Another Good Day on the Markets

The S&P 500 has risen to a new all-time intraday record high, driven by a stronger-than-expected April jobs report and optimism regarding potential peace developments in the Middle East.

The U.S. labor market showed unexpected resilience today, as Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data revealed the addition of 115,000 jobs in April. This figure doubled economist expectations of roughly 55,000 to 65,000, even as the economy navigates the severe energy shocks and geopolitical instability caused by the 2026 Iran war.

Jobs Report Highlights

• Surprise Growth: While hiring slowed from March’s revised 185,000, April’s gains suggest the “hiring recession” of 2025 may be ending.
• Unemployment: The national unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.
• Sector Gains: Hiring was led by healthcare (+37,000), transportation and warehousing (+30,000), and retail (+22,000).
• Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings grew by 3.6% over the past year. However, with inflation expected to reach 4% due to energy costs, these gains are largely being offset.

Storm clouds overhead … Gas prices and the Iran War

The robust hiring comes despite a massive spike in energy costs. Since the war with Iran began in late February, U.S. gas prices have surged by over 50%.

• At the Pump: The national average for gasoline hit $4.55 per gallon this week, up 25 cents in the last week alone.
• Energy Crisis: Crude oil remains high, priced near $104 per barrel, driven by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint, normally responsible for 20% of global oil, has seen commercial traffic collapse from 138 daily transits to just a handful.
• Economic Squeeze: Lower-income households are being hit hardest, now spending roughly 4.2% of their income on gas.

… and the global situation remains uncertain.

The broader geopolitical landscape remains volatile, though there are signs of a tactical pause in hostilities.

• Ceasefire Efforts: President Trump recently paused Project Freedom—the U.S. military operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz—citing “great progress” toward a final agreement with Iran.
• Ongoing Tensions: Despite the pause, Iran has reportedly launched missile and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the last 48 hours, while Israel has resumed airstrikes in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah.
• Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, focusing on these mounting inflation risks rather than cutting rates to spur growth.