Weather

El Nino is officially underway. Here’s what that means for the weather

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El Nino is officially underway. Here’s what that means for the weather

After months of anticipation, El Ni?o has officially developed and will have a heavy hand in shaping the weather patterns around the world into 2024.

On Thursday morning, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced that "El Ni?o conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere for the winter of 2023-24."

El Ni?o is a regular climate phenomenon in the eastern Pacific Ocean when water temperatures near the equator are at least 0.9 of a degree F (0.5 of a degree C) above the historical average for a three-month period. The extended period of warmth in this region of the ocean alters the jet stream and the overall weather patterns across North America.

MODIS Terra and Aqua – March 24, 2023

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A lot of clouds around today, blocking the view of the land below, but still interesting to capture what the satellites see below. LEFT - Terra, March 24th AM, Right - Aqua, March 24th PM.

How the Average High is Sort of A Lie

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The average high temperature reported on the news is actually a lie. 🌡

They don’t usually report the average high but the climate normal high, which is not the average of recorded high temperatures over the past thirty years but a smoothed data set that has various adjustments to account for missing data and errors in measurements, along with suppressing other statistical anomalies like record breaking heat or cold on any one particular day.

Difference Between Climate Adjusted Average High and Actual Average High (March 1991-2020)
When they report on news the average high, it’s not what you think it is.
Day Climate Normal High 1991-2020 Highs Averaged Together 1991-2020 Difference
1 40.0 39.7 0.3
2 40.0 39.7 0.3
3 41.0 38.0 3.0
4 41.0 37.5 3.5
5 41.0 38.6 2.4
6 42.0 39.8 2.2
7 42.0 40.8 1.2
8 42.0 43.8 −1.8
9 43.0 42.8 0.2
10 43.0 43.8 −0.8
11 43.0 42.3 0.7
12 44.0 41.6 2.4
13 44.0 41.9 2.1
14 44.0 43.6 0.4
15 45.0 45.6 −0.6
16 45.0 44.0 1.0
17 45.0 44.8 0.2
18 46.0 43.5 2.5
19 46.0 44.7 1.3
20 47.0 45.8 1.2
21 47.0 45.3 1.7
22 48.0 43.5 4.5
23 48.0 42.9 5.1
24 48.0 47.1 0.9
25 49.0 48.8 0.2
26 49.0 49.0 0.0
27 50.0 51.3 −1.3
28 50.0 51.6 −1.6
29 51.0 52.4 −1.4
30 51.0 52.2 −1.2
31 52.0 53.3 −1.3
Andy Arthur, 3/6/23.
Data Source: National Weather Service, Albany.

NOAA Explains here: https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/understanding-climate-normals

So the average high is kind of like calling twinkies a food.

Strongest earthquake in 40 years startles Western New York | wgrz.com

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Strongest earthquake in 40 years startles Western New York | wgrz.com

Many Western New Yorkers were shook awake on Monday morning by an earthquake.

Earthquakes Canada reported that a 4.2 magnitude quake was detected in the Buffalo region.

2 On Your Side has heard from viewers from all the way in Wilson to Hamburg who felt the quake.

USGS reported that 3.8 magnitude earthquake was detected and was centered about 2 kilometers northeast of West Seneca around 6:15 a.m.