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Gas prices are set to go vertical – by Nate Silver
As the headline suggests, it’s gas prices. Although the United States is less reliant on foreign oil than it once was, the war in Iran could be a perfect storm for gas and energy prices in the U.S. and elsewhere to spike.
Iranian production of oil is severely disrupted, of course, with the U.S. and Israel attacking the country’s fuel infrastructure. But Iran itself isn’t that large a supplier of oil. Estimates vary from source to source, but it was something like the 6th to 8th largest producer in 2024, extracting 4 to 5 percent of the world’s oil.
However, there are two other problems downstream from cutting off Iranian production. One is that Iran has retaliated by attacking oil production facilities in other Gulf States. The other is that the Strait of Hormuz is essentially shut down to shipping traffic. Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain, combined with Iran, collectively provide about 30 percent of the world’s oil.
Fuck it, I’ll ride to work this morning. 🚲 ❄️
Like everyone I heard the DIRE EMERGENCY SNOWSTORM warning about this afternoon and it may or may not happen, but the thing is I probably have meetings downtown this afternoon so I might as well have my bike and then I can just put on the bus if the weather turns to shit by afternoon. Even if it rains, I’m not going to die by getting a little wet. Not actually a super cold morning out, so should be a nice ride.
This morning the bike trail is freeze of snow and ice, 
and most of the lollygagers weren’t yet out as I started my commute, riding down Cherry Avenue then at the light merging on the bike trail and just cruising along. Listening to The Appalachian Trail: A Biography by Philip D’Anieri as I ride in. Still be a cool, and I probably will get rained on by evening, but if conditions are bad, I’ll put my bike on bus. And chances are good I’ll be downtown 
for meetings, and the bus is nearby there, so if it becomes a dire emergency snow storm, then whatever. 
But this morning is sunny, crisp, and cold and ice free.
Another quiet weekend ahead, 
books to read and run to Wally World for some groceries and supplies. I need to start looking at the next truck I’m interested in so I can start putting bids in next week. That said with work, it’s going to be hard to get away and do another test drive unless I go back to DePaula Ford. Maybe test driving is worthwhile, as with the Godzilla Holstein, while I loved the truck on paper as it checked all the boxes, after driving it, I ultimately wasn’t that thrilled with it. Those light gray seats did nothing for me. 
Still at times, I sometimes regret deciding against it, just like that 5-acre homestead next to my parents which ultimately sold for $120k though it did require like a new septic and other repairs before it was livable. But it wasn’t right for me.
And I keep asking myself, how expensive will gas go up this summer? 
Honestly, I’d rather the dealer make floor payments then me not get interest payments on my savings account and have to pay for insurance and fuel. In the mean time, if I feel like motoring, it’s $20 to join the CDTA Carshare and only $5 an hour to motor those little electricity city cars, and fuel and insurance is included. 
I should do that. Might be good if I want to go outlaying dealerships, though I think I want to do much of deal remotely, less likely to get ripped off so much if I have everything in writing. 
I don’t know, somehow the Middle East Crisis just makes me less interested in ginamous fuel-guzzling pickup trucks. 
Maybe also get over to Five Rivers with the nicer weather and long evening, but it might be windy tomorrow and kind of raw tomorrow. 
Sunday going out to see the folks, then rain on Monday, 
so I guess it’s back to taking the Yokel Local Bus back and forth to work.
Oil City, Penna.
Oil City in Pennsylvania is near the birthplace of oil extraction in Pennsylvania, Titusville. A boom and bust city located between the hills outside of the Allegheny National Forest.
I made a decision…. 🛻
Not to buy the Godzilla Holstein truck. It was a nice truck but I hated the light colored fabric seats and the white paint was so boring. I mean if I’m spending SuperDuty money I should get something half decent not just on paper. Good bones are important, but I don’t want something looking like an econo-box after spending so much.
So I told the dealership 
and thanked them for the test drive and will keep looking. I think I want to be more flexible, especially when it comes to considering the MiniZilla and a quad cab. It’s going to be a boat that drinks fuel regardless, that’s the nature of HD trucks. That said with the Middle East crisis I’m not sure how much of a rush I am in at this point. The bike works fine, the roadside trash cans and buses. If anything it’s nice saving money 
not paying insurance, gas or repairs and as it’s more work to haul groceries and dispose of trash as I buy a lot less crap. Tossed another plastic milk bottle in a recycling bin in the Empire Plaza 
on my way over to the shuttle this morning. 
I kept seeing white SuperDuties including one with the blacked out wheels like I test drove, 
on way home last night from the Guilderland Planning Board and on the way to work, but I really don’t want a white truck, epecially with that light gray fabric that I could see getting quickly stained with mud, blood, and whatever other stuff leaks out of coolers or flakes off equipment. There are other SuperDuty trucks out there, but I want to slow things down because who even knows if in a month we can get fuel, with the Middle East blowing up. 
Truth is though, I think I’ve moved away from the high stress, traveling, spending weekends up in wilderness. 
I feel like I’ve done that before, and to double down on way things were seems awfully dated in my mind. But what’s next? Maybe not sold on ginormous truck.
Rode the bus downtown this morning, 
as I could see the bands of sleet pushing in from the west on the radar, and it’s supposed to be a pretty raw day after the past four days of above normal weather. Tomorrow I’ll ride in as I’ll want my bike if I have meetings downtown in the afternoon. Plus it’s nice to avoid the buses on Friday. I think after yesterday’s continued warmth and the rain which was pounding for a while in the early morning, 
things are mostly free on the bike trail. I should see if I can tighten up the rear wheel on the bike and get it a bit more into true, as after all the pounding on the ice, it’s been a pretty wobbly ride. Plus at some point get a new rear tire on the bike, as it’s so bald at this point. Of course I’ve been saying that for close to a year now. I ride so many miles. To get a bit of exercise before work and avoid the crazies at Capitol, I got off at Jefferson Street and walked down to the Plaza and then over to the shuttle. And got the early shuttle over to the office
More blueberry pancakes this morning, 
though Mom got me clued into a wonderful secret ingredient for pancakes, 
namely shredded lemon. I won’t buy lemon juice right now as I don’t want to have plastic trash to deal with but I know Wally World has inexpensive bags of lemons that I should get some, make lemon pancakes and lemonade with stevia. And more compost. 
That meeting in Guilderland dragged on and on about yet another proposed development in the Pine Bush , I got home after 10 PM and dug out some pinto beans and a bit of frozen fruit, 
and headed to bed. 
Slept good, though I had to close my windows before bed. 🪟
The Tanker War (Again)
(Verse 1)
Come gather ’round the ticker tape and see the latest news
Of tankers in the Gulf of Oman shaking in their shoes
The Strait is getting narrow and the prices getting high
While the black smoke from a burning hull is staining up the sky
And the IEA is warning of a dry and thirsty land
As the oil leaks from the wreckage and it settles in the sand.
(Chorus)
And it’s “Steady as she goes, boys,” but the escorts won’t be seen
The U.S. Navy’s busy hunting drones and the machine
While the diplomats are talking, the sailors pay the price
And the world is held for ransom in a game of loaded dice.
(Verse 2)
From the docks of dusty Dubai to the shores of old Iraq
The container ships are burning with a target on their back
The Houthis in the Red Sea say they’ll shut the southern gate
While Fars News tells the story of a dark and looming fate
And the people in the counting house are watching futures climb
Past a hundred-dollar milestone for the second or third time.
(Verse 3)
The Pentagon is silent on the tankers’ urgent plea
“We cannot guard your cargo on a red and rising sea”
“We’re focused on the missiles and the launchpads in the dunes”
While the sirens in Bahrain are playing military tunes
And the U.N. counts the millions who are fleeing from their home
Displaced within the borders where the hungry spirits roam.
(Verse 4)
So they open up the stockpiles, let the emergency flow
To keep the wheels a-turning and the furnace fires aglow
But an airstrike in the northland brings a rain of rockets down
And the fire of the border war is spreading through the town
Oh, the headlines are a-bleeding with the ink of modern war
And I wonder if we’ve seen this tragic comedy before.
(Chorus)
And it’s “Steady as she goes, boys,” but the escorts won’t be seen
The U.S. Navy’s busy hunting drones and the machine
While the diplomats are talking, the sailors pay the price
And the world is held for ransom in a game of loaded dice.