Proposed County Legislative Districts (12/9) – 2019 County Coroner Race VAP-PW Interpolated
A few weeks back, the Albany County Redistricting Commission submitted another plan after many city legislators and advocates for the minority community had concerns with the proposed plan — and the legislature voted it down. While most of changes didn’t drastically effect the Democratic Performance of the districts, I hadn’t run this data based on a like-year turnout model, which would be the 2019 elections.
The only competitive, county-wide two-way race that year was the County Coroner’s race, which actually is likely a good race to use as a model as most voters don’t have much of an opinion on the County Coroner besides their partisan leanings. To calculate these numbers, I took the 2019 Election District results using old 2019 EDs Shapefile that I had previously saved, then used population-weighted interpolation using the Voter Age Population (VAP) and created block level estimates. This is sometimes called the ESRI-method of interpolation, it is widely used for redistricting analysis. The block level estimate were joined against the block list provided by Albany County Redistricting Commission.
You can get the code here: https://github.com/AndyArthur/r_maps_and_graphs/blob/main/2019-county-coroner-interpolated-to-new-ld.R
| Proposed County Legislative Districts (12/9) 2019 County Coroner Race PW-VAP Interpolated |
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| Proposed LD | Antonio Sturges (DEM) | William B. Keal (REP) | Dem Margin | Dem. Percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 659 | 63 | 595 | 91% |
| 2 | 471 | 43 | 427 | 92% |
| 3 | 535 | 88 | 447 | 86% |
| 4 | 320 | 52 | 268 | 86% |
| 5 | 775 | 84 | 691 | 90% |
| 6 | 466 | 38 | 429 | 93% |
| 7 | 406 | 65 | 342 | 86% |
| 8 | 924 | 145 | 779 | 86% |
| 9 | 1,457 | 461 | 996 | 76% |
| 10 | 1,506 | 288 | 1,218 | 84% |
| 11 | 1,406 | 327 | 1,078 | 81% |
| 12 | 341 | 96 | 245 | 78% |
| 13 | 846 | 147 | 699 | 85% |
| 14 | 892 | 661 | 230 | 57% |
| 15 | 799 | 246 | 553 | 76% |
| 16 | 825 | 294 | 531 | 74% |
| 17 | 647 | 282 | 365 | 70% |
| 18 | 984 | 410 | 573 | 71% |
| 19 | 908 | 846 | 63 | 52% |
| 20 | 853 | 737 | 116 | 54% |
| 21 | 808 | 696 | 112 | 54% |
| 22 | 875 | 791 | 84 | 53% |
| 23 | 1,232 | 1,077 | 155 | 53% |
| 24 | 1,075 | 894 | 181 | 55% |
| 25 | 1,219 | 986 | 233 | 55% |
| 26 | 988 | 904 | 84 | 52% |
| 27 | 849 | 1,003 | −155 | 46% |
| 28 | 891 | 746 | 146 | 54% |
| 29 | 970 | 643 | 327 | 60% |
| 30 | 917 | 460 | 457 | 67% |
| 31 | 1,129 | 977 | 152 | 54% |
| 32 | 966 | 442 | 524 | 69% |
| 33 | 1,318 | 678 | 640 | 66% |
| 34 | 1,712 | 659 | 1,053 | 72% |
| 35 | 1,573 | 814 | 759 | 66% |
| 36 | 1,025 | 840 | 185 | 55% |
| 37 | 961 | 979 | −18 | 50% |
| 38 | 1,059 | 821 | 239 | 56% |
| 39 | 1,041 | 1,222 | −181 | 46% |
| Andy Arthur, 12/26/22. Estimates created in R using block-level voting-age population interpolation (ERSI method) of 2019 Election Results/Districts. | ||||
Basically all of the proposed Colonie LDs, 19 through 28 are competitive but lean Democratic, except for LD 27 which is solidly Republican. A popular Republican incumbent or well-known personality could win those districts or at least make for a tight race in 2023, especially in the current political climate. But Albany County remains quite blue, even if Colonie has a GOP supervisor currently.
One thing of note is the Coeymans district, Legislative District 37 remains largely the same as was from the most of the 2010s. It will be a swing-district, based on the likely turn-out in 2019. It leans Republican in the Presidential and Gubernatoral Elections, and by enrollment, but a lot of independent voters who show up on off-years are Democratic leaning.
The Southern Hilltowns Legislative District 39 (Westerlo-Rensselearville-part of Berne) is nominally a Republican district, but Christopher H. Smith (D) holds it. He is a military-veteran and owns a popular restaurant, but he could certainly loose re-election, depending on who shows up and the climate in 2023. Things are more Republican leaning then four years ago.