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Addison County, VT
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Questions? Need an updated map? Email me andy@andyarthur.org.
"For as long as we can remember, the most popular series in FRED has been the consumer price index (CPI). Well, not anymore. Recently, the series describing the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury constant maturity rates became the most popular. Why this sudden interest? It has to do with the concept of the yield curve: Under normal circumstances, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term interest rates (when annualized), principally because the long term is usually perceived as riskier and so long-term debt demands a higher return. Again, normally, if you plot the interest rates at different maturities, you get an upward-sloping (yield) curve. But if for some reason the short term becomes unusually risky, the curve (or portions of it) may become downward sloping. And why is that important? The graph makes it clear that this kind of yield curve inversion has been associated with impending recessions."
Generally, GDP growth is fairly strong, although many are concerned that a recession is just lurking around around the corner. Note that this data is not seasonally adjusted but you can get the seasonably adjusted numbers here. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8eiT
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1, March 22, 2019.
"The Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since the last crisis Friday, triggering the first reliable market signal of an impending recession and rate-cutting cycle. The gap between the three-month and 10-year yields vanished as a surge of buying pushed the latter to a 14-month low of 2.416 percent. Inversion is considered a reliable harbinger of recession in the U.S., within roughly the next 18 months."
With the various Vermont dairies dotting the landscape of Addison County.
"Unknown to hundreds of millions of Facebook users, their passwords were sitting in plain text inside the company's data storage, leaving them vulnerable to potential employee misuse and cyberattack for years."
I can't believe that they couldn't be bothered to use at least MD5 hashes for the passwords. It's not like MD5 hashes are particularly CPU or memory intensive to implement.
This weekend at night, if you are in a rural area without much light pollution, look north and you may very well see the Northern Lights. π
Good morning! Yeah, it’s Friday! Three weeks to Grilled Cheese Day π§. A mix of rain and snow flurries and 34 degrees at the Elm Ave Park & Ride – CDTA. β Above freezing here but I saw a sander come through while I was walking down to the park and ride.π There is a north breeze at 10 mph. π. Temperatures will drop below freezing at tomorrow around noontime. βοΈ
I was on the fence about walking πΆ down to the express bus π but ultimately I decided it wasn’t raining or snowing all that hard. It turned out not to be too bad for walking and I got some free exercise out of it. Just going to be one of those rainy β Fridays.
Today will rain and snow, becoming all rain after noon. π§ High of 41 degrees at 3pm. Five degrees below normal, which is similar to a typical day around March 11th. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. A year ago, we had cloudy in the morning, which became mostly sunny by afternoon. The high last year was 45 degrees. The record high of 81 was set in 2012. 7.0 inches of snow fell back in 1887.β
I guess rain β is a good thing, as it will keep things from getting too dried out, and thaw out the ground for all the farmer π types that want to sling manure. π© Lots of mud though. I think they are getting wet snow in the Adirondacks π» which means it will be longer before it melts away up there. It will happen though, as spring πΈ always comes eventually and it will be ninety degrees out and humid. Beach weather!π
The sun will set at 7:10 pm with dusk around 7:38 pm, which is one minute and 9 seconds later than yesterday. π At sunset, look for even more rain π§ and snow π¨ and temperatures around 37 degrees. There will be a west-northwest breeze at 14 mph. Today will have 12 hours and 16 minutes of daytime, an increase of 2 minutes and 55 seconds over yesterday.
Tonight will rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10pm. π§ Low of 27 degrees at 6am. One degrees below normal, which is similar to a typical night around March 21st. Blustery, with a northwest wind 14 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. In 2018, we had partly cloudy. It got down to 30 degrees. The record low of -04 occurred back in 1875.
Tomorrow will have a chance of snow showers before 8am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny π, with a high of 39 degrees at 3pm. Eight degrees below normal, which is similar to a typical day around March 3rd. Breezy, with a northwest wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. A year ago, we had cloudy in the morning, which became mostly sunny by afternoon. The high last year was 43 degrees. The record high of 80 was set in 1938. 2.7 inches of snow fell back in 2005.β Looking ahead to Sunday, sunny, with a high near 54. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Typical average high for the weekend is 47 degrees.
At some point this weekend I should go to JC Penny and see if they have any dress shirts that I like π, so I have enough for next week. I haven’t heard back from John yet about going over to his house, it also depends if I get a cold. Still thinking about doing some hiking or skiing πΏ this weekend, it depends on how things go. I’d rather save some money now if the weather isn’t great and do things around home if it looks cloudy and cold. Maybe also I want to unpack my camping gear, and start loading up the cans πΎ and glass π₯«to take to the recycling center.β» I also need to clean out my refigerator, dump the food waste into compost, and clean the containers for recycling.
I signed up for defensive driving π on April 15th. Cost has gone up to $25, makes me want to think about doing an online class in future years. I’ve been thinking about readjusting my insurance or shopping around – it’s gotten a lot more expensive in recent years ever since I increased my liability insurance a few years back. π£
Later that week maybe on the 17th or 18th of April, right before Good Friday, I will probably head up to the Adirondacks to camp βΊ and fish.π£ I am increasingly leaning towards doing a trip heading up NY 30, spread out over a couple of days, maybe spending one night near the St. Regis Canoe Area, ending the long weekend at Brasher State Forest. All depends a lot on how much snow they have up there, and what I feel like doing. A Central NY trip, fishing the Chittenango Creek and Genegantslet Creek, visiting different state forests could be fun too, but I kind of want to get up to the Adirondacks. I should study the stocking schedules, π so I know where would be a good place to fish.
In four weeks on Good Friday, April 19 the sun will be setting at 7:42 pm,π which is 31 minutes and 56 seconds later then today. In 2018 on that day, we had cold, partly cloudy, rain showers and temperatures between 44 and 34 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 60 and 39 degrees. The record high of 92 degrees was set back in 1976.
Looking ahead, Grilled Cheese Day π§ is in 3 weeks, Earth Day π is a month away, Pack Rat Day π is in 8 weeks, Memorial Day Weekend Starts ποΈ is in 9 weeks, Average High is 80 π is in 3 months, Dog Days of Summer π» is in 15 weeks, Labor Day Weekend Begins π¨βπ is in 23 weeks and Autumn π is in 6 months.
