Blue States Have More then a MAUP Problem 🗺️

How to address the Republican plan to redistrict Texas? Republicans have laid out to pack Democrats in as few of districts as possible, and crack the remaining Democratic strong holds, by splitting Democratic voters up into heavily Republican districts.

Democrats don’t help themselves by naturally being packed primarily in cities, and nowadays, inner suburbs and even outer more educated suburbs. Democrats generally are more concentrated in their location, while Republicans are spread out over the countryside and in the outer suburbs. Republican areas are physically much larger then Democratic areas, it allows them to naturally grab pieces of Democratic areas to dilute down the Democratic vote, and pack the remaining Democrats together.

It’s a problem that even the best map drawers, with the best data can’t necessarily overcome. Republicans by their location have an inherit advantage. It’s not fair but it’s how geography works. Drawing districts for partisan advantages can have an impact around the edges and make a difference in close elections, but it’s an advantage much overstated. You can put your finger on a scale but you can’t change the reading that much compared to the weight of a donkey or elephant.

Ultimately, while the redistricting in Texas and maybe Indiana may lead to Republicans picking up a seat or two – potentially giving them the majority for the remainder of Trump’s second term – it’s not necessarily that clear cut. Fingers on the scales and biasing elections make a difference but if it’s a wave year for Democrats in 2026 maybe it will not ultimately matter. Democrats may ultimately take back the house regardless of the GOP’s efforts to game the system.

I’m just skeptical about maps or election laws having much of an impact on elections or public policy except around the edges.