Often probability predictions are surprising
Often probability predictions are surprising. In the case of the coin-tossing experiment described in the puzzle, Dr. Theodore P. Hill of the Georgia Institute of Technology wrote in American Scientist, a “quite involved calculation” revealed a surprising probability. It showed, he said, that the overwhelming odds are that…
…in a series of 200 tosses, either heads or tails will come up six or more times in a row.Most fakers don’t know this and avoid guessing long runs of heads or tails, which they mistakenly assume to be improbable. At just a glance, Dr. Hill can see whether or not a student’s 200 coin-toss results contain a run of six heads or tails. If they don’t, the student is branded a fake.