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Inflation Reduction Act didn’t contribute to lower inflation

Inflation Reduction Act didn’t contribute to lower inflation

Even President Joe Biden has some regrets about the name of the Inflation Reduction Act: As the giant law turns 1 on Wednesday, it's increasingly clear that immediately curbing prices wasn't the point.

While price increases have cooled over the past year — the inflation rate has dropped from 9% to 3.2% — most economists say little to none of the drop came from the law. What You Need To Know

Even President Joe Biden has some regrets about the name of the Inflation Reduction Act. “I wish I hadn’t called it that because it has less to do with reducing inflation than it has to do with providing alternatives that generate economic growth,” Biden said Thursday at a fundraiser in Utah

As the giant law turns 1 on Wednesday, it’s increasingly clear that immediately curbing prices wasn’t the point

Price increases have indeed cooled over the past year, with the inflation rate dropping from 9% to 3.2%

But economists say little to none of the drop came from the law. Harvard University economist Jason Furman says he can't “think of any mechanism” by which the law would have reduced inflation

“I can’t think of any mechanism by which it would have brought down inflation to date," said Harvard University economist Jason Furman, who added that the law could eventually help to lower electricity bills.

Alex Arnon, an economic and budget analyst for the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model, offers a similar assessment.

“We can say with pretty strong confidence that it was mostly other factors that have brought inflation down,’’ he said. "The IRA has just not been a significant factor.’’

That shouldn't come as a surprise.

When the Inflation Reduction Act was proposed, the Congressional Budget Office said its impact on inflation would be “negligible."

So why the name? It may ultimately help to hold down prices in the future — and it fit the politics of the moment.

NPR

Why the sell-off in bond markets could impact you : NPR

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, a benchmark that is kind of like the S&P 500 for bonds, fell by roughly 15% — its steepest drop since 1976, when it was created.

This year, stocks have staged an impressive recovery — the Nasdaq is up more than 30% so far. But the bond market has barely rebounded.

That's largely because investors are betting inflation will remain above the Fed's target for a while, which means policymakers will have to keep interest rates high.

Ebbing inflation eases rate hike fears on Wall Street | Reuters

Ebbing inflation eases rate hike fears on Wall Street | Reuters

all Street rose on Thursday after producer prices data provided further evidence of inflation cooling in the world's largest economy, and stoked hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon end its monetary policy tightening.

U.S. producer prices barely rose in June and the annual increase in producer inflation was the smallest in nearly three years.

Keeping a lid on optimism, a separate report showed weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, indicating that the labor market remains tight.

Prices Rise 3% As Inflation Continues to Cool – The New York Times

June CPI Report: Prices Rise 3% As Inflation Continues to Cool – The New York Times

Some investors believe that a recession warning that has been flashing on Wall Street for the past year may be sending a false signal and that the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation and still escape a deep downturn.

The signal — called the yield curve — has continued to reverberate in 2023 and is now sending its strongest warning since the early 1980s of a coming downturn. But despite the alarms becoming louder, the stock market has rallied and the economy has remained resilient, prompting some analysts and investors to rethink its predictive power. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index report showed a sharp decline in inflation last month, further buoying investor optimism and pushing stocks higher.