Kathy Houchul’s Upstate Problem

New York State rarely elects governors from Upstate, especially not Western NY. The last elected Upstate Governor was either George Pataki or Franklin Roosevelt, depending on what you consider to be Upstate and both lived in the Metropolitan-area, just a short ride on the Metro North to New York City.

There is no law prohibiting Governor’s from hailing from Upstate but the population is heavily downstate, with nearly 7 in ten 10 New Yorkers residing in the metro area, which George Pataki and Roosevelt, along with all other governors in the past century hail from.

Western New York is far from New York City. Not just distance wise but culturally too. It’s becoming more and more Republican too, especially the rural areas. Kathy Houchul doesn’t hail from Buffalo or Niagara Falls, she was a town council member in Hamburg, and she went on to represent a fairly conservative suburban district in Congress with the endorsement of the NRA.

With political polarization these days I doubt many Western NYers will end up crossing party lines to vote for Houchul just because she is a local favorite. She will probably do as well as Cuomo did in Western NY but but not much better. But can she motivate people in New York City to vote for her in the numbers she needs? Or will many democrats just sit this one out, at best indifferent to that sort of conservative Upstater on the top of the ballot? After all, the New York State elections will be largely decided in the suburbs as that is where the most swing voters live.

New York City suburbs are getting bluer although recent off year elections see that trend slowing. Crime is up in the suburbs, especially property crime and nobody wants their hard earned property stolen or damaged. Hometown advantage and decades of knowledge of suburban politics for Lee Zeldin may help him better connect with voters fed up with incumbents in these inflationary times with high gas prices.