Politics

Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary | FiveThirtyEight

Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary | FiveThirtyEight

We don’t even know every result of 2022 yet, but the 2024 election has already begun. On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump announced that he would seek a second nonconsecutive term as president. While it’s too early to predict Trump’s chances of going all the way, the former president is the current favorite to win the Republican primary again. But nothing is assured.

First, Trump remains popular and influential among Republican voters. According to Civiqs, 80 percent of registered Republican voters have a favorable view of the former president, and only 11 percent have an unfavorable view. Admittedly, he is a little less popular than on Election Day 2020 when 91 percent viewed him favorably. But the decline has been gradual.

 

Fifteen Years Ago on Columbus Day β›΅

Fifteen Years Ago on Columbus Day β›΅

Fifteen years ago on Columbus Day I was truck cap camping up at Terry Mountain State Forest outside of Peru – Plattsburgh area. Hardly an unusual place for me to be – I camped there in the back country a fair amount during college. I had my BA from Plattsburgh State at the time, having graduated earlier that summer and working temporary jobs until what would be the next day when I would settle into my new job which would become my career.

Columbus Day 2007 was a beautiful day in the North Country with deep blue skies. The apple orchards of Peru smelled amazing, the trees full of apples. Over the weekend I had previously climbed Pok-o-Moonshine and strolled around Point Au Rouche and sat down at Wilcox Dock watching the waves crash along the shoreline of Lake Champlain. All the kind of things that I did in college.

Tuesday of that week I would start my career in the Communications department of the NYS Assembly. It was the entry level researcher position, doing a lot of statistical analysis with Excel, building lists and researching a wide variety of topics. 15 years later, I’m now the Deputy Director in that department, hiring those same fresh out of college graduates, reviewing and checking many of those same things I did starting out. I left research for about a decade, working as a Communications Coordinator and also taking a leave of absence at times to coordinate and run political campaigns.

Sometimes it amazes me that I ended up staying as long as I have. A lot of good people have come and gone. Colleagues have died, left to raise a family or a farm, become lobbyists, city division directors and even one guy – a big hunter – went on to become a big time boutique butcher, custom cutting beef and deer. The stories I could tell. But I won’t because a lot of those people are still around.

Work has not always been fun. It is work, I do it for the money. But I’ve learned a lot, even if sometimes I’ve gotten yelled or taken down a peg after messing something up. But then again, as a director now I’ve seen the opposite sign of the call when I’ve had to either lay down the law or at least explain to people why what they are doing is problematic. At the same time as I’ve moved up in my career ladder, I’ve learned that some things don’t change, as a deputy director or even a unit leader, you still have the top director to report to. Somethings don’t change.

At this point my career has made up roughly a fifth of my living years – more time then I spent between Nursery school, Elementary School and High School combined – and roughly 20% of my life span. Some days went by slowly but combined it seems like it wasn’t that much time. Seen a lot change over the years. George W. Bush was president and Elliot Spitzer was governor when I started, the rumbles of the 2008 Great Recession really only just rumbles at the time. Feels like almost a lifetime ago.

I chose a career in politics and communications mainly because I saw it as a leading industry in the Albany area. I decided to associate with the Democratic party because I saw that as a growth industry in New York State and in the Albany area not because of some ideological reason. If anything my views are more libertarian than anything else, especially when it comes to farming, homesteading and gun rights. But I made peace with working for the Democratic Party largely on grounds of progressive ideals like advancing energy efficiency standards, regulating big banks and other large corporations and reforming and limiting the power of police and government to protect civil liberties.

It’s ultimately a job. I don’t talk about politics at work though I’m sure many of my colleagues are aware of my libertarian views or thoughts on gun rights both from my blog and before I quit Twitter. And my own politics don’t enter my work, although sometimes I’ll share my insight having grown up in country when working with rural clients. But for me, it’s not ideological. It’s about securing results for the members and the institution I serve. I’m here for the money not the religion. I think it makes me more objective.

I am not sure I will stay forever. I am turning 40 in a few months and I expect that to be a decade of a lot of changes in my life. While I like my good wages and my upwards trajadectory in life, there is so much more I want to do in my life than living in Delmar, taking the bus downtown and working in an office. I want to own my own land out in the country, have an off-grid homestead. And I know I’m getting older. Money is good but it can’t buy youth or get time back. Plus who knows, jobs come and go, no matter how hard you work and obtain results. A lot of things aren’t in your control.

In more ways than one, it amazes me that fifteen years would come and go so quickly. Some things that have changed both in myself and world have surprised me. Other things, like my daily routine or my run down apartment haven’t changed as much as I would have hoped. But I see myself growing every day, my experience maturing me and making me a better employee and a person. And outside of work I continue to make personal education and skill mastery a priority, be it programming or many other life skills.

I’ve reached a point in my career where the money is good and my investments are growing. While I’m not there yet my future is fairly secure and my decade and a half of experience can be transferred into other career opportunities. I try to learn every day, make myself better and save for the future I want out in the country. A life based on reality rather than escape.