January 19, 2021 10 AM Update

Sixty days until spring! ๐ŸŒท

This table shows the average high, median, and low temperatures for the next year. Previous year values are shown in parenthesis. The sun angle is the maximum sun angle at solar noon for the day.

Sunset in Woods

Week Date Sun Angle High Median Low
January 19 27.1ยฐ 30 (38) 22 (28) 14 (17)
3 February 15 34.8ยฐ 35 (28) 26 (16) 17 (4)
6 March 4 41.1ยฐ 40 (50) 31 (44) 22 (38)
8 March 17 46.2ยฐ 45 (51) 35 (43) 26 (35)
9 March 28 50.5ยฐ 50 (51) 40 (41) 30 (30)
11 April 7 54.3ยฐ 55 (65) 44 (54) 34 (42)
12 April 18 58.3ยฐ 60 (49) 49 (42) 38 (34)
14 May 1 62.6ยฐ 65 (61) 54 (55) 43 (49)
16 May 16 66.6ยฐ 70 (73) 58 (64) 47 (55)
19 June 3 69.7ยฐ 75 (81) 64 (70) 53 (58)
22 June 22 70.8ยฐ 80 (95) 69 (83) 59 (70)
30 August 18 60.4ยฐ 80 (77) 70 (66) 60 (55)
33 September 8 53ยฐ 75 (81) 65 (71) 55 (61)
35 September 21 48ยฐ 70 (61) 60 (47) 50 (32)
36 October 2 43.7ยฐ 65 (60) 55 (52) 45 (43)
38 October 15 38.8ยฐ 60 (71) 50 (57) 40 (42)
40 October 28 34.2ยฐ 55 (48) 46 (42) 36 (36)
42 November 10 30.2ยฐ 50 (70) 42 (52) 33 (34)
43 November 22 27.2ยฐ 45 (41) 38 (32) 30 (23)
45 December 4 25.1ยฐ 40 (48) 33 (42) 26 (36)
47 December 17 24ยฐ 35 (20) 28 (17) 21 (13)
50 January 8 25.2ยฐ 30 (39) 22 (30) 15 (21)

January 19, 2021 Morning

Good morning! Happy Tuesday. ๐Ÿ‘ท Back to work after the long Martin Luther King Day Weekend. At least it’s not a big deal working from home — work is just around the corner from my bedroom. Two weeks to Ground Hog Day ๐Ÿป . Cloudy and 28 degrees on my morning walk past the Bethlehem Central High School. โ˜ There is a southwest breeze at 5 mph. ๐Ÿƒ. I decided it was decent enough that I would just wear my vest out walking. There are 1/2 inch or so of icy snow on the ground. โ˜ƒ ๏ธThings will start to thaw out at around 11 am. ๐ŸŒก๏ธ A few breaks of sun but not a lot.

Sunday wasn’t too bad, had dinner out at the folks house. ๐Ÿ Mom made baked ziti, it was pretty good. I didn’t end up going out hiking yesterday because my toe is a bit sore and the weather was rather crappy, but I did end up going out for both my evening walk last night and I’m walking today. ๐Ÿšถ Today I think I am going to bundle up and go down to the library to work, as I’m hoping to finish getting my cleaned up install of Windows 10 working ๐Ÿ’ป and also watch the Governor’s budget address. I was hoping for more sun ๐ŸŒค at least later in the week, but at least today will be relatively mild. I guess tomorrow might be a bit more sunny for a while but it looks like it will be getting cold later in the day. ๐Ÿฎ Going to need to get milk later today so I have it for the coffee tomorrow.

Today will have a slight chance of snow showers between noon and 3pm. Most cloudy ๐ŸŒฆ, with a high of 37 degrees at 2pm. Seven degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical day around February 23rd. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. A year ago, we had light snow in the morning, which became mostly sunny by afternoon. The high last year was 38 degrees. The record high of 62 was set in 1929. 8.5 inches of snow fell back in 1886.โ„

Tonight will have a First Quarter ๐ŸŒ“ Moon with 38% illuminated. The moon will set in the west (277ยฐ) at 11:47 pm. The moon will rise at 11:00 am. The Wolf ๐Ÿบ Moon is on Friday, January 29. My birthday. The darkest hour is at 12:07 am, followed by dawn at 6:50 am, and sun starting to rise at 7:21 am in the east-southeast (117ยฐ) and last for 3 minutes and 16 seconds. Sunrise is 37 seconds earlier than yesterday. ๐ŸŒ„ The golden hour ends at 8:04 am with sun in the southeast (125ยฐ). Tonight will have 14 hours and 26 minutes of darkness, a decrease of one minute and 53 seconds over last night.

Tonight will have a slight chance of snow showers between 11pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy ๐ŸŒง, with a low of 23 degrees at 6am. Nine degrees above normal, which is similar to a typical night around March 8th. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. In 2020, we had light snow in the evening, which became mostly clear by the early hours of the morning. It got down to 9 degrees. The record low of -22 occurred back in 1970.

In four weeks on February 16 the sun will be setting in the west-southwest (254ยฐ) at 5:28 pm,๐ŸŒ„ which is 36 minutes and 22 seconds later then today. In 2020 on that day, we had cloudy, snow showers and temperatures between 38 and 25 degrees. Typically, you have temperatures between 35 and 17 degrees. The record high of 61 degrees was set back in 2006.

Looking ahead, Ground Hog Day ๐Ÿป is Next Tuesday, Read Across America Day ๐Ÿ“š is in 6 weeks, Last Day of Winter ๐Ÿ‚ is in 2 months, Pink Moon ๐ŸŒ• is in 14 weeks, Arbor Day ๐ŸŒณ is in 14 weeks, 8 PM Sunset ๐ŸŒ‡ is in 15 weeks, 8:30 PM Dusk ๐ŸŒ† is in 15 weeks, June ๐Ÿน is in 19 weeks, 9 PM Dusk ๐ŸŒ† is in 19 weeks, 8:30 PM Sunset ๐ŸŒ‡ is in 20 weeks, Primary Day ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ is in 21 weeks, Average High is 80 ๐Ÿ– is in 22 weeks, Hottest Time of the Year ๐Ÿ˜… is in 25 weeks, Ugly Truck Day ๐Ÿšš is in 26 weeks, Campfire Day ๐Ÿ”ฅ is in 28 weeks, Average High Falls To 79 ๏ธDegrees โ›ฑ๏ธ๏ธ๏ธ is in 31 weeks, Average High 70 ๐ŸŽ‘ is in 35 weeks, Columbus Day ๐Ÿ›ฅ๏ธ is in 38 weeks, Election Day ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ is in 42 weeks, Beaver Moon ๐ŸŒ• is in 10 months, Cold Moon ๐ŸŒ• is in 11 months, First Day of Winter โ˜ƒ๏ธ is in 48 weeks and 4:30 PM Sunset ๐ŸŒ† is in 49 weeks.

Radio Antenna

Rare disasters, the natural interest rate and monetary policy | NEP-DGE Blog

Rare disasters, the natural interest rate and monetary policy | NEP-DGE Blog

I mentioned several times on this blog that demographic aging is a source of declining interest rates. Now add climate change to the mix. As it looks like declining fertility may also come from climate change, the two shocks may reinforce each other in reducing interest rates. After a decade or two with interest rates kept low by policy, they may not be increasing that much once we get back to “normalศ times.