumers, or that the relationship between the two is less tightly paired than is commonly assumed.

There is an assumption, that is wrong, that all or potentially most of tarrifs will be paid by consumers. But people and businesses are smart and profit seeking – they will find ways to avoid tarrifs. Some consumers might just buy less or none of products with tarrifs. Some importers might eat some of their profits to remain competitive. Others my onshore manufacturing of their products. Truth is the cost of tarrifs won’t be borne solely by consumers.

We have seen this many times in the past when it comes to regulatory costs put on businesses by the government. Businesses find ways to comply for less than the full cost. Businesses do inevitably pass some of the costs to consumers but it’s rarely a one to one relationship. Prices have gone up to cover pollution control efforts at factories but consumers rarely pay for the full cost of cleaner air.

If the tarrifs prove to be successful – in the sense they promote domestic economic growth and at the same time raise revenues for the government at a discount – it may very well pave the way to a national carbon tax. If only the oil and coal companies pay the tax and only partially pass the cost onto consumers, while encouraging switching to lower carbon energy, it’s a win for the taxpayers and the environment. It’s possible we could get substantial reductions in emissions by taxing carbon but only minimally hurting jobs and consumers.

We don’t know for sure, but tarrifs are an exciting economic experiment that if they work could forever change tax policy and create an economy that is not only greener but also less taxing on ordinary citizens. Sure there will be losers under any tax, but targeted taxes on harmful industries might raise a lot of revenues while families and workers only pay a fraction of the cost.