Daisies
The Ledge
Lows Ledge is a popular place. But not tonight, mid-week hike after work.
Taken on Wednesday June 24, 2020 at Albany, NY.Will your PC runs Winders 11 ? 💻
Will your PC runs Winders 11 ? 💻
Mine never will as I run Linux and I can’t imagine I would ever upgrade or do much in Windows, as my impression of that operating system is it’s slow, clunky, and makes you sit and wait when you need to apply security patches. It can’t do such things in the background like Linux can.
Knox 1960
A 3D rendering of what Knox looked like in 1960 from an aerial photo.
Often probability predictions are surprising
Often probability predictions are surprising. In the case of the coin-tossing experiment described in the puzzle, Dr. Theodore P. Hill of the Georgia Institute of Technology wrote in American Scientist, a “quite involved calculation” revealed a surprising probability. It showed, he said, that the overwhelming odds are that…
…in a series of 200 tosses, either heads or tails will come up six or more times in a row.Most fakers don’t know this and avoid guessing long runs of heads or tails, which they mistakenly assume to be improbable. At just a glance, Dr. Hill can see whether or not a student’s 200 coin-toss results contain a run of six heads or tails. If they don’t, the student is branded a fake.
Read more on http://niquette.com/puzzles/randoms.htm
Pacific Northwest bakes under once-in-a-millennium heat dome – CBS News
The heat wave baking the U.S. Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, Canada, is of an intensity never recorded by modern humans. By one measure it is more rare than a once in a 1,000 year event — which means that if you could live in this particular spot for 1,000 years, you'd likely only experience a heat dome like this once, if ever.
This article shows that the reporters at CBS News don't understand how probability works.
A millennium heat wave, has only a 63.2% chance of happening in 1,000 years. It also has a 1 in 1,000 chance of happening any specific year, or 0.1% probability in any specific year. That doesn't mean it's impossible to happen any one year, or that two years consecutively of millennium heat waves doesn't mean the probability is wrong.
People often think when you flip a coin that each time you should get a head then a tail then a head, but if that rarely that happens. 50% probability only happens after many coin flips, possibly hundreds. The best way to show somebody isn't faking a coin toss is to look for long runs of heads or tails, because that's most common to happen with probability.
June 28, 2021 Afternoon
A hot and humid afternoon. Partly sunny 🌞 around 93 degrees in Albany, NY. There is a south breeze at 7 mph. 🍃. The dew point is 70 degrees. The heat index is 99. The muggy weather ends Saturday around 3 am. 😓 Yes, it’s a hot day.
For the first time since I’ve been working downtown, I went for a couple laps around the Empire State Plaza Concourse. ❄️ Parts of concourse are frigid today, while other parts are quite warm. It was nice to get at least a mile in walking laps in the plaza, because it was too hot and I was too drowsy to go for my morning walk before work, after taking a sleeping pill last night 💊 so I could sleep well. Kind of nice things are getting back to normal.
Tonight though with the heat, I am not sure what the plans are. 📚 It might be nice to go down to the library, or I could go to the park if the heat breaks a bit by seven o’clock, although I don’t really have any good books to read — maybe I should go to the library. No masks are required in the library, and the desks are back and things are mostly back to normal.
