Seasons

Scientists hope that the new model — called GFS-FV3, for Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core — is going to improve the accuracy of U.S. weather predictions, currently in third place behind those of two other European weather agencies (SN Online: 9/21/17). It’s the first significant upgrade to the GFS in about 40 years. And so far, the tests suggest that the FV3 model has more accurate five-day forecasts, as well as better predictions of hurricane tracks and intensification.

A dynamical core is the engine of a weather model, solving equations that describe the numerous, complex physical interactions between the atmosphere and ocean, so that they can be incorporated into the model. Launched June 12, the new model produces more detailed images faster than the previous one, which means that it can incorporate more weather processes that might otherwise be missed, the weather service says. Unlike the previous GFS model, GFS-FV3 is also able to simulate vertical movements such as updrafts, a key component of severe weather, at very high resolution.