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Happy Tuesday 🌕

With maybe one of the last minor snow storms of the winter on the way, hopefully, the blood moon was not visible this morning, but the carrot pancakes were good though runny at first as I put too much water in the solution.

So glad with the snow 🌨️ melt I could ride the Rail Trail both ways to work yesterday. It beat some of the stress of dealing with car dealerships yesterday. Truth is that I hate driving 🚘 and Second Avenue was pretty stressful at times to ride with the traffic and parked cars. Bike trail is icy but well packed and not too rough to ride. Hopefully the mild temperatures and rain will thin out the remaining of the ice. 🚲

I did not sleep well last night, 🛏️ as the various dealerships I talked to yesterday where for the most part not pleasant to deal with. Keep listening to the news 📰 and reporting about the Iran war. 🇮🇷 And my SuperDoubts continue about the big truck with the whole Iran situation. I’ve started to look more seriously at Toyota Tacomas with the six foot bed, but they’re not that much cheaper and I’m not convinced the reliability is much better. You do get a lot more technology with the Toyota though, for good or bad, unlike the base HD work trucks. Like adaptive cruise control. And also electric cars, especially used electric cars, 🔋 they are so cheap for what you get. But I don’t want a commuter vehicle, but the price of fuel for SuperDuty gives me a lot of pause. Maybe I should look more at 6.8L Minizilla trucks. 😳 I also don’t love the look of me being in a big truck to my landlord, my friends, especially the more greenie and liberal persuasion. 🌎

And honestly, I kind of like not having a car, riding my bike everywhere. 🚲 Trash pickup isn’t an excuse to get a truck, nor the freedom of having fires in the woods. 🔥 March 16th is coming up, and all social media accounts are warning ⚠️ about coming fire restrictions and risk with spring brown season ahead. And don’t you even think of burning anything plastic, unless of course you are in frugal living group in a rural part of a free state where plenty of people live without trash pickup. 🤜 I keep thinking how much money I would save this summer if I skipped traveling, stayed close to home, and rather then doing a summer vacation just taking days off from work and going to bike rides around town, 🚲 maybe riding out to a State Forest like Cole Hill with just a hammock, some food, matches, and flashlight and doing nights up in the woods. 🏕️ I just worry a lot about gas prices sky rocketing, 🚀 ⛽ and all the costs of unreliable big Ford truck.

I got back both very large state and federal refunds this year, 💰 as I really over-estimated my withholding based on the previous year’s dividends and interest rates, but both of them fell last year. I was sure my tax forms would be rejected for mistakes as the refunds seemed to large, but my withholding needs to be adjusted. I was bit the previous year by not withholding enough, so I bumped things up way too much last year. 🤷‍♂️ I’m just glad my tax returns were approved, as while they were honest and accurate, I thought 💭 by the size of the refund. Plenty for the truck cap or a sizable down-payment on the truck. I know I made the government rich this past year but I didn’t want to get fined.

Truth is though I’m my toughest critic, 💢 and of course the dealerships want as much leverage as possible over me and accuse me of being difficult. But I’m also quite undecided and not very confident despite my months of study. Guess what, I have my position to defend, and if you don’t like it too bad. 🖕 I’m going to the Guilderland Town Board to argue for more land preservation tonight with the Save the Pine Bush, 🦋 much to disapproval of the some of leaders and developers. But you got to fight for what is right these days. 🇮🇷 I thought about going to some of the Iran War protests but it’s difficult to find time in my schedule.

Green Up Date

The Green Up Day is when leaves start popping out from the trees.

Green Up Date

Even More SuperDoubts

Some how I was disappointed when the first place I reached out would only give me a out-the-door price verbally on the phone, and all that wanted to do was get me in the shop. It’s fine, the verbal estimate was exactly what I expected, it’s a reasonable starting point and I do want to look at the truck up close before I do a deep dive into other trucks. I knew that would be their response – almost accusatory that I dare ask for a price in writing. I do want to get in the dealership, just to see the truck, though honestly I don’t care about the test drive as much as I want to look up and close and decide if it’s really worth my $60,000 or maybe more depending how much the dealers scam me on it. I knew the first few dealer interactions would be tough, but it will get easier as I go along.

I have my doubts. I like big trucks, and I find it to be such a step down to go Toyota Tacoma and I don’t know how I would fit all my crap in it. Maybe there is a lot of stuff I don’t need. And I’m watching gas prices climb, the climate warm, and just the shame associated with owning an enormous SuperDuty truck. I have my doubts about the reliability of such trucks, while I previously thought lifter and transmission issues were more rare, since joining several Godzilla groups my mind has changed, as has my mind about fuel economy – even if most people are towing far heavier loads then I ever would. Maybe I should look at an electric car. And getting rid of some of my camping gear, going more lightweight in the woods.

Increasingly though, I just don’t want a vehicle at all. I like riding my bike everywhere, and when it rains taking the bus. I like my world being a little smaller, getting to know my community better and not traveling so much. I feel like too often my life has become one of escape, spending weekends in the wilderness and not enough time locally, exploring what is close to home. I’ve learned how to survive this winter on the bicycle, overcoming some of hurtles, mental and else-wise.

Green New Deal

I often hear from liberals that climate change is an immediately solvable problem, that with modest changes to our live-styles and much higher taxes on the rich, we can address the problem and have a better society for all. It’s a very hopeful message, but also a very unscientific and frankly quite naive message to boot.

If addressing climate change in the serious fashion needed to address the worse impacts on it was an easy, inexpensive to thing to do, it would have been done a long time ago. If we could just immediately switch over to cheaper, more reliable battery electric cars, and meet all our needs by a few solar panels, we’d do it now.

But the truth is switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy is much more technically challenging, and will require changes to our own lifestyles, and maybe a reduction to the human population through an expanded death penalty. It’s going to be amazingly expensive, and difficult on economy. But ignoring the problem is likely to be more expensive.

Most of that technology is getting better, thanks in a big part about government research and incentives that are pushing the market that way. But solutions aren’t cheap, nor easy, or without requiring often significant lifestyle changes. There needs to be an adult conversation, not memes and blaming the other political party for all our woes.

This is why I’ve really had little interest in Green New Deal, because I don’t think it’s serious or workable deal. Maybe it’s a message bill that will eventually get more flush on it’s bones and enacted, but as it is it won’t do much for serious problems we face today.

Blue Mountain Lake

NPR

Someone made $553K on a Polymarket bet on Khamenei’s death : NPR

An account trading under the username "Magamyman" made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday. Bet on Anything, Everywhere, All at Once Up First from NPR Bet on Anything, Everywhere, All at Once

The trades drew scrutiny from members of Congress and critics of prediction markets, who say the platforms invite people with access to classified information to profit on lethal military operations. On Polymarket alone, half-a-billion dollars was traded over when exactly U.S. forces would drop bombs on Iran.