I am going to look at the numbers some more but I'm betting that the main person to blame for the state's population decline is President Trump. New York's historic population gains have always been highly dependent on immigrants coming to New York from foreign countries - be it refugees or those seeking a better life or career or a life with family members.
Americans on the whole don't choose to move to New York - its an expensive, old state with aging infrastructure - but it's often the first stop for immigrants. But with the dynamic economy and diverse culture its a good first stop.
Between 2010 and 2018: NY State’s population increased by 164,085, while Idaho increased by 186,551 and Oklahoma by 191,496. Texas added 3.5 million and Florida added 2.5 million, California added 2.3 million.
Currently the American Community Survey put out by the US Census Bureau estimates the number of citizens and non-citizens in each blockgroup (a group of similar demographic blocks). This map shows citizenship rates for New York State, from the 2016 ACS 5-year Averages for each Census Tract in New York State.
These estimates are used for many purposes, the most notable is for compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which requires no dilution of voting power of Citizen Voting Age Participants based on race. The Decennial Census, a full population count has not asked about Citizenship since 1950, preferring to focus on core questions to keep the form as short and easy to fill out as possible. Instead, for VRA purposes, American Community Survey estimates is used to calculating the number of citizens in each political district.
The Trump administration, in an effort to get a supposedly more accurate count of citizens and non-citizens, down to the block level, is adding the question back to the 2020 Decennial Census. Some people, worry that fewer people will fill out a longer census form or that the citizenship questions will lead minorities to not-fill out the forum. Others argue that statistically it is more accurate to estimate a large population, then it is to do a total count -- as estimates can make up for non-participation of certain groups of the population.
Data Source: 2016 ACS 5-year Average, Percentage of Non-Citizens per Census Tract. http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t
Carpooling is more common in some suburban parts of New York, along with some rural parts, and a few urban neighborhoods.
Data Source: 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. DP03, SELECTED ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS. https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_16_5YR_DP03&src=pt
How many people in your neighborhood get Temporary Cash Assistance welfare from the state? This interactive map shows the percentage of people receiving this form of government assistance.
Data Source: SELECTED SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_16_5YR_DP02&src=pt
This map shows the difference between the 2010 and 2015 population estimates for each city, town, or borough in New York State. While most counties upstate overall are losing population, many upstate suburban municipalities are gaining population as people leave the cities. Downstate population continues to grow at a rapid pace, as people continue to move to the metropolitan region.
Data Source: US Census Bureau. 2015 Population Estimates. http://www.census.gov/popest/data/cities/totals/2015/index.html
Medicaid provides health coverage to 6.4 million of New Yorkers, including eligible low-income adults, children, pregnant women, elderly adults and people with disabilities. Regions of state with more local income New Yorkers have a higher Medicaid enrollment, especially New York City and Upstate cities, along with some rural areas. Medicaid is administered by counties, according to state and federal requirements. The program is funded jointly by the state government, county governments, and the federal government.
Data Source: PUBLIC HEALTH INSURANCE STATUS BY SEX BY AGE, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. https://factfinder.census.gov/