February 21, 2023 Morning
Good morning! Happy Tuesday. Partly clear and 28 degrees in Delmar, NY. โ Calm wind. Things will start to thaw out at around 9 am. ๐ก๏ธ
This morning is a struggle to get going ๐ด but I’m rolling along out for my morning walk ๐ถ. The forecast and everything else is going to make getting the steps in a bit of a challenge each day but I’m moving and will do my best. Always can take an earlier express bus ๐ in and do the Concourse if needed.
Not a pay week and quiet walking ๐ถ past the high school ๐ธ as the schools are on February break. But I would not say it’s February break in the office ๐ข, we are quite busy despite being casual dress. I need my coffee โ just like an addict this morning after cutting back so much in recent weeks to save money and improve health. I kind of fell off the wagon in all ways possible this weekend up in Madison County.
Today will rain and snow likely before 5pm, then rain. ๐ง High of 39 degrees at 5pm. One degree above normal, which is similar to a typical day around February 25th. Light and variable wind becoming south 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. A year ago, we had mostly sunny skies in the morning with sunny skies in the afternoon. The high last year was 30 degrees. The record high of 73 was set in 2018. 11.0 inches of snow fell back in 1929.โ
Solar noon ๐ is at 12:10 pm with sun having an altitude of 36.8ยฐ from the due south horizon (-34.1ยฐ vs. 6/21). A six foot person will cast a 8 foot shadow today compared to 2.2 feet on the first day of summer. The golden hour ๐ starts at 4:56 pm with the sun in the west-southwest (250ยฐ). ๐ธ
The sunset is in the west-southwest (257ยฐ) with the sun dropping below the horizon at 5:35 pm after setting for 2 minutes and 59 seconds with dusk around 6:03 pm, which is one minute and 17 seconds later than yesterday. ๐
At dusk you’ll see the Waxing Crescent ๐ Moon in the west-southwest (249ยฐ) at an altitude of 14ยฐ from the horizon, 230,305 miles away. ๐ The best time to look at the stars is after 6:36 pm. At sunset, look for rain ๐ง and temperatures around 39 degrees. Not much of a sunset I’ll be probably taking express all the way home. There will be a south breeze at 11 mph. Tomorrow will have 10 hours and 56 minutes of daytime, an increase of 2 minutes and 47 seconds over today.
Tonight will have a chance of rain and snow before 8pm, then a slight chance of snow between 8pm and 9pm. Partly cloudy ๐ง, with a low of 26 degrees at 6am. Seven degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical night around March 15th. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. In 2022, we had clear skies in the evening, which became cloudy by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 19 degrees. The record low of -08 occurred back in 1963.
Winter sort of returns for the weekend. โ It’s relative thing and we a little over a week from March. Saturday, partly sunny, with a high near 26. Sunday, a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Typical average high for the weekend is 39 degrees.
I’m not planning any trips until the time change ๐ at this point but it’s only three 3โฃ weeks away. Two weekends if that’s what you count. I’m ready for winter to fade away as a memory.
Looking ahead, next Tuesday is Average High is 40 โ๏ธ when the sun will be setting at 5:44 pm with dusk at 6:11 pm. Almost seems like looking back with the recent weather. On that day in 2022, we had mostly cloudy, rain showers and temperatures between 41 and 26 degrees. Typically, the high temperature is 40 degrees. We hit a record high of 63 back in 1903.
February 16, 2023 Evening
Good evening! Clouds, damp and 47 degrees in Delmar, NY. โ๏ธ Calm wind. Mild tonight but cold later. Temperatures will drop below freezing at tomorrow around 5 pm. โ๏ธ
It’s nice to be able to walk ๐ถ for one more night without any more than a vest. Tomorrow though the heat will probably have to come for a few more days. Like so many days that threaten to rain, turned out to be just a few showers.
Tonight will have showers likely, mainly after 5am. Cloudy ๐ง, with a low of 46 degrees at 12am. 28 degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical night around May 8th. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. In 2022, we had mostly clear skies in the evening, which became mostly clear by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 13 degrees. The record low of -16 occurred back in 1973.
Another busy day came and went at work. ๐ข But it made the time go by quickly. I’m doing good at eating up all the fruit and vegetables I bought on Sunday. ๐ I swear I’ve noticed some small changes since I’ve started my calorie reduction program. I’m just not nearly as hungry when I always have an apple or orange in my mouth. And I’ve done good with the steps every day.
Tonight will have a Waining Crescent ๐ Moon with 14% illuminated. The Worm ๐ Moon is on Saturday, March 4. The darkest hour is at 12:10 am, followed by dawn at 6:23 am, and sun starting to rise at 6:52 am in the east-southeast (106ยฐ) and last for 3 minutes and 1 seconds. Sunrise is one minute and 24 seconds earlier than yesterday. ๐ The golden hour ends at 7:32 am with sun in the east-southeast (113ยฐ). Tonight will have 13 hours and 18 minutes of darkness, a decrease of 2 minutes and 43 seconds over last night.
Did some cleaning this evening ๐งนaround the apartment after making macaroni and cheese ๐ง with a ton of veggies and real cheese, eat only one bowl and froze the rest for future meals. Getting milk ๐ฅ for the first time in over a week, a big drop from drinking two gallons a week. I also am skipping apple juice, the bottle I have left I bought in January. I’m spending less on groceries even if I am buying more and more fruits and vegetables which haven’t been impacted by inflation nearly as much.
Tomorrow will rain showers before 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. ๐ง๏ธ Temperature rising to near 52 by 9am, then falling to around 33 during the remainder of the day. South wind 10 to 18 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. A year ago, we had mist. The high last year was 24 degrees. The record high of 60 was set in 1981. 11.9 inches of snow fell back in 2003.โ
In four weeks on March 16 the sun will be setting in the west (269ยฐ) at 7:03 pm (Daylight Savings Time),๐ which is one hour, 34 minutes and 21 seconds later then tonight. In 2021 on that day, we had cold, mostly cloudy and temperatures between 33 and 13 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 45 and 26 degrees. The record high of 82 degrees was set back in 1990.
Looking ahead, Read Across America Day ๐ is in two weeks, Average High is 60 ๐ท is in 2 months, Arbor Day ๐ณ is in 10 weeks, 8:30 PM Dusk ๐ is in 11 weeks, 8 PM Sunset ๐ is in 11 weeks, 9 PM Dusk ๐ is in 15 weeks, June ๐น is in 15 weeks, 8:30 PM Sunset ๐ is in 16 weeks, Last Sunset After 8:30 PM ๐ is in 5 months, Ugly Truck Day ๐ is in 22 weeks, Campfire Day ๐ฅ is in 24 weeks, Columbus Day ๐ฅ๏ธ is in 34 weeks, Average High is 60 ๐ is in 35 weeks, Thanksgiving ๐ฆ is in 40 weeks, Tea Party Day ๐ is in 10 months, First Day of Winter โ๏ธ is in 44 weeks and 4:30 PM Sunset ๐ is in 45 weeks.
February 16, 2023 Morning
Good morning! Happy Thursday. Mostly clear and 44 degrees in Delmar, NY. There is a north breeze at 8 mph. ๐. Is it May? It sure feels like that for the morning walk at 6:15. Temperatures will drop below freezing at tomorrow around 4 pm. โ๏ธ
Absolutely stunning morning ๐ for February. I can’t think of a clear mild morning this nice in February ever. Waning crescent ๐ moon almost to the due south. Of course we pay for this come the evening with rain then cold by tomorrow evening.
Today will have a chance of rain, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds ๐, with a high of 53 degrees at 2pm. 17 degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical day around April 2nd. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. A year ago, we had mist. The high last year was 34 degrees. The record high of 61 was set in 2006. 17.3 inches of snow fell back in 1958.โ
No more session days this week, which means getting out at five although it matters less now that I can take the express at five regardless of the weather or dress. ๐ข Busy day ahead but I like to be busy and keep stuff moving along. ๐
Solar noon ๐ is at 12:10 pm with sun having an altitude of 35ยฐ from the due south horizon (-35.8ยฐ vs. 6/21). A six foot person will cast a 8.6 foot shadow today compared to 2.2 feet on the first day of summer.
I want to get as many steps as possible before the rain ๐ง๏ธ but who knows it might not add up to much. ๐ฃ But first breakfast after my morning walk as I’m already a bit hungry ๐. Not a reheat day. But it will save time this morning as I don’t have to iron my shirt ๐ and if I’m running late I can catch the express bus ๐ near home.
The golden hour ๐ starts at 4:49 pm with the sun in the west-southwest (247ยฐ). ๐ธ The sunset is in the west-southwest (254ยฐ) with the sun dropping below the horizon at 5:29 pm after setting for 3 minutes and 1 seconds with dusk around 5:56 pm, which is one minute and 18 seconds later than yesterday. ๐ The best time to look at the stars is after 6:30 pm. At sunset, look for rain ๐ง and temperatures around 50 degrees. There will be a calm wind. Tomorrow will have 10 hours and 43 minutes of daytime, an increase of 2 minutes and 43 seconds over today.
Tonight will rain, mainly before 1am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. ๐ง Low of 47 degrees at 7pm. 29 degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical night around May 11th. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. In 2022, we had mostly clear skies in the evening, which became mostly clear by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 13 degrees. The record low of -16 occurred back in 1973.
President’s Day Weekend starts out nice with clouds and ultimately showers come Washington’s Birthday. โ โ Saturday, sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph. Sunday, mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Washington’s Birthday still cloudy with rain showers late, 50 or so. Still mild. Typical average high for the weekend is 37 degrees.
I am a bit undecided about the upcoming weekend. โบ Mild but gray after Saturday. And it would nice to go somewhere different for the weekend. But where is the question? Or I could just stay home.
Looking ahead, there are 2 weeks until Read Across America Day ๐ when the sun will be setting at 5:47 pm with dusk at 6:14 pm. On that day in 2022, we had cold, mostly sunny and temperatures between 24 and 9 degrees. Typically, the high temperature is 40 degrees. We hit a record high of 65 back in 1991.
February 15, 2023 Evening
Good evening! Clear and 58 degrees for evening walk in Delmar, NY. ๐ There is a south breeze at 11 mph. ๐. The dew point is 41 degrees. Temperatures will drop below freezing at Friday around 4 pm. โ๏ธ
Not a half bad evening for February. ๐ The skies are full of stars and it’s quite mild. It was nice having the windows open today and enjoying some fresh air before it gets cold again after the rain tomorrow. โ Then cold come Friday but bouncing back to normal by the weekend. After my walk I’ll sit out back until nine. ๐ Going to close my windows then bed time.
Tonight will be mostly clear ๐, with a low of 41 degrees at 6am. 23 degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical night around April 25th. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Too good to be true, won’t last. In 2022, we had light snow in the evening, which became mist by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 21 degrees. The record low of -20 occurred back in 1943.
Still enjoying the almost door to door service ๐of the express Voorheesville bus. ๐ Great on session days but also like tomorrow evening when it rains. โ That said, I do worry about not getting in as many steps ๐ฃ without walking to the Park and Ride but on nice days I still can. I was happy ๐ to see somebody on the bus today actually coming from Voorheesville as I know the bus I take isn’t as popular as earlier but I hope it doesn’t get canceled right away as long as there are other riders.
Tonight will have a Waining Crescent ๐ Moon with 22% illuminated. The Worm ๐ Moon is on Friday, March 3. The darkest hour is at 12:10 am, followed by dawn at 6:25 am, and sun starting to rise at 6:54 am in the east-southeast (107ยฐ) and last for 3 minutes and 1 seconds.
It was a quiet ๐คซ half of the day at work until a big project came in mid afternoon. Sometimes it’s so quiet and then so busy, ๐ฅ but when I have down time I try to use it well to analyze data, and learn new data science methods and sources of data. I’ve learned a lot of clever techniques to automate or at least speed up things at work. ๐จโโ๏ธ I might not be a PhD in data science but I’m learning some valuable techniques using R to mine a lot of value out of data.
Sunrise is one minute and 23 seconds earlier than yesterday. ๐ The golden hour ends at 7:33 am with sun in the east-southeast (114ยฐ). Tonight will have 13 hours and 20 minutes of darkness, a decrease of 2 minutes and 42 seconds over last night.
Today was such a nice day ๐ข but I was stuck in my office all day except when I went to the farmers market to get mushrooms ๐ and did a short walk ๐ถ on the Plaza. Got home and spent more time reading ๐ up about machine learning. ๐ค Too bad the weekend isn’t as good looking.
Tomorrow will have showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds ๐ ๐ ๐ฅ , with a high of 55 degrees at 1pm. 19 degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical day around April 6th. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. A year ago, we had light snow in the morning, which became mist by afternoon. The high last year was 34 degrees. The record high of 61 was set in 2006. 17.3 inches of snow fell back in 1958.โ
I decided that I can do my state taxes on paper ๐ to avoid paying to file. There is a few different open source things to compute my federal taxes, and then once they are done the state is easy to do. I like paper in the sense it’s easier to carefully review. I feel like the online services you spit too much of your information into a black box ๐ and it spits it back out and you don’t really know if it’s done right. I can compare to last year – forms are the same but the numbers ๐ข now are just slightly higher or maybe not if I reduced things down enough by retirement plan deductions.
In four weeks on March 15 the sun will be setting in the west (268ยฐ) at 7:02 pm (Daylight Savings Time),๐ which is one hour, 34 minutes and 29 seconds later then tonight. In 2021 on that day, we had cold, mostly sunny and temperatures between 30 and 11 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 45 and 26 degrees. The record high of 72 degrees was set back in 2019.
Looking ahead, March ๐จ is in two weeks on Wednesday, Ides of March โ is a month away, Tax Day ๐ฐ is in 2 months, Average High is 70 ๐ฎ is in 12 weeks, Pack Rat Day ๐ is in 13 weeks, Summer ๏ธโฑ๏ธ is in 18 weeks, Hottest Time of the Year ๐ is in 20 weeks, Dog Days of Summer ๐ป is in 20 weeks, Cow Appreciation Day ๐ is in 5 months, Average High Falls To 79 ๏ธDegrees โฑ๏ธ๏ธ๏ธ is in 28 weeks, More Night then Day ๐ is in 32 weeks, Last Sunset After 6:30 PM ๐ is in 33 weeks, Average High is 55 ๐ is in 37 weeks, November ๐ฅง is in 37 weeks, Day After Election Day ๐ is in 38 weeks, Saint Nicholas Day ๐ is in 42 weeks and Bill of Rights Day ๐ is in 10 months.
So I put in my request for the Albany County Voter file ๐ with the state board today.
So I put in my request for the Albany County Voter file ๐ with the state board today.
They have an online form makes it super easy, you just give them a name and address along with attesting it will be used exclusively for electoral purposes. ๐
I’m always a little nervous about signing any kind of public document ๐ like that relating to politics and I’m sure I run the risk of getting called into the big bosses office and asked what I’m doing requesting voter data. No I’m not planning on running for office or even immediately going to work as a consultant.
I noticed that Facebook is asking if I want to be friends with the State Election Democratic Commissioner. ๐ฅ Getting checked out I think. Probably wondering why I’m requesting when I haven’t filed petitions to run for office. Some people probably think I’m really conservative with my gadsden flag. But I’m more of Hillbilly Libertarian who has voted for plenty of Democrats and voluntered and worked on a ton of their campaigns. But maybe I’m paranoid but I do shit like that reviewing public records and social media all day as the Deputy Research director.
But assuming my request is approved, I have some big plans for the data. ๐ณ I want to use it to build a predictive model of actual election results based on the age, gender and party of who showed up to vote using machine learning. Sample 70% of the 316 County Election Districts and test the model on the remaining districts. ๐ Then take the model and impute to actual voters. ๐ It would be interesting to see if I could predict how individual voters voted in the past and then use it as a model for future elections. Like I’ve done for years with campaign plans only this time with better more detailed analysis.
If the results seem promising I will talk to some of my trusted friends in politics ๐ด – some who are actually in office – and see if they could benefit from the model I build. Local campaigns rarely have polls so it’s hard to target ๐ฏ or drive then out based on polling but this method is essentially free. Not looking to sell my model or services but if I get skills, references and resume things it’s a win.
Some people truly enjoy politics. I don’t beyond the numbers game and the occasional October door to door. ๐ช Or call voters and stuff envelopes to help out friends win their local race. โ I do what I do for work but I would never want to run or hold office myself. ๐ง๐ปโ๐ผ Usually when I get involved on anything public it comes back to bite me. ๐พ
With my growing knowledge of the R statistical programming language and data science, I have big dreams on how I could help local candidates use data science for better targeting and pulling out of voters. But first I need real data to learn on and build the models ๐ข in my head that could some day make for more effective campaigns. My goal in life is to own pigs and goats and have fires, not public office or appointed to anything.
Why I’m not that worried about the Ohio Hazmat Train Derailment ๐ค๏ธ๐ฅ
Why I’m not that worried about the Ohio Hazmat Train Derailment ๐ค๏ธ๐ฅ
For one it’s a very big country. I live 425 miles away from East Palatine Ohio, so the chances of any exposure to it are basically zero, unless maybe it drink milk or eat beef from cattle that grazed on dioxin laden grass. And even that risk is tiny compared to the world we live in literally saturated in an alphabet soup of toxic chemicals. Rather than fearing PFOAS, PCBs, dioxins, furans, and the rest of the alphabet soup we should stop cranking them out and their precursors from out factories.
It seems like despite public skeptism, the states and federal government did the right thing burning off the leaking toxic chemicals and containing the rest. The wind was from the northwest that day, so most of the smoke blew towards Pennsylvania State Game Land 275 and rural countryside. Some of the smoke might ended up reaching Beaver Falls, PA from looking at the radar but probably not much further. Probably not Pittsburgh, which is too far away. Smoke doesn’t carry that far, even in a big fire. Walk 20 miles in hilly south-western Pennsylvania coal country and see how truly far 20 miles is. Cars and their fast operating speed often distorts our perception of time and space.
Compared to the big western wildfires which can dump smoke into the upper atmosphere, this was a pretty isolated incident. And it was a one time incident, emissions relatively small compared to some of other large polluters that operate 24-7 in that general vicinity, including Homer City, Keystone and Conemaugh Coal Power Plants. For about 6 months a few years back, one of the steel furnaces outside of Pittsburgh operated with pollution controls down, because they couldn’t stop the plant mid-batch without forever destroying the plant.
The truth is while it sounds bad to burn off a tanker car full of vinyl chloride – houses and cars burn regularly in fires with many of the same chemicals. Roughly 350,000 houses burn per year in United States, 175,000 automobiles burn per year. And especially in rural Pennsylvania people burn trash and even vinyl siding in construction burn piles, and all kinds of nasty stuff as trash pickup is expensive and doesn’t service all rural areas and people are poor and like fire.
If we are worried about persistent organic pollutants, ultimately it comes down to industry not manufacturing the precursors and pollutants themselves. We need tougher regulations of chemicals and not just be pointing fingers at rednecks that burn stuff. Accidents happen, trains derail, cars crash and burn and house fires are not uncommon. If they were unthinkable every community wouldn’t have a fire department.
If we care about human and environmental health, we need to look at those massive coal plants and industrial factories that make the toxic chemicals and their precursors and not a one off, toxic spill which has largely been broken down over the vast rural countryside, hopefully not leaving too much of the partially incinerated chlorinated byproducts in it wake.
I’m not really concerned about this one spill but I do worry about the future of the climate and the environment overall with all the toxic pollution we are dumping in the air 24-7.











