John Boyd Thacher State Park

John Boyd Thacher State Park, is situated along the Helderberg Escarpment, one of the richest fossil-bearing formations in the world. Even as it safeguards six miles of limestone cliff-face, rock-strewn slopes, woodland and open fields, the park provides a marvelous panorama of the Hudson-Mohawk Valleys and the Adirondack and Green Mountains. The park has volleyball courts, playgrounds, ball fields and numerous picnic areas with nine reservable shelters. Interpretive programs are offered year-round, including guided tours of the famous Indian Ladder Trail. There are over 25 additional miles of trails for summer hiking and mountain biking, and winter cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, hiking, and snowmobiling.

http://nysparks.com/parks/128/

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Why It Kind of Sucks to Live in Rural Upstate NY 🚜

Andy | December 4, 2022

I think it’s easy to blame partisan politics for woes of rural Upstate New York, or any rural part of a blue state. It must be fault of the Democrats, the conservative Republicans like to say. But I think it’s more complicated then that — it’s that urban governance isn’t always the best for rural areas. The same can be said with many of the red states down south, where cities find themselves controlled by rural-dominated legislatures who set down policies that are simply bad for cities.

Living in an rural part of a blue state, means a life full of work-arounds for inflexible policies that are created and well meaning for urban areas. The same is true with red states. The problem is the way states are drawn — they’re historical accidents rather then communities of interest. And while activities in one part of a state effect others, often power is used to punish for ideological reasons.

IRC 12/1 ADP vs 2022 Enacted Districts

Andy | December 3, 2022

I was playing around with RStudio and my ADP calculation code, and looking at competitive races (at least one Democrat and Republican on each line), I calculated the Average Democratic Performance for the enacted districts and those proposed by the Independent Redistricting Commission. The proposed lines would make some districts more competitive, but certainly would make the state somewhat redder.

	Enacted 2022	Lean 2022	IRC 12/1 Proposed	Lean IRC	Shift
Assembly District Democratic Performance (2020)
1	52.6%	Lean Dem	51.9%	Lean Dem	−0.7%
2	40.4%	Republican	42.0%	Republican	1.6%
3	46.2%	Lean Rep	45.9%	Lean Rep	−0.3%
4	52.9%	Lean Dem	52.3%	Lean Dem	−0.5%
5	42.2%	Republican	42.3%	Republican	0.1%
6	72.6%	Democratic	74.9%	Democratic	2.3%
7	42.4%	Republican	42.8%	Republican	0.4%
8	39.8%	Republican	40.0%	Republican	0.2%
9	39.4%	Republican	45.6%	Lean Rep	6.1%
10	55.7%	Democratic	56.0%	Democratic	0.3%
11	60.4%	Democratic	58.2%	Democratic	−2.2%
12	48.3%	Lean Rep	49.7%	Lean Rep	1.5%
13	60.2%	Democratic	45.3%	Lean Rep	−14.9%
14	44.5%	Republican	47.4%	Lean Rep	2.8%
15	49.5%	Lean Rep	55.7%	Democratic	6.2%
16	57.6%	Democratic	58.1%	Democratic	0.5%
17	42.1%	Republican	37.9%	Republican	−4.2%
18	87.5%	Democratic	87.7%	Democratic	0.2%
19	44.2%	Republican	46.7%	Lean Rep	2.6%
20	51.1%	Lean Dem	51.5%	Lean Dem	0.4%
21	55.8%	Democratic	56.9%	Democratic	1.1%
22	65.5%	Democratic	65.6%	Democratic	0.1%
23	56.5%	Democratic	57.2%	Democratic	0.7%
24	70.3%	Democratic	73.9%	Democratic	3.6%
25	62.9%	Democratic	62.2%	Democratic	−0.7%
26	56.8%	Democratic	60.6%	Democratic	3.8%
27	60.9%	Democratic	57.6%	Democratic	−3.3%
28	61.9%	Democratic	68.6%	Democratic	6.6%
29	88.5%	Democratic	85.5%	Democratic	−3.0%
30	65.7%	Democratic	68.2%	Democratic	2.5%
31	84.8%	Democratic	81.1%	Democratic	−3.7%
32	87.8%	Democratic	87.8%	Democratic	−0.0%
33	82.3%	Democratic	87.9%	Democratic	5.6%
34	72.6%	Democratic	72.8%	Democratic	0.3%
35	76.0%	Democratic	76.0%	Democratic	−0.1%
36	76.4%	Democratic	77.5%	Democratic	1.0%
37	70.4%	Democratic	65.7%	Democratic	−4.7%
38	70.5%	Democratic	64.4%	Democratic	−6.1%
39	70.4%	Democratic	76.4%	Democratic	6.0%
40	63.8%	Democratic	62.8%	Democratic	−1.0%
41	70.4%	Democratic	51.5%	Lean Dem	−18.9%
42	86.5%	Democratic	87.0%	Democratic	0.5%
43	88.0%	Democratic	88.1%	Democratic	0.0%
44	76.3%	Democratic	77.2%	Democratic	0.8%
45	52.7%	Lean Dem	61.0%	Democratic	8.4%
46	60.1%	Democratic	58.3%	Democratic	−1.8%
47	61.8%	Democratic	57.8%	Democratic	−4.0%
48	47.8%	Lean Rep	48.1%	Lean Rep	0.4%
49	64.1%	Democratic	68.2%	Democratic	4.1%
50	81.1%	Democratic	82.4%	Democratic	1.3%
51	80.0%	Democratic	77.7%	Democratic	−2.3%
52	82.2%	Democratic	83.6%	Democratic	1.5%
53	88.0%	Democratic	84.6%	Democratic	−3.4%
54	91.4%	Democratic	90.2%	Democratic	−1.3%
55	94.4%	Democratic	94.5%	Democratic	0.1%
56	90.8%	Democratic	90.3%	Democratic	−0.5%
57	87.4%	Democratic	87.3%	Democratic	−0.1%
58	95.8%	Democratic	95.7%	Democratic	−0.1%
59	79.5%	Democratic	87.6%	Democratic	8.1%
60	94.8%	Democratic	94.9%	Democratic	0.1%
61	69.8%	Democratic	71.6%	Democratic	1.8%
62	39.3%	Republican	38.5%	Republican	−0.7%
63	53.4%	Lean Dem	46.6%	Lean Rep	−6.8%
64	44.7%	Republican	48.8%	Lean Rep	4.2%
65	82.9%	Democratic	81.4%	Democratic	−1.4%
66	82.8%	Democratic	82.4%	Democratic	−0.5%
67	84.2%	Democratic	84.2%	Democratic	−0.0%
68	89.0%	Democratic	89.3%	Democratic	0.4%
69	86.0%	Democratic	85.8%	Democratic	−0.3%
70	91.3%	Democratic	91.2%	Democratic	−0.1%
71	88.9%	Democratic	89.3%	Democratic	0.3%
72	88.4%	Democratic	88.1%	Democratic	−0.3%
73	74.3%	Democratic	75.6%	Democratic	1.3%
74	81.6%	Democratic	82.6%	Democratic	1.0%
75	83.7%	Democratic	84.6%	Democratic	0.9%
76	79.4%	Democratic	79.1%	Democratic	−0.3%
77	93.9%	Democratic	94.1%	Democratic	0.2%
78	90.9%	Democratic	90.8%	Democratic	−0.1%
79	94.1%	Democratic	94.1%	Democratic	0.1%
80	84.0%	Democratic	85.4%	Democratic	1.4%
81	81.8%	Democratic	82.2%	Democratic	0.3%
82	77.0%	Democratic	76.2%	Democratic	−0.8%
83	95.5%	Democratic	95.5%	Democratic	0.0%
84	92.9%	Democratic	92.6%	Democratic	−0.3%
85	92.9%	Democratic	93.0%	Democratic	0.0%
86	93.7%	Democratic	93.9%	Democratic	0.3%
87	91.4%	Democratic	91.2%	Democratic	−0.1%
88	63.9%	Democratic	61.2%	Democratic	−2.7%
89	84.0%	Democratic	83.5%	Democratic	−0.5%
90	62.2%	Democratic	63.8%	Democratic	1.6%
91	66.2%	Democratic	66.1%	Democratic	−0.1%
92	65.2%	Democratic	66.7%	Democratic	1.5%
93	62.9%	Democratic	62.8%	Democratic	−0.1%
94	42.2%	Republican	47.1%	Lean Rep	5.0%
95	61.8%	Democratic	64.7%	Democratic	2.9%
96	60.5%	Democratic	65.9%	Democratic	5.4%
97	58.8%	Democratic	51.2%	Lean Dem	−7.6%
98	43.2%	Republican	45.8%	Lean Rep	2.6%
99	43.5%	Republican	45.0%	Lean Rep	1.5%
100	52.2%	Lean Dem	43.6%	Republican	−8.6%
101	41.6%	Republican	48.4%	Lean Rep	6.8%
102	37.8%	Republican	42.6%	Republican	4.8%
103	56.6%	Democratic	55.3%	Democratic	−1.3%
104	56.6%	Democratic	55.9%	Democratic	−0.8%
105	38.3%	Republican	40.0%	Republican	1.7%
106	48.9%	Lean Rep	44.0%	Republican	−4.9%
107	44.6%	Republican	42.1%	Republican	−2.5%
108	54.1%	Lean Dem	51.6%	Lean Dem	−2.5%
109	65.8%	Democratic	68.4%	Democratic	2.6%
110	50.9%	Lean Dem	48.4%	Lean Rep	−2.5%
111	48.4%	Lean Rep	49.1%	Lean Rep	0.7%
112	42.1%	Republican	43.2%	Republican	1.2%
113	47.0%	Lean Rep	45.5%	Lean Rep	−1.6%
114	36.2%	Republican	38.6%	Republican	2.4%
115	46.3%	Lean Rep	45.0%	Lean Rep	−1.2%
116	41.6%	Republican	42.2%	Republican	0.6%
117	32.4%	Republican	35.5%	Republican	3.1%
118	31.5%	Republican	31.5%	Republican	0.0%
119	45.1%	Lean Rep	44.6%	Republican	−0.5%
120	33.5%	Republican	36.0%	Republican	2.5%
121	36.7%	Republican	38.6%	Republican	2.0%
122	40.0%	Republican	38.2%	Republican	−1.7%
123	49.7%	Lean Rep	49.7%	Lean Rep	0.0%
124	37.3%	Republican	37.2%	Republican	−0.1%
125	61.1%	Democratic	62.0%	Democratic	0.9%
126	42.7%	Republican	39.0%	Republican	−3.7%
127	47.9%	Lean Rep	48.3%	Lean Rep	0.4%
128	58.4%	Democratic	49.4%	Lean Rep	−9.0%
129	59.2%	Democratic	71.6%	Democratic	12.4%
130	37.5%	Republican	33.5%	Republican	−3.9%
131	38.8%	Republican	41.9%	Republican	3.1%
132	33.8%	Republican	33.3%	Republican	−0.5%
133	35.8%	Republican	42.4%	Republican	6.6%
134	35.4%	Republican	38.8%	Republican	3.3%
135	49.0%	Lean Rep	46.7%	Lean Rep	−2.4%
136	61.4%	Democratic	64.0%	Democratic	2.6%
137	69.1%	Democratic	82.3%	Democratic	13.2%
138	56.1%	Democratic	43.4%	Republican	−12.6%
139	31.1%	Republican	30.2%	Republican	−0.9%
140	54.6%	Lean Dem	55.1%	Democratic	0.5%
141	86.2%	Democratic	85.1%	Democratic	−1.1%
142	53.6%	Lean Dem	50.8%	Lean Dem	−2.8%
143	54.2%	Lean Dem	51.7%	Lean Dem	−2.5%
144	36.7%	Republican	35.6%	Republican	−1.1%
145	45.0%	Lean Rep	47.7%	Lean Rep	2.7%
146	53.4%	Lean Dem	43.6%	Republican	−9.8%
147	35.4%	Republican	37.7%	Republican	2.3%
148	30.1%	Republican	30.8%	Republican	0.7%
149	57.6%	Democratic	72.9%	Democratic	15.3%
150	37.8%	Republican	37.5%	Republican	−0.3%
Andy Arthur, 12/3/22. Created in RStudio using gt/dplyr/sf. ADP calculated based on all competitive races in 2020 LATFOR data, by VTD intersected against each set of districts.

Weather Update – December 2, 2022

Andy | December 2, 2022

Sunny to start out the day but clouds pushing in later 🌤

Tomorrow is going to be wet for the Save the Pine Bush Hike, hopefully a few people will show up or otherwise I’ll just go for a hike in the rain. Some fresh air is always nice.

Today. Feels like … December 3rd.	Mostly sunny. Light south wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning. and	42 degrees	,	4:24 sunset.
Tonight. Feels like … November 7th.	A chance of rain, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. and	34 degrees	,	7:06 sunrise.
Saturday. Feels like … November 6th.	Rain, mainly before 1pm, then showers likely after 1pm. High near 53. South wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. and	53 degrees	,	4:24 sunset.
Saturday Night. Feels like … November 23rd.	Mostly cloudy. West wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. and	29 degrees	,	7:07 sunrise.
Sunday. Feels like … December 9th.	Partly sunny. West wind 5 to 8 mph. and	40 degrees	,	4:23 sunset.
Sunday Night. Feels like … December 7th.	Mostly clear. and	25 degrees	,	7:08 sunrise.
Monday. Feels like … November 28th.	Sunny. and	44 degrees	,	4:23 sunset.
Monday Night. Feels like … November 13th.	A chance of rain and snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. and	32 degrees	,	7:09 sunrise.
Tuesday. Feels like … November 11th.	Rain likely before 1pm, then showers likely after 1pm. Cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. and	51 degrees	,	4:23 sunset.
Tuesday Night. Feels like … October 9th.	A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 50%. and	43 degrees	,	7:10 sunrise.
Wednesday. Feels like … November 11th.	A chance of showers. Partly sunny. Chance of precipitation is 40%. and	51 degrees	,	4:23 sunset.
Wednesday Night. Feels like … November 17th.	A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. and	31 degrees	,	7:11 sunrise.
Thursday. Feels like … December 15th.	Mostly sunny. and	38 degrees	,	4:23 sunset.

Daily Update – December 2, 2022

Andy | December 2, 2022

Good morning! A pleasant Friday! 🌅

Maybe I should have taken today off but it’s going to cloud up later.

Partly sunny and 30 degrees in Delmar, NY. ☀ Calm wind. Things will start to thaw out at around 8 am. 🌡️

I am waiting with bated breath to find out if I have jury duty next week. 👨‍⚖️ I would kind of like to know, as otherwise I will take off some time next week to head out of town as I’m thinking a long weekend would be nice. Regular Season ends this weekend in the Northern Zone, so it will be quiet in the woods if I head up to the Adirondacks bar the concessional black powder guy, but they are even more rare in the Adirondacks then other places. 🐻 The following week, assuming it’s decent and I don’t have jury duty, I’m thinking of heading out to Central NY for a few days.

I have quite a few more hours to take off before the end of the year, 🏕 so I should plan some time off. The past month though I haven’t taken many days off because it’s been tough to find any extended time periods with decent weather. 🌦 I hate to just take time off to sit at home and do nothing all week. Rather just get work done at work, it breaks up the time, and I don’t have to pay for extra heat or electricity when I’m in the office.

I’ve been continuing to work through that FreeCodeCamp Course. 👨‍🏫 Right now I’m working on one of the credit projects. I think I’m spending too much time working on it, making the CSS sheet look all pretty when the machine evaluation of the code structure doesn’t really care what it looks like as long as the tags evaluate properly. But whatever it’s good practice, though I do want to move on to the more advanced parts of the code.

Installed Visual Studio Code on my Laptop. I’ve been using RStudio and Jupyter and Geany for most of my text editing needs, 🤖 but I’m very impressed with VSCode right now. Maybe it’s time to switch over to it. I like RStudio for it’s speed but VS Code is also speedy too. I need to get a good IDE that I really master for everything, especially as I do more coding these days.

Last night, got my steps in and went to bed. 🛌 Most nights during the winter I’m not super ambitious. Also did some reading and research on a few topics of interest. But nothing too remarkable. The library is closed today for staff training 📚 so I won’t be able to go there tonight.

Weather Update – December 1, 2022

Andy | December 1, 2022

Not as blustery as I thought this morning 🌬

I think there is more wind downtown though. But certainly my walk in the woods this morning at Swift Preserve it’s not been real windy. But who knows later on. I probably should have gotten an earlier start and did the walk around the High School to get more steps in but I think I will be okay, as I did a fair number of steps just walking around the preserve and will try to walk more on the plaza later on this morning before work. Then go up to Washington Park for a stroll at lunch time.

I’m waiting for 6 PM tonight to find out whether or not I will have to serve on a jury next week. That will effect my plans for next week, but if not I am thinking of taking the second half of the week off to go up to the Adirondacks. Mostly just to get away for a few days.

Today. Feels like … December 9th.	Partly sunny. Windy, with a west wind 21 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. and	40 degrees	,	4:24 sunset.
Tonight. Feels like … December 7th.	Mostly cloudy. West wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light after midnight. and	25 degrees	,	7:05 sunrise.
Friday. Feels like … November 28th.	Mostly sunny. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. and	44 degrees	,	4:24 sunset.
Friday Night. Feels like … November 10th.	A slight chance of rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then a chance of rain. Increasing clouds. South wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. and	33 degrees	,	7:06 sunrise.
Saturday. Feels like … November 3rd.	Rain, mainly after 7am. High near 54. South wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. and	54 degrees	,	4:24 sunset.
Saturday Night. Feels like … November 20th.	A slight chance of showers before 1am. Partly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 20%. and	30 degrees	,	7:07 sunrise.
Sunday. Feels like … December 9th.	Mostly sunny. and	40 degrees	,	4:24 sunset.
Sunday Night. Feels like … December 7th.	Partly cloudy. and	25 degrees	,	7:08 sunrise.
Monday. Feels like … December 3rd.	Mostly sunny. and	42 degrees	,	4:23 sunset.
Monday Night. Feels like … November 17th.	A chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. and	31 degrees	,	7:09 sunrise.
Tuesday. Feels like … November 21st.	A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 40%. and	47 degrees	,	4:23 sunset.
Tuesday Night. Feels like … November 10th.	A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. and	33 degrees	,	7:10 sunrise.
Wednesday. Feels like … December 12th.	Partly sunny. and	39 degrees	,	4:23 sunset.

Daily Update – December 1, 2022

Andy | December 1, 2022

Good morning! Happy December. 🤶

The final month of the year is upon us. Soon we’ll have to start updating our calendars to 2023. And then a few months of winter before things start to warm up once again. Usually though the winter months are busier at work and I find ways to keep things moving forward as I wait for spring time to arrive.

Partly cloudy around the freezing point at the Swift Wetland Preserve. 🌤️ Calm wind.

I was running 🏃 a bit late this morning so I decided to go for a walk in Swift Wetland Preserve near my apartment rather than the super block around the High School 🚸 as there is less traffic 🚥 and carbon monoxide there and I have more control over the length of the hike there doing laps. I think I’ll still be able to get my steps in if I walk at lunch time and maybe a few more around the plaza.

Not as cold as I expected so things are a bit muddy 👢 at the preserve but that’s fine. It’s better when things are more frozen, though they have a lot of bridges and boards over the wettest part of the preserve. Even though the preserve is right next door, I haven’t been there in like in a year, because I normally do my bigger hike around the woods or the super block around the school

I am waiting to hear about jury duty service this afternoon 👨‍⚖️ as that will impact what my plans are for next week and which days I take off. It looks like when we get past Tuesday next week, we should have a good weather for a change, with quite a bit of sun but maybe seasonably cold. But I have a several days I should take off or I will loose them before at end of the year, and I can’t take off any of the last week because the other director is off.

Weather Update – November 30, 2022

Andy | November 30, 2022

Rainy and then blustery 🌬

That wind will make it feel cold tonight it seems, but at least it should hopefully limit the risk of a flash freeze and excessive salting on the roads. But I stocked up well at the grocery store so I shouldn’t have to go out right away, except maybe for the Save the Pine Bush hike on Saturday. But now that looks like rain. And I was hoping to get up to the Adirondacks after that. Doesn’t seem likely based on the most recent forecast.

Then next week is kind of up in the air as I might have jury duty or I might not have to report next week. I figure statistically the chance of having to report next week is low, as I could be called one of the four other weeks in December. Will know on Thursday evening. I do want to take off the second half of next week, assuming it’s decent and I’m not called to go up North or maybe to Cazenovia. A lot depends on how much snow is in both locations and the weather. But it’s been a long time since I’ve spent a night in the wilderness or had a nice big fire.

Today. Feels like … November 3rd.	Rain likely, mainly between noon and 1pm, then showers after 1pm. High near 54. South wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. and	54 degrees	,	4:25 sunset.
Tonight. Feels like … November 26th.	A chance of showers, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear. West wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. and	28 degrees	,	7:04 sunrise.
Thursday. Feels like … December 6th.	Mostly sunny. West wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. and	41 degrees	,	4:24 sunset.
Thursday Night. Feels like … December 7th.	Partly cloudy. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. and	25 degrees	,	7:05 sunrise.
Friday. Feels like … November 28th.	Mostly sunny. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning. and	44 degrees	,	4:24 sunset.
Friday Night. Feels like … November 10th.	A slight chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 20%. and	33 degrees	,	7:06 sunrise.
Saturday. Feels like … November 3rd.	Rain. High near 54. Chance of precipitation is 80%. and	54 degrees	,	4:24 sunset.
Saturday Night. Feels like … November 10th.	A chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. and	33 degrees	,	7:07 sunrise.
Sunday. Feels like … November 28th.	Mostly sunny. and	44 degrees	,	4:24 sunset.
Sunday Night. Feels like … November 30th.	Partly cloudy. and	27 degrees	,	7:08 sunrise.
Monday. Feels like … November 23rd.	A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny. Chance of precipitation is 30%. and	46 degrees	,	4:23 sunset.
Monday Night. Feels like … November 10th.	A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 50%. and	33 degrees	,	7:09 sunrise.
Tuesday. Feels like … November 18th.	A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 50%. and	48 degrees	,	4:23 sunset.