Oil

The Impact of Gas Prices on My Summer Plans

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I have been thinking a lot lately about the High Gas Prices and what they mean for summer plans. I typically enjoy traveling by doing roadside camping in the Adirondack Park and other public lands, so one of the biggest costs in my experiences is gasoline.

I knew gas prices might be high when I bought my truck by spring time. They often are highest around election time, only to fall back down to lower levels after election season. This summer is no exception.

Great Blue Heron Wing Span

So I was thinking about what this all means…

1) Planning longer trips and fewer shorter trips. A lot of the gas is consumed driving back and forth to destination. Far less gasoline is consumed when one is at their destination.

Moose River Plains Road

2) Chose to spend longer time in one destination. Usually when I am on vacation I tend to rush to one place to another, consuming a lot of gasoline.driving from one place to another in the Adirondacks or wherever I may be. Why not pick a campsite, and spend more time enjoying the immediate landscape?

Spruce Along East Canada Creek

3) Avoid idling as much as possible. Hopefully with the deep cycle battery on my pickup, I will be able to keep idling to generate electricity for camping to a minimum.

4) Consider campsites that have as much nearby as possible to do. Possibly choosing campsites near a lake for paddling — like the Wakley Dam Campsites at Cedar River Flow or any of the campsites along North Lake in Adirondacks.

Making Coffee

5) Realize that gas costs really haven’t gone up that much from last year. While gas may cost an additional buck an gallon, that still only means an additional $20-$30 per trip, if the plan is drive between 400-600 miles for vacation. If your already spending $60-90 for your trip on gas, what difference is between that and $80-$120. More money, but if your having fun, so be it.

Cooking Breakfast

6) Not Skipping Things on Trips Because of Gas Costs. In my view it’s pretty stupid to not spend an additional $10 in gas, if have already burned through $40 in gas to get to your destination. If there is something worth seeing, you got to do it.

Still a Pretty Nice Afternoon

7) Finally, just not worry about it. If I am on vacation, just put the gas on the credit card. I will worry about paying it down when I get back home. Things are going to cost what they cost, and I don’t really care much one way or another.

Being Uneconomical for an Uncertain Future

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.There is a common line of thought that argues that we should undertake a massive restructuring of the economy, even if it has no current clear benefit, in preparation for some dramatic future change like climate change or peak oil. Folks like Bill McKibbean have the logic, unless we make drastic changes now, the future will be bleak.

Their logic reminds one a lot of the logic of a High School Guidance Counselor, pushing over-priced college educations at so-called “select institutions” that are very over pricd. They argue unless one gets an expensive college education, the future will be bleak. They say, unless you go seriously in debt, you will have no future and be without a good job.

Trees Lines

Nobody today can tell us for sure about when or if climate change will occur, or for that matter what the impacts of peak oil will be. We have projections and models that extrapolate data based on today’s conditions and projected changes, but they probably are not accurate as effects rarely are linear. It�s quite possible that effect our growing use of fossil fuels may be far different then anything yet predicted.

Yet, it�s also hard to object to efficiency standards and pollution controls on power plants that benefit society now. More energy while burning less fuel will benefit the economy by lowering costs over the long-run. More fuel efficient cars, while possibly more expensive up front, will provide drivers with lower fuel bills over the car�s life. Good standards that improve efficiency, conserve resources, and reduce pollution, help us now.

Medusa

I disagree with folk like Bill McKibbean who argue for a radical transformation of the economy based on a projection of climate change or peak oil. We should work to conserve resources and clean up our generating plants, but not because of a future projection, but to improve economic efficiency and the quality of our lives today. If with incidentally also help change the projection for bad things to happen tomorrow, then all the better.

Peak Resource Theories

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Notes on the Re-Run for Saturday, May 5th.

— Andy

The problem with “peak” theories is they ignore the law of supply and demand. As one learns in Economics 101, everything has a demand curve, which shows that as price rises, demand for a product declines. People look for alternatives when prices increase.

Clouds on Water

This curve is known as the price-elasticity coefficient, and is calculated by the “percentage change in quanity demanded of product x” divided by “percentage change in price of product x”. Some products are considered fairly elastic and other more inelastic, depending on how subsitutable one product is with another one.

Higher prices change both consumer choice and behavior. People will for and foremost look for alternatives. If no alternatives are avaliable, people will alter their use of a product, such as adopting more efficent techniques of use of a product, and then ultimately reducing consumption by choosing alternative methods of living that use less of a product.

Pickup with Ice

For example, gasoline.

If gasoline prices go up, and people believe that gasoline prices will remain high, they will look at alternatives to gasoline, like E85 ethanol or gasoline made from sythentic petroleum. If that doesn’t work, they will over time purchase more fuel efficent cars, canceling car trips, taking public transit, and moving closer to where they work.