Don’t Believe the Hype; Bail Reform is Good Policy and Good Politics
Criminal Justice
2020 Property Crimes per 100k residents
Crime 🚨
Crime 🚨
A recently released Siena poll says crime is a top concern for voters this year. Which I find very odd, living in suburbs where I’m not aware of much crime occurring. Maybe I don’t own a television or read the local news but I’ve certainly never been the victim of a crime or had anything really to worry much about.
Most of my material things that I own are pretty worn out and have very little value so I don’t think anybody is likely to steal it. Breaking and entering my apartment is might get somebody an older Big Buddy Heater or a broken bicycle. Even my computer monitor is ten years old, my laptop is six years old. I guess my 22 rifle or shotgun I use for rabbit and squirrel hunting has some value but even that’s not fancy.
I used to run into panhandlers when I would occasionally park on Western Avenue and walk down Central Ave to work but they might be able a bit gruff but I never had any real issue with them. I used to walk down to John Wolcott’s house before it burned in Sheridan Hollow and while sometimes it involved stepping over garbage bags at dusk I don’t think I ever ran into too many dangerous people.
Honestly, I think people’s fear of crime really is overblown. Crime rates have fallen dramatically over the years if you look at statistics. I do agree that it probably makes sense to lock doors and secure valuable property when you are leaving for an extended period but I don’t think there are that many criminals prowling around – but sometimes if there is an opportunity to take advantage – people will.
Persuaded to Plead Guilty
Correlation, causation, facts and racism 👮🏾♀️
Correlation, causation, facts and racism 👮🏾♀️
Don’t ignore the facts, the media and public service messages remind us. Science matters says the bumper stickers. Statistical analysis is a good thing when you have a truly representative data set, when there are no individuals but instead are things that are entirely alike, such as machines churned out of a factory.
Most people agree that the criminal justice system should not treat blacks different than whites. That people shouldn’t be judged based on skin color or denied housing or a job because they are black. They note skin color isn’t something you can change. But what about science and statistics that say elsewise? It’s a very proactive but morally fraught question. That say that an African American is more likely to have drugs or be engaged in criminal activity? It doesn’t take a lot of analysis of arrest or jail records to find that there is a nexus between race and involvement in the justice system.
However, that is a bad analysis for a couple of reasons. For one, if police officers are applying this analysis in their everyday business – racial profiling – then they are biasing the sample. Stop more black motorists and search their cars, of course you are going to find more drugs and crime from black motorists. Put more cops in low income neighborhoods, then you are going to have more people arrested for crime there, as cops are looking for crime there.
Then you have the issue of individuals being unique. Statistics are just that – averages or median values, what exists in the middle but not in reality. Just because a person’s skin color is dark, doesn’t mean they are automatically a criminal. Likewise, just because a person lives in a low income neighborhood doesn’t mean they are committing crime.
Everybody accepts that race isn’t a good tool to judge people by as it’s not changeable. But other characteristics, while potentially changeable – occupation, income, housing location, dress, affiliation with groups or organizations – aren’t very good either as looking at statistics doesn’t necessarily describe an individual.
Observing statistics is a powerful tool. Combined with maps, you can really get an idea of problematic areas via means and medians. You can find inliers and outliers, help you evaluate risks. The problem with using statistics isn’t that they don’t provide good information – they do – but they don’t adjust for bias caused by the observer or the uniqueness of individuals.
Ultimately the problem with profiling and pigeon holing individuals is its not fair or just. Individuals are automous, they are not solely defined by one characteristic or attribute. Racial or any other type of profiling might be effective policing – in a statistical sense – but it’s not fair to individuals its applied to. Liberty comes at a cost, and sometimes that involves ignoring statistical evidence, instead choosing to respect human freedom and dignity over stopping and prosecuting more crime.
How bad is the rise in US homicides? Factchecking the ‘crime wave’ narrative police are pushing | US crime | The Guardian
But what’s happening with homicides is not part of some broader “crime wave.” In fact, many crimes, from larcenies to robberies to rape, dropped during the pandemic, and continued to fall during the first few months of 2021. “Crime” is not surging. Even the broader category of “violent crime” only increased about 3% last year, according to the preliminary FBI data from a large subset of cities. It’s homicide in particular that has increased, even as other crimes fell.
Early data also suggests the homicide increase isn’t happening at random, but that much of the additional violence is clustered in disadvantaged neighborhoods of color that were already struggling with higher rates of gun violence before the pandemic, according to Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist who has authored multiple national reports on crime and violence trends.
I don’t get why the politicians are talking so much about crime lately
I don’t get why the politicians are talking so much about crime lately. Maybe it’s because I don’t own a color television but I’ve not noticed any difference in the crime levels locally. I’ve not been a victim of a crime nor do I know anyone else lately.
It does seem like Downtown Albany is a little rougher now, although some of that has to do with real estate speculation on Lark Street and rebuilding from the disorder in Albany last summer. But I feel like it’s hard to say crime is out of control.