Into the Notch
Just past Ferris Hill Road, the rail trail is always swampy as it's near the headwaters of the East Branch Delaware River.
Taken on Saturday September 11, 2021 at Perkins Clearing and Speculator Tree Farm Conservation Easement Lands.Why ads? π€ / Privacy Policy π³
Just past Ferris Hill Road, the rail trail is always swampy as it's near the headwaters of the East Branch Delaware River.
Taken on Saturday September 11, 2021 at Perkins Clearing and Speculator Tree Farm Conservation Easement Lands.9/13/21 by Robert Rydell, Katy Milkman, Don Moore
Web player: https://podcastaddict.com/episode/128390819
Episode: https://chtbl.com/track/224G4/https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/cdn.simplecast.com/audio/46d9ff78-39b5-4502-a5e9-0df217e1b3a7/episodes/82009a27-fc23-41e6-91e3-e8d3cd180cdf/audio/25686afd-a82a-4a05-8a1a-48853ecc55fe/default_tc.mp3
When young children imagine their future lives, theyβre often very optimistic. Theyβll say things like βIβm going to be an astronaut!β or βWhen I grow up, I want to be a movie star!β These outcomes are, of course, quite rare. Most children will grow into slightly less exotic careers as adults. But even as adults, we tend toward personal optimism. We assume that we will outlive the average person, that we will remain in better health than the average person, and that our children will be above average in school or in sports. Of course, we canβt all be above average. In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at the mistakes we make when we assume weβre less susceptible to failure or negative outcomes than are other people. Worldβs Fairs are large scale events requiring an immense amount of planning and organization. And while there have been many memorable and successful fairs, there have also been many expensive failures. Robert Rydell tells the story of the 1926 Sesquicentennial International Exposition in Philadelphia. Organizers were certain that they could mount a spectacular event, one that would transform their city and burnish its reputation around the world. But international events, poor weather, local politics, and the death of one of the key planners would conspire to make this a fair to remember, for all the wrong reasons. Robert Rydell is a professor of American Studies at Montana State University and the author of All the Worldβs a Fair: Visions of Empire at American International Expositions, 1876-1916. Next, Don Moore joins Katy to discuss the ways in which overconfidence, overplacement, and overprecision can cloud your judgement, even though it may make you feel better about yourself and your abilities. Don Moore is the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication at the UC Berkeley Haas School of Business and serves as Associate Dean for Academic Affairs. He is also the author of the book Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely. Finally, Katy offers advice on using base rates to help offset over-optimism when it comes to planning events, starting a business, getting married, or renovating your home.
Today’s sunrise was at 6:34 am. The next time the sun will rise earlier then today π is in 166 days on Sunday, February 27, 2022.
The average high for today is 75 degrees. π‘ The next time it will be on average warmer then today is in 260 days on Wednesday, June 1, 2022 when the average temperature will be 76 degrees.
The highest point for the sun today will be 50.7° from the horizon at 12:52 pm. π The next time the sun will be higher in the sky mid-day is in 196 days on Tuesday, March 29.
Today has 12 hours and 21 minutes of daylight. β³ The next time the day will be longer then today is in 195 days on Monday, March 28.
Today’s sunset will be at 7:06 pm. The next time the sun will set later then today π is in 187 days on Sunday, March 20, 2022.
The average low for today is 53 degrees. π‘ The next night it will be on average warmer then tonight is in 261 days on Thursday, June 2, 2022 when the average temperature will be 54 degrees.
Kind of an unstable weather pattern thought, seems like you might not want to be caught without your umbrella β. Now that I have all my extra blue jeans π I wonder how much I will be wearing them.
Continuing to watch the weekend forecast β and if it remains good, I seriously will consider getting out of town as winter isab coming and things remain slow in the office.
Today. Feels like … September 11th. |
Partly sunny.
Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
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76 degrees | 64 max dew point | 7:06 sunset |
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Tonight. Muggy ! |
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy.
South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
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67 degrees | 66 max dew point | 6:35 sunrise |
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Wednesday. Feels like … August 14th. |
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 5pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Partly sunny.
South wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
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82 degrees | 69 max dew point | 7:05 sunset |
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Wednesday Night. Feels like … August 20th. |
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Low around 60. West wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
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60 degrees | 6:36 sunrise |
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Thursday. Feels like … September 17th. |
A slight chance of showers before 8am, then a chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy.
North wind around 6 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
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74 degrees | 63 max dew point | 7:03 sunset |
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Thursday Night. Feels like … July 15th. |
A chance of showers, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy.
Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
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63 degrees | 64 max dew point | 6:37 sunrise |
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Friday. Feels like … September 11th. |
Scattered showers, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy.
Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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76 degrees | 67 max dew point | 7:01 sunset |
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Friday Night. Muggy ! |
Scattered showers, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy.
Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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64 degrees | 67 max dew point | 6:38 sunrise |
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Saturday. Feels like … August 28th. |
Scattered showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny.
Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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80 degrees | 68 max dew point | 6:59 sunset |
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Saturday Night. Feels like … July 31st. |
Scattered showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy.
Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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62 degrees | 66 max dew point | 6:39 sunrise |
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Sunday. Feels like … August 28th. |
Mostly sunny.
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80 degrees | 65 max dew point | 6:58 sunset |
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Sunday Night. Feels like … August 13th. |
Mostly clear.
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61 degrees | 64 max dew point | 6:41 sunrise |
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Monday. Feels like … August 22nd. |
Mostly sunny.
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81 degrees | 65 max dew point | 6:56 sunset |
I think it takes white trash to a new level. I’ve been known to buy abs wear Wrangler shirts and jeans from Wally World but I can’t imagine the purpose of such a dress – they look terrible and aren’t very good if you are milking a cow, shoveling manure, riding an ATV or anything else a country gal would be doing. Except maybe if you are emulating Ed Koch and drive a big jacked up truck and kind of like the Chinese food in Canastota.
Partly cloudy and 54 degrees in Delmar, NY. β Calm wind. The dew point is 52 degrees.
Nice morning today, β cool but sunny. Very autumn like. π Running π a bit late on my morning walk but either I’ll catch the earlier bus π or not downtown. This hour is a bit better for air quality as there are fewer cars idling around the high school πΈ. I’ll have to take a quick shower πΏ.
I went to the store after work yesterday πͺ got coffee β and a few other needed supplies. π₯£ I washed my truck. π» I recommend avoiding US 9W and Glenmont Road, especially at night because there are long delays at least at night.
As I was mentioning last night π₯, I feel like I am running up a bit against a wall trying to figure out how to produce those really nice charts and graphs π in Python and R, but I know it’s powerful technology if I can master it.
Today I need to make some calls about my truck π» or maybe at lunch time catch a bus up to the off road shop to see about ordering the tires and talk to them about the alignment. If I want to do vacation in four weeks it needs to get done, especially ordering the tires. β« I’m not sure I want to be driving 70 mph in rural Pennsylvania with dry rotted tires plus I think by the time I get the new tires put on I’ll be down to the wear bands on all four. Winter is coming, traction isn’t optional. β