2024 will be an election year. So will 2026 and 2028. Either Joe Biden or Donald Trump will win in 2024 most likely, and either the Democrats or Republicans will control the US House and Senate. An election will determine that this year, and another election will determine that in 2026 and 2028. Both Biden and Trump are term limited in 2028, and even if they somehow could get away with ignoring the constitution, their advance age will send them packing not long beyond that.
Do I have faith in the politicians to not try to tweak the rules so their favored party wins extraordinarily close election? Of course, not. I’ve been around Albany along enough to not be that stupid. But extraordinarily close elections are as much a coin toss as anything else. Storm clouds, a car with a dead battery, a phone call to one’s niece can often determine close elections. Or a clever intrepration of election law, or how the existing law puts a finger on the scale on who wins the election. Really when the election is that close, it doesn’t matter who ends up winning, because essentially the winning candidate reflects either majority sentiment or close to majority sentiment. The next go-around, things might be different.
While in a pure discussion of fairness, you can say a candidate who has 48% popular support winning over the candidate 52% popular support is anti-Democratic. But regardless of who is chosen, virtually the same the number of people will have backed the winner and loser. It’s a rounding error. If the 52% view can’t win under the enacted rules, then they’ll just have to win over a few more supporters, so they get 54% or maybe 56% so they win the election. And then they can play around with the rules, to tilt the election rules more in their favor.
Often I make adage that the reason why bad things happen is because nearly everybody wins in some way when those bad things happen. That’s certainly the case with the ever so profitable mass shootings and probably true with Donald Trump being the Republican Nominee.
Let me explain…
Donald Trump if he gets the Republican nomination for President has a very powerful chip to plea bargin away for his federal and arguably state felony charges. Few Americans facing felonies can say they are one election away from the White House and voluntarily give it up for a significant fine and ten years probation and potential house arrest. It is literally the biggest single thing one could literally give up outside of one’s life and liberty for a long period of time.
The federal prosecutor wins by being able to stop a dangerous felon from once again being in the White House where he could cause so many problems for the nation.
At the same time, the Republican Party could benefit significantly from Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination by the primary system. Should Trump become the Republican nomination then step down, the National Republican Committee would be empowered to name his successor. They could pick a sensible, competitive nominee such as Mike Pence or some other dark horse who depending on the economy and state of world affairs could very competitive against the aging and rather bland incumbent of Joe Biden. Trump is a bad candidate but a plea could get rid of him while keeping the base happy.
Don’t underestimate the ability of Donald Trump to excite Republican voters and help boost grass roots efforts, especially through his sense of grievance to the system. While ultimately I see Trump pleaing out the felony charges, I don’t think he’ll stop bashing the big government, rigged system until the day he enters his plea. This excitement will help the GOP turn out voters come election day, without the divisive sib-prime candidate that Trump ultimately is. Indicted felon just writes campaign ads, not that voters needed to be reminded of the obvious.
It’s a dream come true for Democrats to be running against a once lost candidate, indicted felon for President. Democrats and the Joe Biden campaign know Trump’s weakness and they know a winning strategy at least in the political environment of 2020. Prior results often do predict future performance although things are changing in the political environment.
An indicted felon who says crazy things and loves to sling mud and manure is perfect for the news media and selling lots of advertising for Korean cars and laundry soap. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for television and radio with his short crazy clips and gives the press so much to analyze especially as he faces multiple felony criminal cases that could put him in prison for what would effectively be the rest of his life.
These are the counties were Donald Trump got more then 70 percent of the vote.While there are more deep red counties in America, especially in the heartland, relatively few people live there.
I think the concept of the self pardon by Donald Trump should he be elected in 2024 is exaggerated. While it’s true that the president may have the power of self pardon, it’s likely to be deeply unpopular and will most likely be the political death of his presidency – as nobody likes it when a politician is primarily self interested and tampers with the administration of justice.
The reason why Donald Trump is still a popular candidate at this point is he was an effective leader at addressing conservative concerns – delivering tax relief, returning regulation of abortion to the states, making limited progress on gun rights and appointing a decidedly conservative Supreme Court. But if the president elects first actions are solely to benefit himself then I find it hard to fathom that he’ll have the popular support to accomplish the rest of his agenda.
I am pretty sure either Donald Trump will be convicted of a felony unless there is a hung jury with his New York criminal case. Whether or not the case is reversed on appeal, it seems likely that one of the leading presidential candidates will be a convicted felon. This means at least in the State of Florida, he won’t be allowed to vote for himself for President unless of course the legislature decides to change law, just for him.
Not that I’m convinced that this is a bad thing. For too long government has been held in too high of regard, the decisions of millions of government bureaucrats viewed as virtuous by default. There has been a reverence for the American government and those who work for it, even though government workers are just humans with as many flaws and bad decisions that are common not only in private business but in the administration of government.
Government, and our country needs to be knocked down a peg. Government workers, the courts, the police should be viewed with a degree of contempt. They should be looked down as a necessary evil, but something that is not virtuous but as servants of people. A leading presidential candidate who is a felon may forever change how we view our country, start a true discussion of the size and scope of government.
NEW YORK — Donald Trump told an appellate court here Monday that he can’t obtain a bond for the full amount of the civil fraud judgment against him — more than $450 million, including interest — raising the possibility that the state attorney general’s office could begin to seize his assets unless the court agrees to halt the judgment while the former president appeals the verdict.
Trump’s lawyers said in a court filing that “ongoing diligent efforts have proven that a bond in the judgment’s full amount is a ‘practical impossibility,’” adding that those efforts “have included approaching about 30 surety companies through 4 separate brokers.”
