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Bird watching
2026 to 2036 | Congressional Budget Office
Higher tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, raising prices for U.S. consumers and businesses. Because many imports are used as inputs in domestic production, higher tariffs also indirectly raise the costs of goods and services produced domestically using imports. In CBO’s assessment, foreign exporters will absorb 5 percent of the cost of the tariffs, slightly offsetting the import price increases faced by U.S. importers. In the near term, CBO anticipates, U.S. businesses will absorb 30 percent of the import price increases by reducing their profit margins; the remaining 70 percent will be passed through to consumers by raising prices. In addition, U.S. businesses that produce goods that compete with foreign imports will, in CBO’s assessment, increase their prices because of the decline in competition from abroad and the increased demand for tariff-free domestic goods. Those price increases are estimated to fully offset the 30 percent of price increases absorbed by U.S. businesses that import goods, so the net effect of tariffs is to raise U.S. consumer prices by the full portion of the cost of the tariffs borne domestically (95 percent).2 In CBO’s projections, the new tariffs increase the price index for personal consumption expenditures by about 0.8 percentage points at the end of 2026 but have negligible additional effects in 2027 and beyond.
In addition to raising prices and reducing consumption, tariffs are projected to reduce investment and output. Tariffs raise the cost of imported machinery, components, and materials, dampening real investment. Investment by businesses relocating production to the United States will offset some of the adverse effect of higher costs of investment. Reallocation of resources to produce products that were previously imported also lowers efficiency and reduces output. Uncertainty about the future path of trade policy further discourages and delays investment by increasing the risk associated with long-term planning. The elevated uncertainty about trade policy during 2025, which peaked in April, reduces investment through 2027 in CBO’s projections.
Leading up to Valentines Day ♥️
One of these days I should get myself a girl friend, a tough motherfucker who likes big trucks, is not afraid to ram her hand up a cow’s rear end to preg test, shovel manure or make some black smoke burning a little garbage out in the country.
I do enjoy my freedom, 
the nights in the wilderness, but I am a bit jealous of all my friends and colleagues with their homesteads and often kids now heading off to college. Hard to believe it was 22 years ago now that I was expelled from college over a debate on Academic Freedom and then graduated two years later from SUNY Plattsburgh, went on to my career in Assembly going on 19 years this year. How fast time comes and goes, indeed I’m closer to retirement then my college days which seem just like yesterday. 
Maybe some day I’ll settle down, but I like my big trucks and the money, and nights up in wilderness. I work hard and make good money, fuck those who say I should buy a plastic house and a 20-year old Honda Civic for car commuting every day to work, so you’re not a sad desperate individual who rides his bike to work. 
I’ve always hated the trapping of suburbia, I like dirt and smell of the wood smoke, farm dirt and manure, not the stink of middle class suburban life with the kids bragging about their elite colleges they attend.
The plan is to leave early this morning, and ride over to Wally World 
and get some holiday candy to hand out my colleagues in the office. I’ve been putting off the meeting about reminding people to sign in, delivering a status update from the programmers on the database update, and discuss other programs I’ve been working on. 
I am sure in the afternoon I’ll have meetings downtown, and then I can ride the bike home. I was out at 5 AM this morning to go to Stewart’s to get milk 
in plastic, even though I told myself I would get milk delivered in glass rather then spending my days looking for public recycling 
bins to dump empties in. I miss being up in woods and being able to just burn that crap. It’s nice, it’s not so cold this morning, at least when I went out to Stewart’s, so it should be good ride in. 
Nothing like the bitter cold of last week, or the wet salty slop of the past Wednesday. But a plowed through it on my bike.
Apple pancakes this morning, 
with lots of ginger and cinnamon. Pretty damn good tasting, 
good fuel for the day, with added carrots for the fiber. Yum just the smell of the shredded apples. Watching the sun rise 
as the days rapidly get longer and the winter fades away. I look forward to warmer days, and traveling, especially once I get the cap and things wired up on the new rig. Looking forward to that ride this morning, and getting through the work day. Maybe leave a bit before five PM and then ride home. It is nice to avoid the bus as much as possible. Hoping by next week if the snow disappears from the rail trail after the rain and warmer weather, I can go back to riding both ways to work nearly every day. I hate dealing with buses, loading the bike on the bus, paying the fare, etc.
Tomorrow starts the long weekend, but without a truck I obviously won’t be straying too far from home, but with the warmer temperatures it would have meant sloppy weather for camping 
at Rensselearville had Big Red not been retired. Do need to do more shopping. I’ll get a few things at Walmart today when I get candy, 
but I want to get additional things this weekend. And maybe also shop at Hannaford. I want to get both a big bag of pinto beans and more cornmeal, as I can get those things in bulk at Walmart for a good price. 
And who knows where else to explore. I expect with the deep snow still around but warming temperatures, things will be kind fo we.
Next week, weather dependent 
I might look at and test drive the three trucks I’ve looked at DePaula Ford, I keep reviewing dealership strategy and how to get a fair deal on the truck I actually want. I just want to be taken seriously, I don’t want to hear from dealerships, oh, but we don’t think your SuperDuty material, what you want is a blown engine F-150 or a Ranger. 
I’m the fucking paying customer, I don’t need to play that game 
– if you don’t want to sell me the damn truck – good bye, you’re not getting my business. There are literally close 100 Ford dealers within 150 miles of Albany.
Honestly, I have my doubts about test driving next week, as I think it’s going to rain the second half of next week. 
Do some shopping 
and ride around town this weekend. And some reading. 
I was looking at that Ford F-350 I was eying the other day with the XL Off-Road base package, and realized it has the Minizilla and not the Godzilla engine, so that gave me some pause. Really think I’d be better off with an STX-FX4 package and Godzilla, it would look a lot nicer, get some better features and have more power for climbing mountains and resale value if I eventually decide the Godzilla doesn’t serve my needs. Plus, a Godzilla with the 10R140 without towing, isn’t going to ever be running a high load factor, which improves reliablity further. Really not that much extra. I like the bigger tires but I can always add that later on to the rig when the factory tires inevitably wear out in a few years, and then I can get 35s for it. I don’t have to decide today or even next week. 
I want to close the deal though by the end of March and either take delivery late March or early April.
I was kind of pissed that my electric and gas bill was $143 for January into February, 
but I concede it was cold, I’ve been home a lot, doing a lot of cooking, and especially using the heated blanket. And also during the winter weekends, the space heater, as I get chilled through quickly at 48 degrees, being thinner then I used to be. 
I’ve tried to seal around the door, but it still leaks as does around the downstairs windows. I guess the landlord replacing the upstairs windows and the bad refrigerator helped, but the problem downstairs is because that outside wall keeps shifting and the windows don’t bend like the walls do, well after cracking. That building is kind of a hot mess, but it’s cheap even if it’s drafty. Everything is literally falling apart, but that’s what you get for $800 a month these days. And I’m sure another rent increase is on the way at some point soon, as everythng else is going up in prices. It’s fine, worse comes to worse, I’ll cut back on savings rates, but hopefully there will be a COLA this year at work and bonus payments. 
And the market will keep growing, dividends and capital gains all around. I expect I’l have the heat off within a month, if March is anywhere similiar to recent years. Then it just will electric blanket at night.