Saving Money

Households Less Optimistic about their Financial Situations – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

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Households Less Optimistic about their Financial Situations – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the August 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations were largely stable, rising slightly at the short- and longer-term horizons, and falling slightly at the medium-term horizon. Income growth perceptions declined in August, and job loss expectations rose sharply to its highest level since April 2021. Perceptions about current credit conditions and expectations about future conditions both deteriorated. Households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future also deteriorated.

Pay My Future First

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Today is pay day. Ever since I got my first job, I always “paid my future first.” In other words, at least part of my paycheck was automatically deposited into one kind of savings account or another, only to be touched when making a long-term purchase after allowing the money to grow for a number of years. This day of age, paying your future first is pretty easy — automatic deposits and automatic investing can withdraw money from the account where your direct deposit goes in, and it’s like the money never existed — except it does and it’s being saved. This not only accumulates over time, it also takes advantage of cost averaging — your buying into the market both in low-cost and high-cost times.

As I’ve gotten older, made a little more money, gotten promotions and the alike, I’ve increased the amount I’ve been doing to “pay my future first”. Normally if I get a raise, a cost of living adjustment, or a bigger tax break, I always put the majority of increased funds towards “paying my future first”. Sure I like having a little more money to spend, but I figure I am mostly content with my life now and no need to blow the money — when I can invest it and have more later on, compounded by interest and growth in the markets.

I’ve also diversified where I “pay my future first” money to. Diversity is a good thing because it ensures if any one investment doesn’t work out, there is another one to fall back on. If one goes down, one other is likely to go up. Some are tax-advantaged, like my ordinary IRA deferred compensation for retirement, while others like my Roth IRA are not tax-advantaged, at least not until I retire and take money out of that account.

Some of my investments are very stable but have very modest returns, like my FDIC-insured savings account, or the FDIC certificate of deposits. Some are mid-term investment accounts — things that are maybe have some substantial short-term risk but are investment vehicles that will grow at the rate of the market growth. The later will help me down the road in 10 or 15 years when I go to buy land and my off-grid cabin. I stay away from anything flashy or anything that I isn’t inherently diversified and is not easy to understand.

This has been a fairly successful strategy for me in the past. I paid for both my truck and the lift kit on my truck with cash, just withdrawing money from savings. By not paying interest, I saved quite a bit of money — especially when you consider the compounding nature of interest and depreciation. Likewise, by commuting to college, living at home, taking off time and saving money by avoiding costs however possible, I was able to avoid that trap known as college debt that is negatively impacting so many young adults these days.

Based on my long-range projections of investment and interest, I am really hopeful to be in a place to buy land and be able to move out of New York by the early 2030s (which sounds like a long ways off, but that’s really only about a decade away). The year may slightly change based on the growth of economy and recessions, but I think I have a plan for success. My goals are modest — an off-grid cabin, less then 1,000 feet with maybe 100 acres of land in wilderness — but I think given time I can make it a reality. Land is a lot more affordable in other states, especially if you don’t want a big fancy house, and are content to live in a small town and make less money going forward. But if I own land debt-free, don’t have monthly utility bills or fees, I can be quite rich without a big salary each month.

NPR

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The Fed raises interest rates again despite the stress in banking : NPR

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the ninth time in a row on Wednesday, opting to continue its campaign against high inflation despite stress in the banking industry following the collapse of two regional banks.

Fed policymakers voted unanimously to raise their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to just under 5%, which will make it more expensive for people seeking car loans or carrying a balance on their credit cards.

Members of the Fed's rate-setting committee said additional rate hikes may be necessary to restore price stability. On average, policymakers anticipate rates climbing by another quarter-percentage point by the end of this year, according to new projections that were also released on Wednesday.

Maybe 2022 wasn’t the worst year ever

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Maybe 2022 wasn’t the worst year ever, if you don’t look too hard at your portfolio …

It’s hard not to be a bit discouraged by the news that the stock market closed itself down with the S&P 500 down 19.4% for the year, nearly 1/5th less in value then it was a year ago. It’s the worse year on the stock market since the crash in 2008, and the experts are warning us that we are heading towards a recession and next year might mean another 20% or 30% decline in the market, but maybe then recovering by the end of 2023 where it started. But they were terribly wrong this year, off by 28% by my own estimates. Predicting the stock market, over a few years is a fools game.

Now, I didn’t panic or sell off any stock. I actually took advantage of the lower prices in the market to buy extra, and boost my portfolio whenever I had extra money above and beyond what I would normally do. While the market was down by a 20%, my net worth only dropped about 10% but it still was depressing to look at. I understand the long-term trends — my net worth has gained about 14% a year even after the recent drop, but it just leaves a sour taste in my mouth, even though I know this year was to be expected and part of the growth and decline cycle, that is normal with any investment strategy.

At the same time, this whole year seemed to be one of caution and maybe fear. It was about trying to cut back, in wake of inflation and rising costs all over the map — while trying to dump money into the stock market. I took fewer trips, spent more time closer to home, walking to Five Rivers and other parks within walking distance from home. I stayed away from the gas pumps and grocery stores. If there was something I wanted or hoped to acquire, I pushed it away. I gave up a lot, while to just watch the needle push in the wrong way.

This was the year it was supposed to be different, with the corner office and the mid-level management position and the good salary. I was supposed to have a lot more money coming in that would make everything different, but nothing really changed. I mean in reality, I have more stock and my retirement accounts were maxed out for the year, but my apartment is still as dumpy as it always been, my truck is getting rustier and continuing to decline mechanically. And I was very busy at work at times, which made it hard to get away, especially as remote work isn’t really a thing much anymore, except for the rare cases when it is.

I saw one of those crazies of popular finance who shout on the commercial radio or television — it may have been Dave Ramsey or Jim Cramer — it doesn’t really matter as I don’t follow their scammy stuff — say that having more money doesn’t really change anything. People who have more money or less money and are always broke, will still be always broke. Those people who are jerks are jerks whether or not they are poor. They just have bigger boats or bigger saving and investment accounts. But it doesn’t really change their lives more than superficially, if even that. Money doesn’t have any actual value until it’s transferred to services or property. It’s an imaginary number of sorts. Stocks and bonds have a value when you sell them, but until then that, they just move up and down and spit out and imagery value, a future value only realized if sold and used to buy something else.

But somehow I thought it would be different.

Making more money, would make it easier to save and live a better life. Somehow a different number would change everything, and not that everything would remain the same, or actually decline, due to inflation and market declines. A better income, would make things better, and move me forward, not just keep me treading in the water, with a sinking feeling by asset declines. I thought I would be getting closer to my future, rather then back sliding, so much of this year felt like every time I put more money in the markets with an eye towards future growth — it just seems like tomorrow is sliding away.

Yet, maybe the net worth isn’t the only measurement of the year I should be taking. I grew in other ways, even while my portfolio declined and my truck got older and rustier and my apartment more dilapidated and dirty. I am not winning the war on dust and grime, I’m too much of a dirty hick bring mud indoors. But I can’t discount my experiences and the amount of learning that I took in during this past year. While everything kind of declined around me, I think in many ways I am sharper with the skills and experiences I took in this past year.

I started the year with a free GIS class which sharpened my skills with QGIS. I further honed my skills in RStudio and went on to take a free class in responsive web design and Javascript. Along with other front-end developments. I’ve been learning a lot about computers and coding, and it makes it possible for me to be more efficient at my job and developing content for the blog. I learned a variety of shell applications, picked up more of different computer languages like FORTRAN and LISP. I started using Visual Studio for Coding. I also did a lot of reading and thinking.

While my trips out of town were curbed due to my truck getting old and mechanically more questionable, along with high gas prices and inflation, I did get out and often took longer trips, to maximize the amount of travel I could do while staying in one campsite and leaving my truck parked. I wish I could have done more, but the year was short, weather was often bad, and work was busy. I took full advantage of the free bus out to Thacher Park and regularly hiked out to Five Rivers, the Normans Kill Gorge and other local preserves. It was nice to be able to get out and explore, without burning so much gas, but I also feel like I didn’t get as far away from home this year as years past.

Maybe my focus on the future came at too much of a cost for the year that came and went. But I know despite the depressing economic news of inflation and stock market declines, the growth I made personally and in the number of shares in my portfolio mean that come time, when things turn around, things will be better then they are today.