How the Average High is Sort of A Lie
The average high temperature reported on the news is actually a lie. 🌡
They don’t usually report the average high but the climate normal high, which is not the average of recorded high temperatures over the past thirty years but a smoothed data set that has various adjustments to account for missing data and errors in measurements, along with suppressing other statistical anomalies like record breaking heat or cold on any one particular day.
| Difference Between Climate Adjusted Average High and Actual Average High (March 1991-2020) | |||
| When they report on news the average high, it’s not what you think it is. | |||
| Day | Climate Normal High 1991-2020 | Highs Averaged Together 1991-2020 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40.0 | 39.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 40.0 | 39.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 41.0 | 38.0 | 3.0 |
| 4 | 41.0 | 37.5 | 3.5 |
| 5 | 41.0 | 38.6 | 2.4 |
| 6 | 42.0 | 39.8 | 2.2 |
| 7 | 42.0 | 40.8 | 1.2 |
| 8 | 42.0 | 43.8 | −1.8 |
| 9 | 43.0 | 42.8 | 0.2 |
| 10 | 43.0 | 43.8 | −0.8 |
| 11 | 43.0 | 42.3 | 0.7 |
| 12 | 44.0 | 41.6 | 2.4 |
| 13 | 44.0 | 41.9 | 2.1 |
| 14 | 44.0 | 43.6 | 0.4 |
| 15 | 45.0 | 45.6 | −0.6 |
| 16 | 45.0 | 44.0 | 1.0 |
| 17 | 45.0 | 44.8 | 0.2 |
| 18 | 46.0 | 43.5 | 2.5 |
| 19 | 46.0 | 44.7 | 1.3 |
| 20 | 47.0 | 45.8 | 1.2 |
| 21 | 47.0 | 45.3 | 1.7 |
| 22 | 48.0 | 43.5 | 4.5 |
| 23 | 48.0 | 42.9 | 5.1 |
| 24 | 48.0 | 47.1 | 0.9 |
| 25 | 49.0 | 48.8 | 0.2 |
| 26 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 0.0 |
| 27 | 50.0 | 51.3 | −1.3 |
| 28 | 50.0 | 51.6 | −1.6 |
| 29 | 51.0 | 52.4 | −1.4 |
| 30 | 51.0 | 52.2 | −1.2 |
| 31 | 52.0 | 53.3 | −1.3 |
| Andy Arthur, 3/6/23. Data Source: National Weather Service, Albany. |
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NOAA Explains here: https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/understanding-climate-normals
So the average high is kind of like calling twinkies a food.