Republican Party

Why nearly everybody wants a indicted felon to be the Republican Nominee for President

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Often I make adage that the reason why bad things happen is because nearly everybody wins in some way when those bad things happen. That’s certainly the case with the ever so profitable mass shootings and probably true with Donald Trump being the Republican Nominee.

Let me explain…

  • Donald Trump if he gets the Republican nomination for President has a very powerful chip to plea bargin away for his federal and arguably state felony charges. Few Americans facing felonies can say they are one election away from the White House and voluntarily give it up for a significant fine and ten years probation and potential house arrest. It is literally the biggest single thing one could literally give up outside of one’s life and liberty for a long period of time.
  • The federal prosecutor wins by being able to stop a dangerous felon from once again being in the White House where he could cause so many problems for the nation.
  • At the same time, the Republican Party could benefit significantly from Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination by the primary system. Should Trump become the Republican nomination then step down, the National Republican Committee would be empowered to name his successor. They could pick a sensible, competitive nominee such as Mike Pence or some other dark horse who depending on the economy and state of world affairs could very competitive against the aging and rather bland incumbent of Joe Biden. Trump is a bad candidate but a plea could get rid of him while keeping the base happy.
  • Don’t underestimate the ability of Donald Trump to excite Republican voters and help boost grass roots efforts, especially through his sense of grievance to the system. While ultimately I see Trump pleaing out the felony charges, I don’t think he’ll stop bashing the big government, rigged system until the day he enters his plea. This excitement will help the GOP turn out voters come election day, without the divisive sib-prime candidate that Trump ultimately is. Indicted felon just writes campaign ads, not that voters needed to be reminded of the obvious.
  • It’s a dream come true for Democrats to be running against a once lost candidate, indicted felon for President. Democrats and the Joe Biden campaign know Trump’s weakness and they know a winning strategy at least in the political environment of 2020. Prior results often do predict future performance although things are changing in the political environment.
  • An indicted felon who says crazy things and loves to sling mud and manure is perfect for the news media and selling lots of advertising for Korean cars and laundry soap. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for television and radio with his short crazy clips and gives the press so much to analyze especially as he faces multiple felony criminal cases that could put him in prison for what would effectively be the rest of his life.

Trump’s Final Pardon

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I think the concept of the self pardon by Donald Trump should he be elected in 2024 is exaggerated. While it’s true that the president may have the power of self pardon, it’s likely to be deeply unpopular and will most likely be the political death of his presidency – as nobody likes it when a politician is primarily self interested and tampers with the administration of justice.

The reason why Donald Trump is still a popular candidate at this point is he was an effective leader at addressing conservative concerns – delivering tax relief, returning regulation of abortion to the states, making limited progress on gun rights and appointing a decidedly conservative Supreme Court. But if the president elects first actions are solely to benefit himself then I find it hard to fathom that he’ll have the popular support to accomplish the rest of his agenda.

A felon for President

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I am pretty sure either Donald Trump will be convicted of a felony unless there is a hung jury with his New York criminal case. Whether or not the case is reversed on appeal, it seems likely that one of the leading presidential candidates will be a convicted felon. This means at least in the State of Florida, he won’t be allowed to vote for himself for President unless of course the legislature decides to change law, just for him.

Not that I’m convinced that this is a bad thing. For too long government has been held in too high of regard, the decisions of millions of government bureaucrats viewed as virtuous by default. There has been a reverence for the American government and those who work for it, even though government workers are just humans with as many flaws and bad decisions that are common not only in private business but in the administration of government.

Government, and our country needs to be knocked down a peg. Government workers, the courts, the police should be viewed with a degree of contempt. They should be looked down as a necessary evil, but something that is not virtuous but as servants of people. A leading presidential candidate who is a felon may forever change how we view our country, start a true discussion of the size and scope of government.

A popular idea in liberal circles lately is that Trump and his allies are rigging the system to allow him and other Republicans to pull off a win in a close election 💡

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I mean, they’re not wrong. The Republicans in red states are being terribly naughty, exploiting conspiracy theories and raw power to make it possible to turn the tables in their favor during extraordinarily close elections.

But to call that anti-democratic, a threat to democracy or down right facist is a step too far in my book. Maybe Republicans will use some sneaky and unfair means to turn the tables in an extraordinarily close election but it’s not the end of the world – there is always another election for whatever office their exploiting power in two to six years, and many other offices will be up for election in the mean time.

The fact is you can sometimes out maneuver an opponent to win a close election. But in that case whoever wins still represents close to a majority of voters. And the candidate who wins on dubious means is unlikely to be that popular, having bathed in stench of dubious means of winning. You’ll have the reins of power for a few years but your opponents party will have all the excitement and likely will deliver majorities to Congress and state houses in the mid terms.

Elections are an approximation of public sentiment. By definition, elections are rigged by all kinds of laws and policies designed to favor incumbents, the status quo and the party in power. But power tends to be destructive in a democracy, often the highest flying stars in politics are those that are the fastest to crash and burn.

I’m not worried about democracy. It will mumble along, even if Trump manages to play the system and get a second term in 2024 with a minority of voters and makes a bigger fool of himself. He’ll have his term, he’ll probably bumble through it like his first term and be gone.

And then there will be another election and life goes on.

Moving out of Upstate New York won’t make you rich

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President Donald Trump has many times suggested that people should move from Upstate New York to places where there are more jobs. In his quote to the Wall Street Journal about two years ago:

“You’re going to need people to work in these massive plants,” Trump told the newspaper. “I’m going to start explaining to people: When you have an area that just isn’t working like upper New York state, where people are getting very badly hurt, and then you’ll have another area 500 miles away where you can’t get people, I’m going to explain, you can leave. It’s OK. Don’t worry about your house.”

This is pretty solid economic advice – people should consider moving to places where there are better jobs – so they have more choices in employment, more possibilities to make more money.

But I’m sure the President is aware there is more to relocating than just selling your home, renting a trailer to tow behind your pickup and moving to a different part of the country. It’s hard to leave your family and friends to move from your hometown to a place where there are more jobs.

Moreover, nowhere are sustainable, long term jobs popping up in the rural countryside or small towns, all of the action in American capitalism is happening in the big cities and metropolitan regions. Like New York City or Los Angeles. You can’t expect to move from rural or small town New York to somewhere in the south or Midwest and instantly have a better life. Part of the price of living in farm country or the mountains is lower wages and less economic opportunities.

Simply said automation and mechanization has eliminated a great deal of rural and small town jobs. Almost all Americans economic activity occurs in large Metropolitan Areas and their suburbs. Most rural areas and small cities are almost entirely dependent on government jobs and welfare, such as school teachers, highway workers, and social security payments even if the legacy industries like agriculture and manufacturing which employee few are highlighted by the politicians. While living in the country is cheaper – you can meet your basic needs more on farm or on the homestead, you still are giving up economic gain by not moving to a big city.

Now to be sure there are political reasons to consider moving to another state – gun laws, restrictions on fireworks, open burning, or cannabis – for example. Rural freedom is better in red states for sure, where the government is closer in sync with the needs of farm families and other rural residents. Or you just want to pay less in taxes in exchange for less services. Rural states lack the costly infrastructure and legacy needs of big states Those are valid reasons for going red state for country living. But not necessarily alone in the search for a better job when most of America outside of metropolitan areas is struggling.