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Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House

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Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House

"As I wrote earlier this week, Democrats almost certainly need a systematic polling error to win the Senate. By that I mean: They need for the polls to be off everywhere, or at least in certain key clusters of states, to win the Senate. A polling error in just one or two races (say, Beto O’Rourke wins in Texas) probably wouldn’t be enough: Democrats are defending too much territory and have too many problems elsewhere on the map just to get lucky."

"That conclusion about the Senate ought to be fairly intuitive, I think. Even if you credit Democrats with wins in all the toss-up races, that wouldn’t be enough — it would only get them to 50 seats. What might be more surprising is that the same conclusion holds for Republicans in the House. They need for there to be a systematic polling error too. If the polls are about right overall but Republicans are hoping to getting lucky in the swing districts, it probably won’t happen — the odds are stacked heavily against them."

Donald Trump is behaving like 1930s fascist dictator, explains Yale historian

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Donald Trump is behaving like 1930s fascist dictator, explains Yale historian

"Adolf Hitler was elected as Chancellor of Germany in January 1933, while Stalin was able to consolidate his power and lead the Communist Party following the death of Vladimir Lenin, eliminating anyone who stood in his way. Professor Synder also warned that tyrants use terrorist attack, such as the Reichstag fire of 1933, to “suspend your rights.”

How Donald Trump, Michael Avenatti, and Twitter hack the press

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How Donald Trump, Michael Avenatti, and Twitter hack the press

"I’m a political journalist. I’ve been a political journalist for 15 years. I believe in my profession. But right now, I’m worried we’re failing. I’m worried we’re making American politics worse, not better. That’s not because journalists aren’t doing remarkable, courageous, heroic work. Look at the #MeToo movement, the investigations of Donald Trump’s finances, the remarkable reporting that journalists do every day in the midst of war zones and Ebola outbreaks and authoritarian regimes.'

'It’s because everything around us has changed — our business models, the way people read us, the way we compete with each other, the way we’re manipulated — and we’re not keeping up. Instead, we’re getting played by the outrage merchants and con artists and trolls and polarizers who understand this new world better. President Trump is the most successful media hacker out there, but he’s not the only one. We’re being used to fracture American democracy, and I don’t think we know how to stop it."