Generally, higher elevations have an earlier coldest day of the year, while areas farther west and lower elevations have a later coldest day of the year. I think the north-west later has to do with the sun angle, along with the way the Great Lakes impact the local climate.
This past weekend's negative 13 degree weather is quite rare in recent years. We've only had two days colder then that over the past two decades, and that was 15 years ago. Some of it's the urban heat island effect, while other is the climate is warming everywhere, New York included.
Between 1951 and 1969, the Punxsutawney Phil always saw his shadow. In comparison, between 2005 and 2024, the Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see his shadow 7 times. 🐻
The facts are simple — the Ground Hog is seeing his shadow less today then in years past. Long winters are becoming rarer.
It wouldn't be Ground Hog Day without this song.