Politics

Why It Kind of Sucks to Live in Rural Upstate NY 🚜

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I think it’s easy to blame partisan politics for woes of rural Upstate New York, or any rural part of a blue state. It must be fault of the Democrats, the conservative Republicans like to say. But I think it’s more complicated then that — it’s that urban governance isn’t always the best for rural areas. The same can be said with many of the red states down south, where cities find themselves controlled by rural-dominated legislatures who set down policies that are simply bad for cities.

Living in an rural part of a blue state, means a life full of work-arounds for inflexible policies that are created and well meaning for urban areas. The same is true with red states. The problem is the way states are drawn — they’re historical accidents rather then communities of interest. And while activities in one part of a state effect others, often power is used to punish for ideological reasons.

IRC 12/1 ADP vs 2022 Enacted Districts

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I was playing around with RStudio and my ADP calculation code, and looking at competitive races (at least one Democrat and Republican on each line), I calculated the Average Democratic Performance for the enacted districts and those proposed by the Independent Redistricting Commission. The proposed lines would make some districts more competitive, but certainly would make the state somewhat redder.

Assembly District
Democratic Performance (2020)
  Enacted 2022 Lean 2022 IRC 12/1 Proposed Lean IRC Shift
1 52.6% Lean Dem 51.9% Lean Dem −0.7%
2 40.4% Republican 42.0% Republican 1.6%
3 46.2% Lean Rep 45.9% Lean Rep −0.3%
4 52.9% Lean Dem 52.3% Lean Dem −0.5%
5 42.2% Republican 42.3% Republican 0.1%
6 72.6% Democratic 74.9% Democratic 2.3%
7 42.4% Republican 42.8% Republican 0.4%
8 39.8% Republican 40.0% Republican 0.2%
9 39.4% Republican 45.6% Lean Rep 6.1%
10 55.7% Democratic 56.0% Democratic 0.3%
11 60.4% Democratic 58.2% Democratic −2.2%
12 48.3% Lean Rep 49.7% Lean Rep 1.5%
13 60.2% Democratic 45.3% Lean Rep −14.9%
14 44.5% Republican 47.4% Lean Rep 2.8%
15 49.5% Lean Rep 55.7% Democratic 6.2%
16 57.6% Democratic 58.1% Democratic 0.5%
17 42.1% Republican 37.9% Republican −4.2%
18 87.5% Democratic 87.7% Democratic 0.2%
19 44.2% Republican 46.7% Lean Rep 2.6%
20 51.1% Lean Dem 51.5% Lean Dem 0.4%
21 55.8% Democratic 56.9% Democratic 1.1%
22 65.5% Democratic 65.6% Democratic 0.1%
23 56.5% Democratic 57.2% Democratic 0.7%
24 70.3% Democratic 73.9% Democratic 3.6%
25 62.9% Democratic 62.2% Democratic −0.7%
26 56.8% Democratic 60.6% Democratic 3.8%
27 60.9% Democratic 57.6% Democratic −3.3%
28 61.9% Democratic 68.6% Democratic 6.6%
29 88.5% Democratic 85.5% Democratic −3.0%
30 65.7% Democratic 68.2% Democratic 2.5%
31 84.8% Democratic 81.1% Democratic −3.7%
32 87.8% Democratic 87.8% Democratic −0.0%
33 82.3% Democratic 87.9% Democratic 5.6%
34 72.6% Democratic 72.8% Democratic 0.3%
35 76.0% Democratic 76.0% Democratic −0.1%
36 76.4% Democratic 77.5% Democratic 1.0%
37 70.4% Democratic 65.7% Democratic −4.7%
38 70.5% Democratic 64.4% Democratic −6.1%
39 70.4% Democratic 76.4% Democratic 6.0%
40 63.8% Democratic 62.8% Democratic −1.0%
41 70.4% Democratic 51.5% Lean Dem −18.9%
42 86.5% Democratic 87.0% Democratic 0.5%
43 88.0% Democratic 88.1% Democratic 0.0%
44 76.3% Democratic 77.2% Democratic 0.8%
45 52.7% Lean Dem 61.0% Democratic 8.4%
46 60.1% Democratic 58.3% Democratic −1.8%
47 61.8% Democratic 57.8% Democratic −4.0%
48 47.8% Lean Rep 48.1% Lean Rep 0.4%
49 64.1% Democratic 68.2% Democratic 4.1%
50 81.1% Democratic 82.4% Democratic 1.3%
51 80.0% Democratic 77.7% Democratic −2.3%
52 82.2% Democratic 83.6% Democratic 1.5%
53 88.0% Democratic 84.6% Democratic −3.4%
54 91.4% Democratic 90.2% Democratic −1.3%
55 94.4% Democratic 94.5% Democratic 0.1%
56 90.8% Democratic 90.3% Democratic −0.5%
57 87.4% Democratic 87.3% Democratic −0.1%
58 95.8% Democratic 95.7% Democratic −0.1%
59 79.5% Democratic 87.6% Democratic 8.1%
60 94.8% Democratic 94.9% Democratic 0.1%
61 69.8% Democratic 71.6% Democratic 1.8%
62 39.3% Republican 38.5% Republican −0.7%
63 53.4% Lean Dem 46.6% Lean Rep −6.8%
64 44.7% Republican 48.8% Lean Rep 4.2%
65 82.9% Democratic 81.4% Democratic −1.4%
66 82.8% Democratic 82.4% Democratic −0.5%
67 84.2% Democratic 84.2% Democratic −0.0%
68 89.0% Democratic 89.3% Democratic 0.4%
69 86.0% Democratic 85.8% Democratic −0.3%
70 91.3% Democratic 91.2% Democratic −0.1%
71 88.9% Democratic 89.3% Democratic 0.3%
72 88.4% Democratic 88.1% Democratic −0.3%
73 74.3% Democratic 75.6% Democratic 1.3%
74 81.6% Democratic 82.6% Democratic 1.0%
75 83.7% Democratic 84.6% Democratic 0.9%
76 79.4% Democratic 79.1% Democratic −0.3%
77 93.9% Democratic 94.1% Democratic 0.2%
78 90.9% Democratic 90.8% Democratic −0.1%
79 94.1% Democratic 94.1% Democratic 0.1%
80 84.0% Democratic 85.4% Democratic 1.4%
81 81.8% Democratic 82.2% Democratic 0.3%
82 77.0% Democratic 76.2% Democratic −0.8%
83 95.5% Democratic 95.5% Democratic 0.0%
84 92.9% Democratic 92.6% Democratic −0.3%
85 92.9% Democratic 93.0% Democratic 0.0%
86 93.7% Democratic 93.9% Democratic 0.3%
87 91.4% Democratic 91.2% Democratic −0.1%
88 63.9% Democratic 61.2% Democratic −2.7%
89 84.0% Democratic 83.5% Democratic −0.5%
90 62.2% Democratic 63.8% Democratic 1.6%
91 66.2% Democratic 66.1% Democratic −0.1%
92 65.2% Democratic 66.7% Democratic 1.5%
93 62.9% Democratic 62.8% Democratic −0.1%
94 42.2% Republican 47.1% Lean Rep 5.0%
95 61.8% Democratic 64.7% Democratic 2.9%
96 60.5% Democratic 65.9% Democratic 5.4%
97 58.8% Democratic 51.2% Lean Dem −7.6%
98 43.2% Republican 45.8% Lean Rep 2.6%
99 43.5% Republican 45.0% Lean Rep 1.5%
100 52.2% Lean Dem 43.6% Republican −8.6%
101 41.6% Republican 48.4% Lean Rep 6.8%
102 37.8% Republican 42.6% Republican 4.8%
103 56.6% Democratic 55.3% Democratic −1.3%
104 56.6% Democratic 55.9% Democratic −0.8%
105 38.3% Republican 40.0% Republican 1.7%
106 48.9% Lean Rep 44.0% Republican −4.9%
107 44.6% Republican 42.1% Republican −2.5%
108 54.1% Lean Dem 51.6% Lean Dem −2.5%
109 65.8% Democratic 68.4% Democratic 2.6%
110 50.9% Lean Dem 48.4% Lean Rep −2.5%
111 48.4% Lean Rep 49.1% Lean Rep 0.7%
112 42.1% Republican 43.2% Republican 1.2%
113 47.0% Lean Rep 45.5% Lean Rep −1.6%
114 36.2% Republican 38.6% Republican 2.4%
115 46.3% Lean Rep 45.0% Lean Rep −1.2%
116 41.6% Republican 42.2% Republican 0.6%
117 32.4% Republican 35.5% Republican 3.1%
118 31.5% Republican 31.5% Republican 0.0%
119 45.1% Lean Rep 44.6% Republican −0.5%
120 33.5% Republican 36.0% Republican 2.5%
121 36.7% Republican 38.6% Republican 2.0%
122 40.0% Republican 38.2% Republican −1.7%
123 49.7% Lean Rep 49.7% Lean Rep 0.0%
124 37.3% Republican 37.2% Republican −0.1%
125 61.1% Democratic 62.0% Democratic 0.9%
126 42.7% Republican 39.0% Republican −3.7%
127 47.9% Lean Rep 48.3% Lean Rep 0.4%
128 58.4% Democratic 49.4% Lean Rep −9.0%
129 59.2% Democratic 71.6% Democratic 12.4%
130 37.5% Republican 33.5% Republican −3.9%
131 38.8% Republican 41.9% Republican 3.1%
132 33.8% Republican 33.3% Republican −0.5%
133 35.8% Republican 42.4% Republican 6.6%
134 35.4% Republican 38.8% Republican 3.3%
135 49.0% Lean Rep 46.7% Lean Rep −2.4%
136 61.4% Democratic 64.0% Democratic 2.6%
137 69.1% Democratic 82.3% Democratic 13.2%
138 56.1% Democratic 43.4% Republican −12.6%
139 31.1% Republican 30.2% Republican −0.9%
140 54.6% Lean Dem 55.1% Democratic 0.5%
141 86.2% Democratic 85.1% Democratic −1.1%
142 53.6% Lean Dem 50.8% Lean Dem −2.8%
143 54.2% Lean Dem 51.7% Lean Dem −2.5%
144 36.7% Republican 35.6% Republican −1.1%
145 45.0% Lean Rep 47.7% Lean Rep 2.7%
146 53.4% Lean Dem 43.6% Republican −9.8%
147 35.4% Republican 37.7% Republican 2.3%
148 30.1% Republican 30.8% Republican 0.7%
149 57.6% Democratic 72.9% Democratic 15.3%
150 37.8% Republican 37.5% Republican −0.3%
Andy Arthur, 12/3/22. Created in RStudio using gt/dplyr/sf.

ADP calculated based on all competitive races in 2020 LATFOR data,
by VTD intersected against each set of districts.

I Like the Numbers Game Behind Politics.

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I like the math of politics more then the politics … 🔢

Most politics is rooted in statistics and polling these days. While people are showing their ideological tints on social media – myself included – what I find most fascinating is numbers that go behind winning an election, both the polling and final results. While often you don’t hear much about the math and theory behind the game, I do really enjoy listening to the FiveThirtyEight podcast and how the numbers game is played.

Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary | FiveThirtyEight

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Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary | FiveThirtyEight

We don’t even know every result of 2022 yet, but the 2024 election has already begun. On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump announced that he would seek a second nonconsecutive term as president. While it’s too early to predict Trump’s chances of going all the way, the former president is the current favorite to win the Republican primary again. But nothing is assured.

First, Trump remains popular and influential among Republican voters. According to Civiqs, 80 percent of registered Republican voters have a favorable view of the former president, and only 11 percent have an unfavorable view. Admittedly, he is a little less popular than on Election Day 2020 when 91 percent viewed him favorably. But the decline has been gradual.