The Weather Is Getting Wilder, and Some See a Dire Signal in the Data – The New York Times

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The Weather Is Getting Wilder, and Some See a Dire Signal in the Data – The New York Times

Scientists who study global warming are currently wrestling with a question that, while seemingly technical, is profoundly consequential: Is climate change accelerating?

The debate spilled into the open this month, after new research found that the rate of global warming has nearly doubled over the last decade. The findings set scientific circles buzzing, and not all researchers agree with the conclusion.

But while the debate about accelerating global warming remains unsettled, a growing number of scientists do agree on another troubling development: The effects of climate change are intensifying in ways that have surprised even experts.

Where Oil and Gas Sites Have Been Attacked During Iran War – The New York Times

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Where Oil and Gas Sites Have Been Attacked During Iran War – The New York Times

At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began bombarding Iran, a New York Times analysis found. Some have been struck by drones. Several have been hit more than once.

As the attacks escalate, both sides increasingly view energy as a potent target — one that is capable of inflicting severe economic pain. Iran depends on oil and natural gas to keep the lights on and its government running, while the United States wants to prevent prices from soaring further and damaging the underpinnings of the global order.

The U.S. Economy Is Insulated From High Oil Prices. Americans Aren’t. – The New York Times

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The U.S. Economy Is Insulated From High Oil Prices. Americans Aren’t. – The New York Times

The jump in oil prices to over $100 a barrel in recent weeks will push nearly every major economic variable in the wrong direction. Inflation will be faster. Growth will be slower. Unemployment will most likely be higher. If the war were to last longer than expected, or energy prices were to go higher — as they have in recent days — the damage would grow.

Still, unless the situation takes a significant turn for the worse, the impact will most likely be modest, measured in tenths of a percentage point of economic growth. Federal Reserve policymakers, at their first meeting since the war began, made only small adjustments to their economic forecasts for the year and left interest rates unchanged.

Iran Believes It’s Winning—and Wants a Steep Price to End the War – WSJ

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Iran Believes It’s Winning—and Wants a Steep Price to End the War – WSJ

While the Iranian leadership currently possesses significant leverage for a deal with the U.S. if it chose to negotiate, it also holds a record of sticking to unrealistically rigid policies since the early days of the Islamic Republic, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and author of a book on U.S.-Iranian relations. Back during the Iran-Iraq war, Iran liberated every inch of its territory by 1982—but only agreed to a cease-fire with Saddam Hussein’s regime in 1988, after massive destruction and hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides, he noted.