The U.S. Economy Is Insulated From High Oil Prices. Americans Aren’t. – The New York Times

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The U.S. Economy Is Insulated From High Oil Prices. Americans Aren’t. – The New York Times

The jump in oil prices to over $100 a barrel in recent weeks will push nearly every major economic variable in the wrong direction. Inflation will be faster. Growth will be slower. Unemployment will most likely be higher. If the war were to last longer than expected, or energy prices were to go higher — as they have in recent days — the damage would grow.

Still, unless the situation takes a significant turn for the worse, the impact will most likely be modest, measured in tenths of a percentage point of economic growth. Federal Reserve policymakers, at their first meeting since the war began, made only small adjustments to their economic forecasts for the year and left interest rates unchanged.

Iran Believes It’s Winning—and Wants a Steep Price to End the War – WSJ

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Iran Believes It’s Winning—and Wants a Steep Price to End the War – WSJ

While the Iranian leadership currently possesses significant leverage for a deal with the U.S. if it chose to negotiate, it also holds a record of sticking to unrealistically rigid policies since the early days of the Islamic Republic, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and author of a book on U.S.-Iranian relations. Back during the Iran-Iraq war, Iran liberated every inch of its territory by 1982—but only agreed to a cease-fire with Saddam Hussein’s regime in 1988, after massive destruction and hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides, he noted.

From Four-Day Weeks to AC Bans, the World Is Scrambling to Save Energy – WSJ

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From Four-Day Weeks to AC Bans, the World Is Scrambling to Save Energy – WSJ

Governments around the world are pressuring consumers to reduce energy use in one of the broadest efforts to alter fuel-consumption habits since the 1970s, as the Iran war drives oil-and-gas prices sharply higher.

The changes are being rolled out as a mix of voluntary acts, soft restrictions and incentives to cut demand. But the policies are multiplying and growing more constraining as the crisis continues.

The war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, which normally caters to about 20% of global oil consumption, causing the biggest supply shock in the history of the oil market, according to the International Energy Agency.