Buckle up because El NiΓ±o is almost here, and it’s going to get hot

Buckle up because El NiΓ±o is almost here, and it’s going to get hot

The next five years are almost guaranteed to be sweltering, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned today. Climate change has already raised baseline temperatures for the planet. Now, a weather pattern known as El Ni?o is going to make things even hotter when it develops later this year.

That one-two punch from El Ni?o and climate change is expected to “push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a press release today. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”

The Myth of Moderation

β€œIt’s okay to smoke an occasional cigarette, especially if it’s a low-tar filtered cigarette, at an occasional social event.” ~ Not Said by the Surgeon General

There is this strong belief in American culture that success is about moderation, holding back and depriving one’s self. If one can only abstain from consuming or doing too much of a bad activity, they will be okay. It’s about willpower, holding your nose against the temptation. It is said, only the weak fall for bad habits. What bullcrap! Maybe the exception to this is with cigarettes and narcotics, they’re addictive, so willpower doesn’t apply, or so we are told.

The thing is that’s bullshit. Nobody has much willpower, and any willpower is quickly broken down by the passage of time. What people have is habits β€” automatic, largely thoughtless routines. Things people do, because they always do it that way. Defaults and automation matter far more then any willpower. It might take a conscience effort to get a program started in one’s life, but once it’s going, success is about automation not willpower.

If you don’t want temptation don’t include bad things at all in your life. You will give in to temptation. It’s a fact.  But there is no temptation to overdo it if you don’t participate in the activity at all. Maybe that cigarette won’t kill you, but like so many bad habits, one can get you started on a bad habit for life. It’s not about moderation, but abstention and automatic habits.

New York lost jobs in April, unemployment rate ticks down

New York lost jobs in April, unemployment rate ticks down

New York state's economy lost more than 25,000 jobs in the private sector in April, the state Department of Labor reported on Thursday.

Still, the unemployment rate declined slightly from March to April from 4.1% to 4%, state officials said, as the number of unemployed people declined from rom 391,600 in March to 385,000 in April.

Job growth in the country overall is outpacing New York, which has struggled to regain the jobs last more than three years ago in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Shift it down into overdrive βš™

It’s now just coasting to the weekend, or so I tell myself. The hill has been climbed, now it’s just coasting to five o’clock. And next weekend is Memorial Day Weekend, which the black flies want you to know is a three day weekend.

Good morning! Yeah, it’s Friday! Mostly sunny and 48 degrees β˜€ in Delmar for the morning walk. There is a south breeze at 11 mph. πŸƒ.

I hear that summer is coming πŸ– though lately there has been very little evidence of that lately. That said, things may get warmer for the Memorial Day Weekend though not by much. When summer finally arrives though I’m betting it will get hot.

I was thinking πŸ’­ about eggs this morning πŸ₯š as I had too many carbs yesterday but I think with time limitations πŸ₯£ and because I want eggs tomorrow I’m going to reheat the remaining barley and quinoa I have cooked in the refrigerator and serve with blackberries and cherries πŸ’ this morning. πŸ₯£ May add a little honey 🍯 just because otherwise the quiona is too bitter. Then some carrots πŸ₯•. Tomorrow eggs 🍳 I’m thinking. I’ll make sure to limit carbs at lunch and dinner. Maybe I’ll crack open that other can of mackerel 🐠 or tuna with dinner and serve with kale to boost my omega 3 levels and vitamin absorption. Also need to use up more of the peppers πŸ«‘πŸŒΆοΈ in the refrigerator they’re getting dried out a bit. I do make frozen spinach and especially kale πŸ₯— too big of a portion of my diet but it’s easy and cheap source of healthy fiber though I do need to mix it up more. Overdoing kale is better than overdosing on sugars and fats I tell myself.

Today will be mostly sunny 🌞, with a high of 72 degrees at 4pm. Typical for today. Maximum dew point of 48 at 12pm. South wind 11 to 17 mph. A year ago, we had cloudy skies in the morning, which became light rain by afternoon. The high last year was 63 degrees. The record high of 91 was set in 1989. There was a dusting of snow in 1976.❄

Yesterday was busy and I was tired 😴 by the end of the day but I still got 9.2 miles in by the end of the day. Caught the express bus 🚍 both ways, made up and eat too much brown rice 🍚 and red lentils, as its super dense but tried to make up for it by having lots of kale, tomato πŸ… and onions with the small slice of chicken πŸ” breast I had for dinner. I’ll cut back further on the carbs today. It’s about averages.

Solar noon 🌞 is at 12:53 pm with sun having an altitude of 67.1Β° from the due south horizon (-3.7Β° vs. 6/21). A six foot person will cast a 2.5 foot shadow today compared to 2.2 feet on the first day of summer. The golden hour πŸ… starts at 7:34 pm with the sun in the west-northwest (292Β°). πŸ“Έ The sunset is in the west-northwest (298Β°) with the sun dropping below the horizon at 8:15 pm after setting for 3 minutes and 17 seconds with dusk around 8:47 pm, which is one minute and one second later than yesterday. πŸŒ‡

The best time to look at the stars is after 9:29 pm. At sunset, look for partly clear skies πŸŒ„ and temperatures around 65 degrees. There will be a south breeze at 14 mph. Today will have 14 hours and 48 minutes of daytime, an increase of one minute and 57 seconds over yesterday.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy πŸŒ₯, with a low of 51 degrees at 2am. One degree above normal, which is similar to a typical night around May 24th. Maximum dew point of 50 at 6am. South wind 11 to 14 mph. In 2022, we had mostly clear skies. It got down to 46 degrees. The record low of 29 occurred back in 2002.

I would like to walk 🚢 ten miles today but it’s going to be difficult as I have to probably do work this evening and pick up the Save the Pine Bush display from Lynne Jackson in the city after work. πŸ—’ Those committee agendas keep coming later and later into the weekend. 🀯 It’s fine, I need the comp time for summer but still it will lead to a very busy evening.

Tomorrow will have showers likely, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy 🌦, with a high of 66 degrees at 12pm. Seven degrees below normal, which is similar to a typical day around May 1st. Maximum dew point of 57 at 2pm. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Not the nicest day possible for the Lupine Festival πŸ¦‹ but not a total washout. A year ago, we had cloudy skies in the morning, which became light rain by afternoon. The high last year was 79 degrees. The record high of 91 was set in 1962.

Looking ahead to Sunday, mostly sunny, β˜€ with a high near 73. Northwest wind around 11 mph. Maximum dew point of 50 at 8am. Typical average high for the weekend is 73 degrees. That should be a nicer day. Looking at minimum at Bennett Hill before seeing the folks, might also do an early morning hike to Five Rivers 🐦 – and I mean early like 5 AM – and maybe an evening hike up Blodgett Hill then get groceries for the week at Wally World.πŸ›’

I wasn’t going to head out of town for the holiday weekend β›Ί but with the warming trend and potentially sunny hot weather, I could be persuaded elsewise. πŸ€·β€β™‚οΈ Hammock Camping is more likely but I could consider the Spectulator area especially if I have to spend part of the week remote working. πŸ’» That said I don’t like the black flies and summer isn’t that far away. I’d still almost prefer though to wait for the following week when work is less and the woods is quieter. 🌲🌲But sometimes plans change.

I’m back to thinking πŸ’­ about the Finger Lakes National Forest for summer vacation πŸŠβ€β™‚οΈ mostly because I’m thinking of all the trails and flat land up on the hump between the lakes for bicycle 🚲 riding. Plus lots of opportunities to fish 🎣 and the ease of setting up camp β›Ί for the week and nearby groceries at Watkins Glen. 🍏 It was fun paddling Seneca Lake on calmer days. πŸ›Ά And doing the Black River Valley to camp and hunt come the autumn rather than West Virginia.

One month πŸ“… from now the Average High is 80 when the sun will be setting at 8:37 pm with dusk at 9:11 pm. Basically almost summer at that point, I should spend it at the House Pond campsite. β›Ί

Cloudy Skies Over Cedar River Flow