Politics

One thing I’m hoping is that in coming years there will be more open election data posted from states and not-for-profits at the election district level, like is available this year during the redistricting cycle

|

One thing I’m hoping is that in coming years there will be more open election data posted from states and not-for-profits at the election district level, like is available this year during the redistricting cycle. That said, it’s a lot of work to crunch and compile this data as it’s currently presented — mostly broken down by counties and without redistricting it might not be as big of incentive to compile such data, but it would be fascinating to watch election trends as the decade unfolds.

Bill Search – A00831 Election District Shapefiles

|

Bill Search and Legislative Information | New York State Assembly

This exciting new legislation has passed the Assembly and Senate and will be sent to governor ...
"Section 1 amends section 4-102 of the election law by adding a new paragraph to require that election district maps shall be posted on board of elections' website and each board of elections shall make such maps available in a downloadable Shapefile format."

About 2/3rds of counties already have this on their ArcMap REST/Services or other sites, but they aren't always well documented and kept up to date. And in case of Monroe County, they actively try to discourage people from connecting to their server, by requiring a token be generated by a web browser through their interactive site before connecting.

The new congressional districts vs the old

|

The new congressional districts vs the old

In case you are curious. I used blocks rather block groups for reasons of speed, so things may be off as much as 1%.

2022 CD 2012 CD Population in Old CD (part in new CD)
 Percent of New CD
1 1 536,830 69.1
1 3 240,578 31.0
2 1 203,634 26.2
2 2 574,121 73.9
3 2 123,117 15.8
3 3 498,626 64.2
3 4 93,169 12.0
3 5 20,705 2.7
3 6 39,323 5.1
4 2 30,810 4.0
4 4 658,466 84.7
4 5 87,864 11.3
5 5 670,573 86.3
5 6 44,086 5.7
5 7 12,993 1.7
5 8 43,923 5.7
6 6 631,085 81.2
6 14 146,215 18.8
7 6 54,851 7.1
7 7 378,168 48.7
7 8 121,797 15.7
7 12 156,941 20.2
7 14 69,262 8.9
8 7 15,194 2.0
8 8 579,241 74.6
8 9 114,427 14.7
8 11 63,511 8.2
9 8 47,760 6.1
9 9 559,265 72.0
9 10 146,118 18.8
9 11 30,167 3.9
10 7 345,283 44.4
10 8 14,748 1.9
10 9 78,801 10.1
10 10 230,969 29.7
10 12 103,108 13.3
11 10 105,561 13.6
11 11 671,507 86.4
12 10 302,299 38.9
12 12 473,725 61.0
13 10 29,739 3.8
13 12 1,302 0.2
13 13 688,179 88.6
13 15 62,834 8.1
14 12 75,200 9.7
14 14 446,166 57.4
14 15 208,944 26.9
14 16 44,267 5.7
15 13 51,853 6.7
15 14 90,563 11.7
15 15 493,178 63.5
15 16 141,493 18.2
16 16 584,813 75.3
16 17 195,443 25.2
17 17 567,647 73.1
17 18 195,603 25.2
17 19 14,461 1.9
18 18 548,371 70.6
18 19 226,717 29.2
19 19 332,390 42.8
19 22 301,161 38.8
19 23 143,507 18.5
20 20 682,153 87.8
20 21 95,118 12.2
21 19 131,926 17.0
21 20 61,134 7.9
21 21 533,639 68.7
21 22 51,354 6.6
22 22 300,873 38.7
22 24 476,516 61.3
23 23 446,785 57.5
23 26 46,951 6.0
23 27 281,812 36.3
24 21 76,288 9.8
24 22 42,759 5.5
24 23 102,265 13.2
24 24 241,565 31.1
24 27 310,894 40.0
25 25 733,236 94.4
25 27 43,691 5.6
26 26 697,759 89.8
26 27 81,879 10.5

A look at how Democrats voted in recent primaries based on the Congressional Districts set forth by the special master

|

A look at how Democrats voted in recent primaries based on the Congressional Districts set forth by the special master.

2016 Presidential Primary

Congressional District Clinton Sanders Primary Votes Clinton Primary Sanders Primary
1 25,371 22,870 48,254 52.6 47.4
2 30,119 22,017 52,165 57.7 42.2
3 37,393 24,607 62,555 59.8 39.3
4 45,528 26,556 72,636 62.7 36.6
5 57,518 24,006 82,385 69.8 29.1
6 35,116 24,643 60,391 58.1 40.8
7 40,861 38,296 79,803 51.2 48.0
8 50,430 25,750 77,225 65.3 33.3
9 58,049 34,764 93,980 61.8 37.0
10 73,119 49,223 123,436 59.2 39.9
11 26,940 25,118 52,806 51.0 47.6
12 94,720 39,374 135,111 70.1 29.1
13 74,856 43,669 119,811 62.5 36.4
14 46,486 27,755 74,937 62.0 37.0
15 55,863 24,051 80,778 69.2 29.8
16 59,293 26,589 86,259 68.7 30.8
17 44,163 28,773 70,929 62.3 40.6
18 28,058 31,003 37,758 74.3 82.1
19 29,569 42,305 72,303 40.9 58.5
20 36,053 41,527 78,126 46.1 53.2
21 19,371 31,850 51,568 37.6 61.8
22 30,438 29,494 60,439 50.4 48.8
23 27,424 33,267 61,357 44.7 54.2
24 21,028 24,802 37,664 55.8 65.9
25 39,636 36,885 76,913 51.5 48.0
26 45,182 40,935 86,765 52.1 47.2

2018 Gubernatorial Primary

Congressional District Nixon Votes Cuomo Votes Primary Voters Nixon Percent Cuomo Percent
1 9,612 24,837 39,074 24.6 63.6
2 8,600 28,197 36,768 23.4 76.7
3 11,034 32,092 43,853 25.2 73.2
4 9,843 39,412 50,062 19.7 78.7
5 11,014 63,099 74,865 14.7 84.3
6 15,697 35,233 51,890 30.3 67.9
7 35,405 38,493 74,943 47.2 51.4
8 14,035 58,824 74,115 18.9 79.4
9 31,839 63,058 96,527 33.0 65.3
10 59,859 52,835 115,819 51.7 45.6
11 14,629 30,012 45,596 32.1 65.8
12 47,472 63,419 112,452 42.2 56.4
13 35,166 69,194 106,012 33.2 65.3
14 17,560 50,197 68,866 25.5 72.9
15 12,563 56,514 70,111 17.9 80.6
16 16,885 53,164 70,822 23.8 75.1
17 18,861 39,368 59,646 31.6 66.0
18 19,799 28,763 49,318 40.1 58.3
19 24,834 26,213 51,755 48.0 50.6
20 25,597 24,366 52,330 48.9 46.6
21 13,921 14,104 28,476 48.9 49.5
22 15,785 20,801 37,163 42.5 56.0
23 16,011 24,403 41,490 38.6 58.8
24 12,247 14,770 27,330 44.8 54.0
25 18,519 29,005 48,223 38.4 60.1
26 20,244 40,656 62,063 32.6 65.5

 

The new NY 20

|

I was looking through election data this evening and discovered that the new court drawn NY 20 Congressional District is very friendly to Bernie Sanders style socialists, even more so than the old district. Should lead to some very interesting primaries.

Special Master ADP

|

Special Master State Senate Districts with 2018 ADP

The 2018 ADP shown in the lower right is calculated by 2018 Gov, US Senate, Attorney General, Comptroller, Congress (where D&R candidates), NY Senate (where D&R) and NY Assembly (where D&R). 

Special Master Congressional Districts with 2018 ADP

The 2018 ADP shown in the lower right is calculated by 2018 Gov, US Senate, Attorney General, Comptroller, Congress (where D&R candidates), NY Senate (where D&R) and NY Assembly (where D&R).