From the beginning, models have been remarkably accurate – Vox

Climate change: From the beginning, models have been remarkably accurate – Vox

The researchers did a comprehensive literature review for pre-1990 models; for post-1990 models, they followed the literature reviews of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They ended up choosing 17 models to closely analyze, dating from 1970 through 2007 — models old enough to be testable against decades of observational data.

To be clear, almost all the models chosen are no longer in use, having been superseded by more sophisticated models since. Some of the earlier ones, especially those from the 1970s and early ’80s, are fairly crude energy-in, energy-out models, with a single variable for forcing (CO2) and a crude measure of climate sensitivity (the amount temperature rises per additional ton of CO2). It wasn’t until the late ’80s that James Hansen and other scientists developed multivariable general-circulation models.

It turns out that even those crude early models were fairly accurate, which is remarkable given the sophistication of the science and the available computing power. None of the models the authors analyzed got it badly wrong.

It’s Alive … The New Version of Blog

It’s alive! πŸ˜€

After a week of debugging, and finally fixing the preformance and mobile issues with my blog, 🐞 I think it’s official to describe the new version as official. Not that it makes much of a difference, but I think now that I’ve dug into what was causing the performance plugin — a “lost page finding” plugin, I think it’s working great now. I replaced the functionality of that plug-in with my own code on 404 page, and it seems much faster then it’s been in a long time!

Tree

Didn’t get skiing today

I didn’t get out skiing today 🎿…

Last night I sealed the split tip of my ski trip and but after reading the label for the glue I used, they recommended a full 24 hours to cure and 72 hours for maximum strength. So I decided to apply a second layer of glue and seal the tip of ski and then I put another layer of glue on the tips of my ski boots and patching and sealing any other cracks and wear on both skis. After this I should be set for a good snowy winter.

Instead of skiing I’ve been riding the exercise bike 🚲 and I walked down to the library 🚶 and will probably go for an evening walk later. I should go to the store but I’m thinking about getting an early start tomorrow and might ski the rail trail 🚈 in the morning.