The oil market has become used to quickly recovering from geopolitical threats. Could this time be different?
Brent crude futures have jumped 8% to roughly $78 a barrel after the Iran conflict began over the weekend. There are two scenarios that could cause a more severe and lasting impact on pump prices. One is a prolonged disruption to the flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 million barrels a day of oil—or a fifth of global oil production—transits. Second is serious damage to the region’s oil production or infrastructure, especially the kind that would disrupt spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The worst-case scenario is one where Iran does serious damage to neighboring countries’ oil facilities, especially the export terminals that are difficult to repair and are within striking distance of Iran’s weapons systems, according to Clayton Seigle, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He estimates that this kind of damage could send oil prices higher than $130 a barrel, which was the peak after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Assemblymember Anna Kelles, of Ithaca, introduced legislation last week that would require the state’s major electric utilities to create “virtual power plants” — networks of home batteries, smart thermostats, electric vehicles, and other devices that companies can draw on to keep the lights on at peak times. It aims to rapidly scale up the programs by creating new incentives for customers to participate.
The idea behind the bill is gaining traction among energy experts as states contend with rising electricity demand and soaring energy bills, as New York Focus recently reported. How a More Flexible Grid Could Save New York Billions Jack Carroll and Colin Kinniburgh
Flexible grid programs could help New Yorkers save money and cut pollution, a highly sought-after combination amid a bruising fight over the costs of achieving the state’s climate targets. A mammoth report published last fall by the state energy authority NYSERDA found that virtual power plants will be one of the key tools to achieve a reliable, zero-emissions grid, as the state’s climate law requires — and that they are cheaper and quicker to deploy than some of the other technologies the state envisions, like hydrogen or next-generation nuclear.
Well maybe, no slogging it through the snow to get to work on the mountain bike, taking the bus in today. I don’t know when the rain is going to start or if it’s going to turn to ICE but honestly I don’t care that much as bus will slog through it all.
Cornmeal and onion pancakes this morning, 🥞 really sweet skipped the carrots 🥕 in the mix for now. More things broke in the office last night, 🏢 I reported it to the appropriate people who know how to fix it, and we’ll see what happens when it gets done. Computers are great when they actually work properly 🖥️ which is less frequently then you might think.
It was a complete slog of a ride back home last night, 🚴 the packed snow and ice trail while not rough to ride, was soft and slippery in parts, and at times I had to push it through the snow. Between leaving the office late and the snow and ice on the bike trail, it was close to 6:45 PM by the time I got home. Heated up some onions and shrimp, hopped in bed and was asleep 🛏️ before 8 PM. I think I was just so amped up over the battle over the test drive yesterday that was kind of a nothing burger 🍔, drove the truck, looked at it, noting all it’s defects, and then left within a half hour. Popped the hood for good measure, just because I saw on the internet people who aren’t buying usually want one last look under the hood.
I am undecided. 🤷♂️ On paper it would be an excellent truck based on the features list for my needs, though I watch what is happening in the Middle East and gas prices, ⛽ and noting the 7.3L or 455 cubic inch engine with absolutely no fuel economizing features beyond the plastic valance up front which I am sure won’t survive many a snow bank, and the somewhat problematic variable oil pressure pump, that supposedly has been reprogrammed not to starve the lifters when excessively idling. 🛠️ The truck shows signs of having sit on the lot since last August, the rear hubs have rust on them, the brakes are a bit grabby from rust on the rotators, and I’m sure the dual batteries are not at their factory capacity at this point, and it has 80 miles on it, 16 miles from factory testing – and then I assume the rest for test drives. I also forgot how the base model Fords drive, much stiffer steering and brakes, and a rock hard plastic steering wheel compared to my old Silverado. It reminded me a bit too much like my parents Honda, minus all of the technology. So much plastic, sticky, hard steeling wheel. Definately work truck.
And yeah, a $63,500 OTD which is not what I’m willing to pay for essentially a gasser worktruck, 🚧 that has no safety or convenience features, like braking assistance, blind spot monitoring or adaptive cruise control. Things that might save on insurance for the next 15 years. Tiny little screens, mechanical controls for everything. Heated nothing. Stuff that I think is more an annoyance then useful, but I shouldn’t pay for features the truck lacks. I am going to sit on my decision for a few days, see if the dealer follows up with a reduced OTD and then decide if I should put in my own OTD bid or just move on to another truck. If the truck sells, oh well. Lots others like it on dealer lots. Or maybe I’ll become a greenie and buy an electric car. 🔌 Maybe with the climate crisis, 🌎 and the Middle East blowing up, 🇮🇷 it’s silly to think about at big-assed truck with a big block engine and a diesel-transmission that shifts gears like well a commercial truck automatic transmission from the early 1970s. It is kind of fun. But not $63.5k kind of fun. And I don’t love the fleet white color, even with the nicer wheels and LED headlights that come with the STX package.
