October 9, 2016 Afternoon

|

Good afternoon! Partly cloudy and 56 degrees at Chimney Bluffs State Park. There is a north-northwest breeze at 13 mph. The dew point is 44 degrees. 30 days until you get to vote for Hillary or Trump, and 31 days until we know most likely who will be victimizing our country for the next four years. We are now 11 weeks out from Christmas too — it will be here before you know it. Christmas falls on Sunday, so if you work week days, you’ll have off Christmas Eve, and possibly the Monday after Christmas.

This afternoon will be mostly sunny, with near constant temperatures, a high of 57 degrees at 3pm. Six degrees below normal. Maximum dew point of 44 at 12pm. Northwest wind around 14 mph. The record high of 83 was set in 1949. The sun will set at 6:33 pm with dusk around 7:01 pm, which is 1 minutes and 42 seconds earlier than yesterday. Today will have 11 hours and 17 minutes of daylight, a decrease of 2 minutes and 53 seconds over yesterday.

Earlier this morning, i drove up to Chimney Bluff State Park. I always wanted to go up there, and I decided to go up there because it was sunny. It started as a trip up to Lake Ontario, and somehow I ended up up at Chimey Bluffs. I’ve always wanted to go there, and it was my chance to do it today. It was a lot longer of a drive then I expected, but it was a very nice fall drive, mostly through wooded and swampy areas on mostly flat and straight roads. A bit more traffic though then I would have liked on NY 3 and NY 104.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low of 48 degrees at 3am. Six degrees above normal. North wind 16 to 18 mph. The record low of 25 occurred back in 1980.

Next Sunday is the Hunter’s Moon when the sun will be setting at 6:21 pm with dusk at 6:50 pm. Lots of moon light for finding those ‘yotes, or in the Northern Zone, heading out in the field early in search of deer. Bright a flashlight though, so you don’t get shot. The average high temperature is 60 degrees, with a record high of 88 in 1947.

Three weeks out from National Candy Corn Day. I like candy corn. I know a lot of people aren’t such big fans of it. Well too bad.

Today in 1967, a day after being captured, Marxist revolutionary Ernesto “Che” Guevara is executed for attempting to incite a revolution in Bolivia. Today in college dorm rooms across our country his image is featured on flags and posters.

Back in 1812, in a naval engagement on Lake Erie, American forces capture two British ships: HMS Detroit and HMS Caledonia at Fort Erie, near where the Niagara River comes together with Lake Ontario.

Monetary Stimulus

|

It’s funny how none of the presidential candidates want to talk about their plans to unwind the monetary stimulus or the long-term problems caused by negative or extremely low fed rates.

Much like engaging the choke on an engine to get more fuel to a cold engine, monetary stimulus is good for getting the economy going during the recession by putting more money into the economy. But if hold the choke in on an engine, while the engine warms, eventually the fuel mixture becomes too rich, and your engine will flood and stall. In economic terms, if you hold fed rates too low for too long, you will encourage risky speculation in the stock market, as people seek returns, and eventually cause inflation by making credit too easy and cheap to get.

Unfortunately, like a malfunctioning carburetor, as soon as the fed starts to reduce the monetary stimulus, the economy shows signs of weakness. It seems like the economy is running well on full choke right now, but as soon as you cut the choke, it threatens to stall. But you can’t run an engine on full choke forever — you are loosing a lot of long-term economic strength by forcing investors to make risky bets and pushing us towards further inflation. Like an engine that is choked, you are losing a lot of economic strength that would exist could the economy succeed without the choke on.

Fixing an engine with a malfunctioning carburetor is relatively simple. You probably have a plugged fuel line or poor quality fuel. Maybe the air and fuel mixture is off on the carburetor, and the engine is running too lean. The federal reserve can adjust the choke on the economy by tinkering with fed rates, but it can’t fix bigger structural problems in the economy.

Some of the economic change may be do to an economy whose population has gotten older, and doesn’t consume as many resources as it once did. The price of energy is another concern — while oil prices are low now, we know that they will not likely remain this low going forward. The low price of energy is leading to under-investment of energy resources needed in the future. Machines and automation are eliminating a lot of tasks. The incredible weight of expensive education systems and healthcare system (“maximum healthcare at all costs for all”) is another drag.

October 8, 2016 Morning

|

Good morning! Happy Saturday. One month out from Election Day and six weeks until Regular Season in the Southern Zone. Fairly heavy rains with the mercury around 61 degrees in North Syracuse. There is a south breeze at 7 mph. Rain will pick up midday, then die down in the afternoon with clearing but much cooler temperatures on Sunday and Columbus Day. I think the high for Columbus Day in North Syracuse will be only about 57 degrees, and much cooler in the mountains.

Today will have showers, mainly before 1pm. High near 65 degrees at 1pm. Two degrees above normal. Maximum dew point of 59 at 1pm. South wind 7 to 9 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Two degrees above normal. Maximum dew point of 59 at 1pm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. The record high of 79 was set in 2011.

The sun will set at 6:31 pm with dusk around 7:00 pm, which is 1 minutes and 43 seconds earlier than yesterday. Today will have 11 hours and 20 minutes of daylight, a decrease of 2 minutes and 54 seconds over yesterday.

Tonight will have a chance of showers, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of 49 degrees at 6am. Six degrees above normal. West wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. The record low of 27 occurred back in 2001.

On this day in 1969, the opening rally of the Days of Rage occurs, organized by the Weather Underground in Chicago. Designed to be an anti-war rally, a combination of an aggressive police presence and high turn-out lead the rally to turn violent.

There are 2 weeks until Make a Difference Day and also First Day of Regular Season in the Northern Zone when the sun will be setting at 6:09 pm with dusk at 6:38 pm — at least in North Syracuse. The average high temperature is 57 degrees, with a record high of 86 in 1979.

October 7, 2016 Night

|

Good evening! Partly cloudy and 63 degrees in Cicero, NY. There is a south-southeast breeze at 7 mph. The dew point is 53 degrees. A pretty pleasant evening, although we have rain coming in an a few hours and cooler, more seasonable weather for next week.

Tonight will have a chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of 58 degrees at 6am. 16 degrees above normal. Maximum dew point of 54 at 5am. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. The record low of 21 occurred back in 1964. Moon tonight with 44% illuminated. The moon will set around 1:27 am. The First Quarter Moon is on Sunday at 4:33 am with partly cloudy expected. The Full “Hunter” Moon is on Sunday, October 16th at 4:23 am.

Tomorrow will have showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high of 67 degrees at 2pm. Four degrees above normal. Maximum dew point of 56 at 11am. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. The record high of 79 was set in 2011. The sun will rise at 7:10 am with the first light at 6:41 am, which is 1 minutes and 10 seconds later then yesterday.

Looking ahead, National Chocolate Day is in 3 weeks, Veterans Day is in 5 weeks and Buy Nothing Day / Black Friday is in 7 weeks.

October 7, 2016 7 PM Update

|

The next week is expected to be fairly mild but not excessively hot.

Exceptional temperatures:
Tonight will be very mild. 58 degrees. 42 normal. 21 record (1964). Partly Cloudy then Chance of Showers.
Saturday night will be warm. 48 degrees. 42 normal. 27 record (2001). Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance of Showers.
Tuesday will be warm. 68 degrees. 62 normal. 86 record (1943). Mostly Sunny.
Wednesday will be warm. 69 degrees. 61 normal. 85 record (1964). Mostly Sunny.
Wednesday night will be warm. 47 degrees. 40 normal. 24 record (1981). Mostly Cloudy.

Saturday is our best chance for seeing rain. Not a big wash out but rain on Saturday morning is likely with clearing later on.

Rain and thunderstorms expected:
Saturday – Slight chance of rain from 2 am to 3 am. Chance of rain from 3 am to 5 am. Rain from 5 am to 1 pm. Chance of rain from 1 pm to 4 pm. Slight chance of rain from 4 pm to 6 pm. 0.35 inches.
Sunday – Slight chance of rain from 1 am to 2 pm.
Wednesday – Slight chance of rain from 8 pm to midnight.
Thursday – Slight chance of rain from midnight to 8 am.

Most of the coming week should be quite sunny, except for a cloudy period on Saturday when the rain comes through.

Cloudy periods:
Saturday – Mostly cloudy from 1 am to 4 am. Cloudy from 4 am to 4 pm. Mostly cloudy from 4 pm to 7 pm.