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Dow Futures Drop, Brent Gains After U.S., Iran Trade Threats — Live Updates

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Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Drop, Brent Gains After U.S., Iran Trade Threats — Live Updates

Stock futures are pointing to another day of steep declines, with war in the Middle East now in its fourth week and the prospect of further escalation hanging over markets.

Oil prices continued to rise, with futures for Brent crude topping $113 a barrel. They are up more than 85% since the start of the year.

NPR

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Someone made $553K on a Polymarket bet on Khamenei’s death : NPR

An account trading under the username "Magamyman" made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday. Bet on Anything, Everywhere, All at Once Up First from NPR Bet on Anything, Everywhere, All at Once

The trades drew scrutiny from members of Congress and critics of prediction markets, who say the platforms invite people with access to classified information to profit on lethal military operations. On Polymarket alone, half-a-billion dollars was traded over when exactly U.S. forces would drop bombs on Iran.

2026 to 2036 | Congressional Budget Office

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The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 | Congressional Budget Office

Higher tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, raising prices for U.S. consumers and businesses. Because many imports are used as inputs in domestic production, higher tariffs also indirectly raise the costs of goods and services produced domestically using imports. In CBO’s assessment, foreign exporters will absorb 5 percent of the cost of the tariffs, slightly offsetting the import price increases faced by U.S. importers. In the near term, CBO anticipates, U.S. businesses will absorb 30 percent of the import price increases by reducing their profit margins; the remaining 70 percent will be passed through to consumers by raising prices. In addition, U.S. businesses that produce goods that compete with foreign imports will, in CBO’s assessment, increase their prices because of the decline in competition from abroad and the increased demand for tariff-free domestic goods. Those price increases are estimated to fully offset the 30 percent of price increases absorbed by U.S. businesses that import goods, so the net effect of tariffs is to raise U.S. consumer prices by the full portion of the cost of the tariffs borne domestically (95 percent).2 In CBO’s projections, the new tariffs increase the price index for personal consumption expenditures by about 0.8 percentage points at the end of 2026 but have negligible additional effects in 2027 and beyond.

In addition to raising prices and reducing consumption, tariffs are projected to reduce investment and output. Tariffs raise the cost of imported machinery, components, and materials, dampening real investment. Investment by businesses relocating production to the United States will offset some of the adverse effect of higher costs of investment. Reallocation of resources to produce products that were previously imported also lowers efficiency and reduces output. Uncertainty about the future path of trade policy further discourages and delays investment by increasing the risk associated with long-term planning. The elevated uncertainty about trade policy during 2025, which peaked in April, reduces investment through 2027 in CBO’s projections.